February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[baltosquid]

Pretty damn strong Alaskan ridge signal at range on the GEFS. The southern ridge is pretty stubborn, but weakening run to run.

[StormchaserChuck!]

A little too much models changing for the now. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

March 1-3 is probably our next tracking window.

That’s an impressive look. It’s important to keep a “cold regime” in place. IMO, that is one of the most overlooked aspects of what happened in 93. In general, it had been cold and somewhat stormy that year all through Feb and into early March. Keep enough cold close by, and a big storm is possible as you move into March 

[CAPE]

14 hours ago, BristowWx said:

I can’t remember the year but I remember it was one of the few times I saw -0 temps and it was March.  Saw -4 driving through Bull Run Battlefield. Maybe 2015.  Negative anything is rare here any month.  

Early March of 2015 after a significant snowstorm- 6" here I think-  I had a morning low right around zero, might have been -1.

[CAPE]

Just looking at some photos from 2015- what a great period that was from mid Feb to mid March. The classic back loaded winter.

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just looking at some photos from 2015- what a great period that was from mid Feb to mid March. The classic back loaded winter.

It was. But major SSW driven IIRC.

[baltosquid]

If I'm not mistaken the last verified warning criteria storm in Baltimore was March 20th, 2018. If we do get a good event in March to break that drought, it would be a nice "time is a flat circle" moment.

[Bob Chill]

Hey now! That was quick. I haven't compared any ens run over run but the potential down the line didn't exist at all really and now there is a bit of convergence in speeding up the timing. Keep an eye on that part. This "warm" period may end up being a bit shorter than all of us first thought. 

[Maestrobjwa]

38 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

If I'm not mistaken the last verified warning criteria storm in Baltimore was March 20th, 2018. If we do get a good event in March to break that drought, it would be a nice "time is a flat circle" moment.

Wait are you sure? If memory serves we got about 3 inches from that event...but I'll go back and check.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

gorgeous 

Biggest banana I've ever seen 

[Yeoman]

15 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB Latest EURO weeklies say don’t give up yet in March.

Anyone have hour 1110? It's still snowing on the CFS past 1104

[Yeoman]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

March 1-3 is probably our next tracking window.

At least until noon

[baltosquid]

54 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait are you sure? If memory serves we got about 3 inches from that event...but I'll go back and check.

ONE YEAR AGO: The "Spring Snowstorm of 2018" (wmar2news.com) The more I'm researching it the more conflicting info I see. Some places report warning criteria, others not. Guess it varied backyard to backyard. My backyard probably didn't actually break warning criteria based on these totals, though other parts of the city did. Which would mean I haven't seen a warning snowfall since moving to Baltimore a month before that storm, and Baltimore hasn't gotten a flush verified warning criteria snowfall since 2016 I think.

[TSG]

17 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

ONE YEAR AGO: The "Spring Snowstorm of 2018" (wmar2news.com) The more I'm researching it the more conflicting info I see. Some places report warning criteria, others not. Guess it varied backyard to backyard. My backyard probably didn't actually break warning criteria based on these totals, though other parts of the city did. Which would mean I haven't seen a warning snowfall since moving to Baltimore a month before that storm, and Baltimore hasn't gotten a flush verified warning criteria snowfall since 2016 I think.

I remember that storm well. Huge disappointment in DC proper, warm layer ended up pushing north way faster than projected (classic). We got like 3" of sleet after a half inch of snow

[RevWarReenactor]

March 2018 was like 3-4 inches on the grass for me. No street accumulation. I remember it’s snowing like crazy but it was melting just as fast.

it’s hard to believe my streets have literally not been plowed since blizzard of 2016 with plowing criteria being 4 inches. It’s a pretty remarkable run. 

[mattskiva]

12 minutes ago, TSG said:

I remember that storm well. Huge disappointment in DC proper, warm layer ended up pushing north way faster than projected (classic). We got like 3" of sleet after a half inch of snow

We got 6" here in Loudoun from that one.

 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, TSG said:

I remember that storm well. Huge disappointment in DC proper, warm layer ended up pushing north way faster than projected (classic). We got like 3" of sleet after a half inch of snow

You’re thinking of March 2017 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

March 2018 was like 3-4 inches on the grass for me. No street accumulation. I remember it’s snowing like crazy but it was melting just as fast.

it’s hard to believe my streets have literally not been plowed since blizzard of 2016 with plowing criteria being 4 inches. It’s a pretty remarkable run. 

Thank god we don’t measure snow on the street!  
 

Seriously though of all your snow pessimism angles we’ve discussed this is the one I get the least. It’s very very normal for places on the coastal plane in warm micro climate locations as we’ve discussed, to have way less snow on roads. Even up here if I measured snow on my street my avg snowfall would be like 25” instead of 40”.  You act like snow that doesn’t stick in roads doesn’t count. 

