dailylurker Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 3:54 PM, pazzo83 said: i have a feeling we better start getting used to winters that last one month to maybe six weeks. Expand I've been use to that for years in AA County. I moved to Carroll County and picked up a whooping 8" for the season lol. I guess winter in the MA is really a thing of the past it seems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 6:48 PM, jlewis1111 said: Will see who is right. Keep chasing unicorns though. I love snow but every storm trends north out of our area. Truth hurts this year Expand It snows more further north. Got it. Don’t know what we would do without you. Thanks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 8:45 PM, psuhoffman said: It snows more further north. Got it. Don’t know what we would do without you. Thanks. Expand hold on i'm gonna write this down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2022 Share Posted February 23, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 10:37 PM, RevWarReenactor said: Not always. I’ve been hanging out in the upstate NY forum; two things I’ve learned; they are jealous of our coastal nor Easters and two; they complain more than we do. Apparently Syracuse is a snow hole and always gets screwed. Yes; Syracuse. Expand Go explain it to him. Have a nice conversation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/23/2022 at 8:45 PM, psuhoffman said: It snows more further north. Got it. Don’t know what we would do without you. Thanks. Not one storm has trended north this year. That's why you have had no snow this season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 1:34 AM, Ji said: On 2/23/2022 at 8:45 PM, psuhoffman said: It snows more further north. Got it. Don’t know what we would do without you. Thanks. Expand Not one storm has trended north this year. That's why you have had no snow this season Expand Does northwest count? If so the storm that got yanked inland last month would like to have a word... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 Bring on the 70s! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 1:37 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Does northwest count? If so the storm that got yanked inland last month would like to have a word... Expand The Super bowl day event trended right into the lap of Psu land. It was pretty localized but it trended NW across guidance in the few days prior, well other than the GFS, which never figured that one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 12z GFS teasing for around the 10th. Way out there but this is the period where recent ensemble guidance has been depicting a pretty nice h5 look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 GFS has a wave bringing snow the week of March 7 for the last couple of runs. My Hail Mary storm… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 5:08 PM, CAPE said: 12z GFS teasing for around the 10th. Way out there but this is the period where recent ensemble guidance has been depicting a pretty nice h5 look. Expand ‘93 Just keep thinking it and it will come 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 5:08 PM, CAPE said: 12z GFS teasing for around the 10th. Way out there but this is the period where recent ensemble guidance has been depicting a pretty nice h5 look. Expand Seems like there’s a chance for a northern stream clipper/shortwave/thing to bring some snow late next week. along with some cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 End of the run on the 12z GFS has that confluent Bob Chill bowl-ish look. Would be typical if we got that as we hit the middle of March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 6:20 PM, WxUSAF said: Seems like there’s a chance for a northern stream clipper/shortwave/thing to bring some snow late next week. along with some cold air. Expand Yeah I saw that on the GFS. It looks like something that would probably end up further NE. Already coming in a bit too far east at an odd trajectory for our area. Could always trend the other way though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 7:48 PM, CAPE said: Yeah I saw that on the GFS. It looks like something that would probably end up further NE. Already coming in a bit too far east at an odd trajectory for our area. Could always trend the other way though! Expand That’s what euro has. GGEM drops it over us but Apps eat all the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 7:18 PM, mattie g said: End of the run on the 12z GFS has that confluent Bob Chill bowl-ish look. Would be typical if we got that as we hit the middle of March... Expand Just in time for a parade of 40 degree cold rain storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 7:52 PM, WxUSAF said: That’s what euro has. GGEM drops it over us but Apps eat all the snow. Expand All subject to change. Significant model errors in ridge amplitude/ axis and timing of northern stream energy coming south is likely at this range. (as we just saw with the failed Sunday-Monday potential). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 5:08 PM, CAPE said: 12z GFS teasing for around the 10th. Way out there but this is the period where recent ensemble guidance has been depicting a pretty nice h5 look. Expand Mid March is kind of a hot spot for snows in Nina years also for some reason. Even some really awful ones like 1976 managed a mid March fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 8:56 PM, psuhoffman said: Mid March is kind of a hot spot for snows in Nina years also for some reason. Even some really awful ones like 1976 managed a mid March fluke. Expand 2018 was a good one. Classic paste bomb even here. Think I ended up with 7" or so, and you probably did better iirc. Ofc that was another one of those recent "good" Nina winters for eastern areas in general. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2022 Share Posted February 24, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 9:13 PM, CAPE said: 2018 was a good one. Classic paste bomb even here. Think I ended up with 7" or so, and you probably did better iirc. Ofc that was another one of those recent "good" Nina winters for eastern areas in general. Expand I think I had 14” from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 10:48 PM, losetoa6 said: Any 1976 Carroll County details ? Expand it was 3-10-76. A year with very little snow before that. According to coop data it was a general 8-12” across our area. Some specific totals I found. 8.1” in Westminster, 12.5 in Unionville. 12” in Hanover. 9” in Emmitsburg, 10.5 in Parkton 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 11:18 PM, losetoa6 said: Pretty cold week ahead up here except for Tues per HH Gfs . Maybe a early March clipper Expand This is our time to shine. Late feb into mid March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 On 2/25/2022 at 12:08 AM, psuhoffman said: it was 3-10-76. A year with very little snow before that. According to coop data it was a general 8-12” across our area. Some specific totals I found. 8.1” in Westminster, 12.5 in Unionville. 12” in Hanover. 9” in Emmitsburg, 10.5 in Parkton Expand I remember that one I think. I was just a kid and it was a nearly snowless winter and the forecast was for 1-2" iirc. Ended up with close to a foot. School let out early and fun times sledding late that afternoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 On 2/25/2022 at 1:32 AM, Deck Pic said: 4.5" downtown DC on 3/21/2018 +SN that morning...I had a cartopper+ on 3/6/18, but don't recall it And a world series 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 Do you notice how the PNA/EPO and NAO are always dancing? 1) I see Winter pretty much over 2) the +PNA this Jan and Feb might give us a -PNA next Jan and Feb, but with -NAO or AO maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 WB 0Z GEFS teleconnections. No PNA help, but other indices still give us hope the week of March 7…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 The medium range looks pretty active but for now it looks like most of the action will be north of us. Looking ahead, recent GFS op runs have advertised a winter storm that takes a more favorable track for our region around the 10th. Looks active leading up to that and the pattern looks decent, but it remains to be seen if anything can track underneath. The best h5 look on the GEFS is centered on March 10 with a favorable AO and NAO, indication low heights off the Canadian Maritimes, and there is a bit of a signal for a storm. Still out in fantasyland and it is getting kinda late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 On 2/25/2022 at 1:32 AM, Deck Pic said: 4.5" downtown DC on 3/21/2018 +SN that morning...I had a cartopper+ on 3/6/18, but don't recall it Expand My main note on 3/21/18 was that I lost to all three airports (3.7”). 3/6 was very warm ~35 for the snowfall here so I’m not surprised it didn’t collect in DC. 0.9” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 On 2/24/2022 at 10:16 PM, psuhoffman said: I think I had 14” from that. Expand I had 7" here that completely melted by early evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 25, 2022 Share Posted February 25, 2022 The EPS snowfall mean at College Park for the next 15 days is 0.3" of which 0.1" "occurred" this morning. The mean exceeded the 75th PCTL, which was ~0.15". The GEFS snowfall mean for the next 10 days is also low ~0.1" mostly due to one member which gives us 3" on the 6th. This is quite unusual for February - in almost any pattern. I'd be nervous to take the "under" of these model "forecasts". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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