Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I'd like to know why we get this kind of track now when we couldn't earlier this winter when we had more cold...lol Is it something with shorter wavelengths making the tendencies of that particular season less? Shorter wavelengths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 10:36 PM, Maestrobjwa said: I'd like to know why we get this kind of track now when we couldn't earlier this winter when we had more cold...lol Is it something with shorter wavelengths making the tendencies of that particular season less? Shorter wavelengths? Expand I hope this is rhetorical, but either way I won't attempt to answer your question based on a model simulation 10 days out that will never come to fruition. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 11:38 PM, CAPE said: I hope this is rhetorical, but either way I won't attempt to answer your question based on a model simulation 10 days out that will never come to fruition. Expand Yeah it kinda is...but I've seen this happen in previous seasons where we couldn't get something tucked in all winter, yet in late Feb/March we'd get something but it would be too warm...Could just be random I guess, but I was curious whether shorter wavelengths don't behave the same way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 11:43 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah it kinda is...but I've seen this happen in previous seasons where we couldn't get something tucked in all winter, yet in late Feb/March we'd get something but it would be too warm...Could just be random I guess, but I was curious whether shorter wavelengths don't behave the same way. Expand Different outcomes than the early/mid winter 'seasonal trends' often occur in late winter/early Spring for a variety of reasons, but in general terms the atmosphere is warming and the base state and associated drivers are shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 11:55 PM, CAPE said: Different outcomes than the early/mid winter 'seasonal trends' often occur in late winter/early Spring for a variety of reasons, but in general terms the atmosphere is warming and the base state and associated drivers are shifting. Expand I've grown to love the back half of snow climo season. You get these killer warm days where you can start knocking out spring projects but just as quick as the warmth comes, it can get kicked right back out with a threat. Late Nina style winters that had front side cold can def flip warm and never come back. That's prob favored. My gut says the epo isn't done. I'm expecting the epo and pna ridges to come back into view or overhead within 2 weeks. Until then, time to start fencing my back yard and get ready to grow food. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 2:32 PM, Bob Chill said: I've grown to love the back half of snow climo season. You get these killer warm days where you can start knocking out spring projects but just as quick as the warmth comes, it can get kicked right back out with a threat. Late Nina style winters that had front side cold can def flip warm and never come back. That's prob favored. My gut says the epo isn't done. I'm expecting the epo and pna ridges to come back into view or overhead within 2 weeks. Until then, time to start fencing my back yard and get ready to grow food. Expand I doubt we get a week+ favorable period for the rest of the snow season. I’d expect anymore snow chances will be a well-timed wave with a transient cold airmass and N/W will likely be heavily favored over the coastal plain. But it’s certainly possible we get another event or two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 2:41 PM, WxUSAF said: I doubt we get a week+ favorable period for the rest of the snow season. I’d expect anymore snow chances will be a well-timed wave with a transient cold airmass and N/W will likely be heavily favored over the coastal plain. But it’s certainly possible we get another event or two. Expand All my experience in this silly game tells me the exact same thing. We had our standard compressed cold/active period and now it's time to let it all go... but I can't shake the intuitive feeling. Maybe it's snowflakes falling. Maybe it's my subconscious weenie. Maybe it's the DMT. Not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 2:32 PM, Bob Chill said: I've grown to love the back half of snow climo season. You get these killer warm days where you can start knocking out spring projects but just as quick as the warmth comes, it can get kicked right back out with a threat. Late Nina style winters that had front side cold can def flip warm and never come back. That's prob favored. My gut says the epo isn't done. I'm expecting the epo and pna ridges to come back into view or overhead within 2 weeks. Until then, time to start fencing my back yard and get ready to grow food. Expand 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Open those blinds!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Extended GEFS also shows improvement on the Pac side for early March. Bob's gut plus LR guidance brings back the EPO ridge. I'm in! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 2:46 PM, CAPE said: Open those blinds!! Expand Thank god. Not ready for spring until June…not ready for summer ever 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 3:38 PM, BristowWx said: Thank god. Not ready for spring until June…not ready for summer ever Expand I get mini depression thinking about the return of bugs and muggy Spring days, and all the work I will need to do outside. Inevitable. