February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WinterWxLuvr]

Fits right in with my hopes that nothing good shows until 48 hours.

[aldie 22]

When a model shows snow for Saturday night/Sunday the cry is....it's only Wednesday....when it doesn't show snow....it's already Wednesday. What a motley bunch 

[CAPE]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

Yep. Not as deep and vort interaction was more disorganized. Another touchy setup.

Touchy is the word to describe just about every storm this winter. Subtle differences in the timing and interplay make big differences in the outcome. The nature of fast, progressive flow. 

On to 0z!

[CAPE]

Oops forgot about the 18z Euro. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Fits right in with my hopes that nothing good shows until 48 hours.

Yeah but when during this particular winter has something good shown up at 4i hours? Usually when a downward trend happens (usually on Wednesday, lol), it hasn't come back...

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS actually caved a decent amount toward the 12z Euro.

We might be seeing the 100 hour convergence. It’s just not converging to the solution we want so some will cling to “it’s still x hours away”. 
 

It’s not done and every so often something crazy can happen. Nothing is certain. But as we cross the magic 100 hour threshold again it’s in the unlikely category.  Whenever we need the most extreme solution of all guidance to be right, I don’t care which model that is, it’s not likely. 90% of the time the reality is towards the middle of the spread of permutations not an extreme. We keep rooting for the most amplified or least amplified options and that’s not a winning strategy. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Fast progressive flows yield more frustration than not--that's a lesson from this winter. You gotta basically try to catch the scraps as they fly by if you're not right on the coast and can catch part of a Miller B. We were on a mini-heater for one week...after that mostly swings and misses, unfortunately.

[H2O]

9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

When a model shows snow for Saturday night/Sunday the cry is....it's only Wednesday....when it doesn't show snow....it's already Wednesday. What a motley bunch 

It’s only Wednesday but it’s Wednesday 

[WinterWxLuvr]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Touchy is the word to describe just about every storm this winter. Subtle differences in the timing and interplay make big differences in the outcome. The nature of fast, progressive flow. 

On to 0z!

That’s what I’ve been saying. This is very delicate. It only takes small differences to make a big surface change. 

[NorthArlington101]

I realize this is much, much less of a disaster for me but I expected a lot less forum-wide considering the doom and gloom in this room. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Oops forgot about the 18z Euro. 

 

14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I bet HH Euro makes a baby move towards the 12z and 6z Gfs and sucks u back in

Just a reminder that unless the 18z euro shows an actual hit the 18z suite was a net negative.  I know how this game goes. Euro shows a slight improvement over its pathetic 12z solution and suddenly some get sucked in and we see “it’s trending better 3+ days left”. But trends in one individual model are irrelevant. It’s the trend across guidance that matters. If the most amplified guidance is trending less amplified and the least amplified trends more that’s not a trend it’s just convergence.  We needed the Gfs and Ukmet from last night to hold and everything else to trend to them. Instead we saw everything converge on a middle ground today. And that’s always the most likely outcome.  But the middle ground is a bad result for us unfortunately. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The s/w in question is also way the hell in the NPAC. Typical sampling issues apply.

See, this isn’t just some MA weenieism. It matters.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I realize this is much, much less of a disaster for me but I expected a lot less forum-wide considering the doom and gloom in this room. 

Convergence of the members will mean the max stripe will increase at this range but the axis continues to trend south. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I realize this is much, much less of a disaster for me but I expected a lot less forum-wide considering the doom and gloom in this room. 

Yeah, that wouldn’t be a reason for me to not be ecstatic. It’s the same goddamn bullshit I’ve looked at all winter. But who’s keeping score 
 

I will promise you we will see many changes going forward.

[MillvilleWx]

This is a drive-by post telling you, "La Ninas in the Mid Atlantic suck." 

There's several variables necessary for us to get solid storms in the sub-forum in a northern stream dominant setup. Small shifts in amplitude and longitudinal structure of the mean trough can mean whether we get a decent hit or it scurries to the north/south. 

That said, the GFS was a broader look, but it still managed to get snow into the area with a solid snowfall for Rt 50 on south. A sharper trough should help areas to the north. Time will tell if this trend continues, but the setup is far from dead. I would just temper expectations for places north of I-70 for this one. Further south you are, the better the chances are at the moment.  