[psuhoffman]

Pattern looks promising for March. I’d like to see some blocking but boundary waves can be dynamic in march and that look should put the boundary near us. Not going to waste more time though until it’s inside range. But the warmup might only be a temporary relaxation not a permanent breakdown. 

[snowmagnet]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thank god we don’t measure snow on the street!  
 

Seriously though of all your snow pessimism angles we’ve discussed this is the one I get the least. It’s very very normal for places on the coastal plane in warm micro climate locations as we’ve discussed, to have way less snow on roads. Even up here if I measured snow on my street my avg snowfall would be like 25” instead of 40”.  You act like snow that doesn’t stick in roads doesn’t count. 

Maybe that’s the explanation for DC snow criteria- snow is only measured by what sticks to the runway at Reagan National! Lol

[osfan24]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thank god we don’t measure snow on the street!  
 

Seriously though of all your snow pessimism angles we’ve discussed this is the one I get the least. It’s very very normal for places on the coastal plane in warm micro climate locations as we’ve discussed, to have way less snow on roads. Even up here if I measured snow on my street my avg snowfall would be like 25” instead of 40”.  You act like snow that doesn’t stick in roads doesn’t count. 

It counts way less, at least in my mind.

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thank god we don’t measure snow on the street!  
 

Seriously though of all your snow pessimism angles we’ve discussed this is the one I get the least. It’s very very normal for places on the coastal plane in warm micro climate locations as we’ve discussed, to have way less snow on roads. Even up here if I measured snow on my street my avg snowfall would be like 25” instead of 40”.  You act like snow that doesn’t stick in roads doesn’t count. 

That's hard to believe given the number of 'plowed events' I have had here in that span. I get the UHI there but still. That said, I think his area has been pretty unlucky lately- probably completely missed several good events I had here and got fringed/missed by others that were good further inland.

[RevWarReenactor]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thank god we don’t measure snow on the street!  
 

Seriously though of all your snow pessimism angles we’ve discussed this is the one I get the least. It’s very very normal for places on the coastal plane in warm micro climate locations as we’ve discussed, to have way less snow on roads. Even up here if I measured snow on my street my avg snowfall would be like 25” instead of 40”.  You act like snow that doesn’t stick in roads doesn’t count. 

I get what your saying. I don’t think street measurements should be taken.

 

But in the flip side It’s still a remarkable run. Especially when I get Facebook memories like this one… 

 

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I get what your saying. I don’t think street measurements should be taken.

 

But in the flip side It’s still a remarkable run. Especially when I get Facebook memories like this one… 

 

 

That is pretty remarkable. I can think of 7 times since 2016 roads were plowed here right off the top of my head, and there were probably a couple more.

[dailylurker]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thank god we don’t measure snow on the street!  
 

Seriously though of all your snow pessimism angles we’ve discussed this is the one I get the least. It’s very very normal for places on the coastal plane in warm micro climate locations as we’ve discussed, to have way less snow on roads. Even up here if I measured snow on my street my avg snowfall would be like 25” instead of 40”.  You act like snow that doesn’t stick in roads doesn’t count. 

Are you on the northern end of Parrs Ridge? I saw you mentioned you live on a Ridge near PA border? On on the top of the Southern End 7 miles north of 70.

[Bob Chill]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's hard to believe given the number of 'plowed events' I have had here in that span. I get the UHI there but still. That said, I think his area has been pretty unlucky lately- probably completely missed several good events I had here and got fringed/missed by others that were good further inland.

It's a negative energy thing. Quantum entanglement is real. I don't claim to understand it but those who walk around in a cloud of negativity open the door for universe to help them out in notsogood ways. 

This post is 50% joke and 50% real from my personal experience. Doesn't cost anything to be a positive thinker. Even if it doesn't change the universe, it makes life a helluva lot more rewarding. 

[CAPE]

12z GFS suggesting we might have an event to track before the month is out.

[Scraff]

8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z GFS suggesting we might have an event to track before the month is out.

Hour 234! At least it’s not hour 384. I’m in. 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Hour 234! At least it’s not hour 384. I’m in. 

Only 10 days away!

[Bob Chill]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z GFS suggesting we might have an event to track before the month is out.

Pretty interesting stuff showing on ens means and even fantasy ops.  Not snowstorms but the height pattern. Major confluence signal. I'm not sure if that's even the right word here. Instead of a bowl, ens are showing compressed flow over a fairly large part of the conus. It's another way to get a nice event and it doesn't even need big synoptics. 

I'm not implying a heater is on the way or anything too weenie. Just that I can easily envision what a path to victory looks like with the general ideas being tossed around now. Late feb/early Mar upglide/overrunners are typically MUCH juicier than Jan-early Feb. We'll see how it goes but if things go down the advertised path, it's a different pattern than we've seen all winter and I like it a lot more than compact steep amplified hills.