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 3:40 PM, CAPE said: I get mini depression thinking about the return of bugs and muggy Spring days, and all the work I will need to do outside. Inevitable. Expand Sawyer Picaridin changed my summer life. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 3:47 PM, nw baltimore wx said: Sawyer Picaridin changed my summer life. Expand I'll have to try that. I mostly get the mosquitoes under control by killing the larvae early. Always chiggers around though. Then there is the carpenter bee issue, although the traps keep them under control for the most part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Literally the only thing that bothers me about the warmer months is the return of Dark Fishing Spiders. They are pretty much the largest (4-4.5” leg-span) native spider in the US besides the desert tarantula. My house is in the woods on the bay. It could not be more of a perfect habitat for them. They are the only kill-on-sight bug/arachnid in my mind. Even if they are outside on the property, it’s BB gun time. They WILL get in the house. We have dark wood trim around everything. That is their favorite shit. Such god-awful creatures. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Day 15-16 Fantasy range WB 12Z GFS…. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 5:18 PM, Weather Will said: Day 15-16 Fantasy range WB 12Z GFS….Just need a 100 mile north shift 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 3:40 PM, CAPE said: I get mini depression thinking about the return of bugs and muggy Spring days, and all the work I will need to do outside. Inevitable. Expand And get in shape for me. Late night model watching and snow days are fattening and boozy. Seems like kicking that into gear is prudent based on LR trends….eh, I will wait for the day 15-16 event then get my life in order. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 5:56 PM, Ji said: On 2/13/2022 at 5:18 PM, Weather Will said: Day 15-16 Fantasy range WB 12Z GFS…. Expand Just need a 100 mile north shift Expand Think we have enough time to will this one north? LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 WB GEPS likes the end of the month too…perhaps we won’t have to wait for a mid March Hail Mary. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 4:25 PM, T. August said: Literally the only thing that bothers me about the warmer months is the return of Dark Fishing Spiders. They are pretty much the largest (4-4.5” leg-span) native spider in the US besides the desert tarantula. My house is in the woods on the bay. It could not be more of a perfect habitat for them. They are the only kill-on-sight bug/arachnid in my mind. Even if they are outside on the property, it’s BB gun time. They WILL get in the house. We have dark wood trim around everything. That is their favorite shit. Such god-awful creatures. Expand Get this. Been using it for years around the perimeter of the house, door sills etc. Use a garden sprayer and spray every month in the Spring, Summer, and into the Fall. Great stuff. https://www.domyown.com/suspend-sc-p-40.html?keyword=suspend sc&gclid=CjwKCAiA9aKQBhBREiwAyGP5lbkKF02o_641wOww3TPBLXPleQvJB5FdbZNn3Ir1s0ftj6C5RkbR8BoCJFwQAvD_BwE eta- the residual it leaves is transparent, so it wont leave anything visible on the surfaces. That was one of my priorities when I selected it, given I have a log home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 5:56 PM, Ji said: On 2/13/2022 at 5:18 PM, Weather Will said: Day 15-16 Fantasy range WB 12Z GFS…. Expand Just need a 100 mile north shift Expand …all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Life Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 3:52 PM, CAPE said: I'll have to try that. I mostly get the mosquitoes under control by killing the larvae early. Always chiggers around though. Then there is the carpenter bee issue, although the traps keep them under control for the most part. Expand Which traps do you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 8:27 PM, Lucketts Life said: Which traps do you use? Expand They all have the same basic design, and you can make them yourself. You can buy them on Amazon. I have a variety. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 6:21 PM, Weather Will said: WB GEPS likes the end of the month too…perhaps we won’t have to wait for a mid March Hail Mary. Expand I'm putting all of my chips in on the late February to Early March period for our biggest snowfall. I have some ground to make up in the snowfall contest and this feels like a year for a fluke storm. We're Fluke Due! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 This isn't a bad h5 look on the EPS for the end of the month. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 ^woof, I dunno. Doesn’t look like any cold air around with Canada scoured out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 9:45 PM, WxUSAF said: ^woof, I dunno. Doesn’t look like any cold air around with Canada scoured out. Expand It's not bad, and given it looks like we will be baking on the EC prior that, this period might be the first chance for something to track underneath with some decent cold around. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 "Not bad" means it isn't close the blinds time lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 On 2/13/2022 at 10:08 PM, CAPE said: "Not bad" means it isn't close the blinds time lol. Expand Ha ok fair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now