Heisy Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Gefs with a nice signal for this range. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: What a goofy and entertaining D9-15. That’s all I’m going to say about it lol. Was going to upload a forecast gif from tropical tidbits but it was too big. Lol just goes to show what a bonkers setup that would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: Gefs with a nice signal for this range. I was just looking at that. Basically 6 or so members have blues/pinks across the area for next Friday. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: So, there has been a lot of speculation as to why the pattern for the beginning of March has taken such a turn since just last week. I was pretty much in agreement with much of the meteorological community that the beginning of March would be quite warm as the pattern would be breaking down. It appeared that the tropical forcing would move into unfavorable areas of the Pacific for E US winter weather, like towards the Maritime Continent. However, that tropical forcing has become less and less of a factor in the pattern, as the amplitude of the wave looks quite low: So, instead, there must be another pattern driver that's led to such a dramatic change in the NH waveguide. It looks like the culprit is an extratropical cyclone over the W Pacific near Japan. It will develop by the beginning of next week, and it looks to become a highly anomalous cyclone, reaching over 4 sigma below normal SLP: This cyclone will induce an extension of the Pacific jet and anticyclonic wave breaking, which leads to the anomalous ridging over the EPO domain: I don't think that this is a head fake, and there is the potential for a significant high-latitude blocking event. It hinges on the strength of the cyclone in the Pacific, but there is tremendous agreement between models and their ensembles, so I do think that it's a legitimate pattern driver. Something similar to this also happened with Nuri at the end of October 2014, which was also a highly anomalous N Pacific cyclone. Nuri had a tremendous impact on the pattern in November 2014 with regards to N Pacific blocking: Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month. Excellent post. I always love to see you post in here, as the posts are info-filled and never random hype or downerism. This is actually a nice change of pace. We are usually left to try and analyze why a modelled good pattern suddenly degrades, so to see a bad pattern "degrade" is a treat. Of course for my actual forum (the SE) this probably just means the difference between warm rain and cold rain, but I am rooting for the MA and especially the NW crew to cash in. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Excellent post. I always love to see you post in here, as the posts are info-filled and never random hype or downerism. This is actually a nice change of pace. We are usually left to try and analyze why a modelled good pattern suddenly degrades, so to see a bad pattern "degrade" is a treat. Of course for my actual forum (the SE) this probably just means the difference between warm rain and cold rain, but I am rooting for the MA and especially the NW crew to cash in. hmm, I think you guys could still be in for something too. there's going to be enough strong HP in SE Canada that you'll have some chances in NC. the 12z GFS shows how you can get there that kind of amplified -EPO is something that's good for the entire E US 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not a lot of ones show snow, but the ones that do show a good bit. Seems a bit like a go big or go home event looking at the panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: hmm, I think you guys could still be in for something too. there's going to be enough strong HP in SE Canada that you'll have some chances in NC. the 12z GFS shows how you can get there that kind of amplified -EPO is something that's good for the entire E US Like it when you lay out the road ahead….great post. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 52 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month. 12 likes? 1 trophy Just kidding, but we have to break this La Nina pattern. PNA dominates+time, it's like a physics equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: 12 likes? 1 trophy Just kidding, but we have to break this La Nina pattern. PNA dominates+time, it's like a physics equation. bruh 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: 12 likes? 1 trophy Just kidding, but we have to break this La Nina pattern. PNA dominates+time, it's like a physics equation. Now 24 likes and 3 trophies. Something to aspire to, Chuck. Maybe some more PNA talk will get you there... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Not going to snow. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Not going to snow. You sure? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: bruh Pay no mind to him. Nobody else does. Also, shut up Chuck. 3 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 DT is alerting.. winter making a comeback in the east at the end of February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 hours ago, Paleocene said: Moisture will not be the problem, hopefully lol. True, a lot of moisture. But, as always … 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 beautiful look here 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: beautiful look here I hardly know what it means but I agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I hardly know what it means but I agree very cold, lots of overrunning 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I hardly know what it means but I agree think of those lines as highways for storms/air flow. the big ridge out west in the EPO domain is sending Canadian air to the east. and some STJ action down south too. overrunning signal like @brooklynwx99 said 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I hardly know what it means but I agree I'm no expert, but that EPO ridge is delivering cold directly from the Arctic, and that TPV near Greenland is serving as a kind of confluential [made up word] block. Looks like there might be a hint of split flow, too, so there would be good moisture coming in from the southwest up into that cold, and since we have the confluence over the Northeast, disturbances would be unlikely to cut. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 47 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: True, a lot of moisture. But, as always … That map is pretty useless anyway for the purposes of the ultimate objective. It's the total precip depicted to fall over 360 hours on a single an op run, and much of it in the MA would be rain that falls between tomorrow and the end of next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: That map is pretty useless anyway for the purposes of the ultimate objective. It's the total precip depicted to fall over 360 hours on a single an op run, and much of it in the MA would be rain that falls between tomorrow and the end of next week. So you're saying it's not going to snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 @mattie g @nj2va and @brooklynwx99 thanks for the explanation. I understood it was a good look based on the ridge out west and the dip out east but thanks for the more in depth explanation. Always trying to learn a bit more to be a bit less clueless. One thing I would like to ask: how good of a sign is this for storms and whatnot, and what could make this look better or is it already near a realistic perfection. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, mattie g said: So you're saying it's not going to snow? I’m not getting over 2 inches in QDF of all snow? winter cancel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: @mattie g @nj2va and @brooklynwx99 thanks for the explanation. I understood it was a good look based on the ridge out west and the dip out east but thanks for the more in depth explanation. Always trying to learn a bit more to be a bit less clueless. One thing I would like to ask: how good of a sign is this for storms and whatnot, and what could make this look better or is it already near a realistic perfection. it's a good sign. there's pretty notable split flow, so this ups the risk for phasing scenarios and general storminess with the northern and southern streams mingling 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, mattie g said: So you're saying it's not going to snow? The snowfall depicted in our region would occur from the 25th to the end of the run. Not a bad sig at this juncture. EPS isn't as enthused yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: What a goofy and entertaining D9-15. That’s all I’m going to say about it lol. back in my day posting 300+ hr maps would have you laughed out of the thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, snowmagnet said: DT is alerting.. winter making a comeback in the east at the end of February. lol that's the final nail in the coffin then 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Looked like a step back from 12z to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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