Ji Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: The ensembles really keep thinking we’ll get into a -EPO gradient pattern eventually!! Been advertising it for weeks now and perpetually been D10+ away. What I do takeaway is increasing confidence that Canada will NOT be entirely flushed with Pac air, so hopefully we can tap a solid airmass again at some point after 2/25. i took your signature...divided the snow by the years...you are averaging 26 inches of snow pretty much since 09-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: i took your signature...divided the snow by the years...you are averaging 26 inches of snow pretty much since 09-10 Yeah, bolstered obviously by 4 historic years in there. Median over that period is 19.5”. Both are higher than the “true” long term mean/median by some amount. I’d guess my true median is pretty close to last year and this year, 16-17”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: The ensembles really keep thinking we’ll get into a -EPO gradient pattern eventually!! Been advertising it for weeks now and perpetually been D10+ away. What I do takeaway is increasing confidence that Canada will NOT be entirely flushed with Pac air, so hopefully we can tap a solid airmass again at some point after 2/25. Yeah that's what I was trying to point out with the EPS map I posted yesterday. If the Sh!t pattern is relatively brief, should still have some workable cold not far to our north, so once the east coast ridge flattens we have a chance for the cold to press south some and get a wave to track along the boundary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yeah that's what I was trying to point out with the EPS map I posted yesterday. If the Sh!t pattern is relatively brief, should still have some workable cold not far to our north, so once the east coast ridge flattens we have a chance for the cold to press south some and get a wave to track along the boundary. GEFS does just that... this is March 2015-esque NOT saying that this March will be anything that extreme, but the advertised pattern could certainly deliver with overrunning events riding the boundary 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah that's what I was trying to point out with the EPS map I posted yesterday. If the Sh!t pattern is relatively brief, should still have some workable cold not far to our north, so once the east coast ridge flattens we have a chance for the cold to press south some and get a wave to track along the boundary. Weather Will said that we were done for the season though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Weather Will said that we were done for the season though. He rolls with the D10-15 snow probability maps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS does just that... this is March 2015-esque NOT saying that this March will be anything that extreme, but the advertised pattern could certainly deliver with overrunning events riding the boundary I'm honestly surprised there haven't been any "confused" reactions to this yet since the map has yellow/orange over us. That said...those two H5 anomaly maps are astonishingly carbon copy-ish looks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm honestly surprised there haven't been any "confused" reactions to this yet since the map has yellow/orange over us. That said...those two H5 anomaly maps are astonishingly carbon copy-ish looks. Was March 2015 a good month for us? I totally forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 march 2014 was prolific for snow around here from start to finish. march 5, 2015 had a legitimate snowstorm...don't recall anything else substantial (looking through old pics and see a freezing rain event to start the month). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Was March 2015 a good month for us? I totally forget I had 10.3” split over 3 events. Largest was 7.5”. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 35 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Was March 2015 a good month for us? I totally forget I think DC itself struggled, but plenty of us just north and west had a decent month. Edit: What WxUSAF said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 48 minutes ago, mattie g said: I'm honestly surprised there haven't been any "confused" reactions to this yet since the map has yellow/orange over us. That said...those two H5 anomaly maps are astonishingly carbon copy-ish looks. I posted a similar h5 map from around the the same timeframe off the EPS yesterday and I got at least a couple I think some people have a hard time interpreting a smoothed mean (understandably), and also context matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 How much do I need to pay to see the GFS go to 400 hours tonight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Op at range but would love to see what the gfs has at the end of the month. Sprawling high pressure and cold to the north and an active southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: How much do I need to pay to see the GFS go to 400 hours tonight? Didn't like hours 360 through 384 ? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Op at range but would love to see what the gfs has at the end of the month. Sprawling high pressure and cold to the north and an active southern stream. I know, it just started to get good at end and then it just stopped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Just now, Chris78 said: Didn't like hours 360 through 384 ? Lol Yeah that was great and all, always like to see snow and stuff on the long range GFS and it was a decent storm. But tell me that this H5 with cold air and a high pressure in place with a low just south of the Florida panhandle that this would not of been the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 5 hours ago, CAPE said: He rolls with the D10-15 snow probability maps. I would be glad to be proven wrong by WB 12Z EPS Member 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 4 hours ago, mattie g said: I think DC itself struggled, but plenty of us just north and west had a decent month. Edit: What WxUSAF said. I can’t remember the year but I remember it was one of the few times I saw -0 temps and it was March. Saw -4 driving through Bull Run Battlefield. Maybe 2015. Negative anything is rare here any month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 I still remain pessimistic at least the next 10 days or so. Maybe before the end of next work week there will be something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 WB Latest EURO weeklies say don’t give up yet in March. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB Latest EURO weeklies say don’t give up yet in March. Nobody was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 So I'm going to be in Minneapolis and LA Crosse Wisconsin next week Monday through Friday...gfs looks tasty 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 32 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: So I'm going to be in Minneapolis and LA Crosse Wisconsin next week Monday through Friday...gfs looks tasty I have family in River Falls. Enjoy the area! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: I can’t remember the year but I remember it was one of the few times I saw -0 temps and it was March. Saw -4 driving through Bull Run Battlefield. Maybe 2015. Negative anything is rare here any month. Lots of -5 to -10 in central VA that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowsux Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB Latest EURO weeklies say don’t give up yet in March. I believe this will happen verbatim. JB promises a delayed spring, and the "warmth" shown on the models is false. False spring! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 I believe this will happen verbatim. JB promises a delayed spring, and the "warmth" shown on the models is false. False spring!Jb has predicted false springs since 2002 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 gorgeous 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 March 1-3 is probably our next tracking window. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 0z GEFS brings some pretty respectable cold air south and eastward. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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