[Chris78]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I realize this is much, much less of a disaster for me but I expected a lot less forum-wide considering the doom and gloom in this room. 

Story of the winter

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

See, this isn’t just some MA weenieism. It matters.

You’re giving valid reasons why it “could” pleasantly surprise. It’s possible. I hope I’m wrong and it surprises. Won’t be the first time I’ve been dead wrong about something. But I’m just not in a rush to set myself up for disappointment. This has all the same flaws and issues as other recent setups.  Why convince myself it’s going to end any better when the most likely outcome is the same?   I’m still gonna track. Why not set the bar low then be pleasantly surprised instead of investing and being frustrated when everything trends to exactly what climo in a positive NAO progressive pattern says is most likely. 

[NorthArlington101]

Convergence of the members will mean the max stripe will increase at this range but the axis continues to trend south. 

That’s the GFS, but that is a mostly accurate summation of the GEFS as well, though the QPF swath did actually go down a decent bit.

[Snowfan96]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why not set the bar low then be pleasantly surprised instead of investing and being frustrated when everything trends to exactly what climo in a positive NAO progressive pattern says is most likely. 

this has been my approach the entire season. it’s not a favorable pattern for the mid atlantic, so it’s best to keep expectations low and realistic until truly convincing data points otherwise

[87storms]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is a drive-by post telling you, "La Ninas in the Mid Atlantic suck." 

There's several variables necessary for us to get solid storms in the sub-forum in a northern stream dominant setup. Small shifts in amplitude and longitudinal structure of the mean trough can mean whether we get a decent hit or it scurries to the north/south. 

That said, the GFS was a broader look, but it still managed to get snow into the area with a solid snowfall for Rt 50 on south. A sharper trough should help areas to the north. Time will tell if this trend continues, but the setup is far from dead. I would just temper expectations for places north of I-70 for this one. Further south you are, the better the chances are at the moment.  

i think another point about this system is how much of it will stick after a week in the 50s.  i know it can if temps fall quick enough, but it's another variable working against us here.  i've been looking at the gfs periodically and was trying to figure out how it's even getting that stripe of snow.  i guess it's due to mid level forcing because the surface low is ots.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said:

this has been my approach the entire season. it’s not a favorable pattern for the mid atlantic, so it’s best to keep expectations low and realistic until truly convincing data points otherwise

2 

[BristowWx]

Channel 9 is buying less snow of 18z…saying it’s over pretty much…the suck too

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is a drive-by post telling you, "La Ninas in the Mid Atlantic suck." 

There's several variables necessary for us to get solid storms in the sub-forum in a northern stream dominant setup. Small shifts in amplitude and longitudinal structure of the mean trough can mean whether we get a decent hit or it scurries to the north/south. 

That said, the GFS was a broader look, but it still managed to get snow into the area with a solid snowfall for Rt 50 on south. A sharper trough should help areas to the north. Time will tell if this trend continues, but the setup is far from dead. I would just temper expectations for places north of I-70 for this one. Further south you are, the better the chances are at the moment.  

Agree with all this. Unfortunately 

[clskinsfan]

DT makes a post about 90% of the MA getting snow and it all collapses. Never fails.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That’s the GFS, but that is a mostly accurate summation of the GEFS as well, though the QPF swath did actually go down a decent bit.

That’s even worse. That had me getting 9” 2 runs ago. Lol. 

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This is a drive-by post telling you, "La Ninas in the Mid Atlantic suck." 

There's several variables necessary for us to get solid storms in the sub-forum in a northern stream dominant setup. Small shifts in amplitude and longitudinal structure of the mean trough can mean whether we get a decent hit or it scurries to the north/south. 

That said, the GFS was a broader look, but it still managed to get snow into the area with a solid snowfall for Rt 50 on south. A sharper trough should help areas to the north. Time will tell if this trend continues, but the setup is far from dead. I would just temper expectations for places north of I-70 for this one. Further south you are, the better the chances are at the moment.  

I'm glad a red tagger said that, lol So it's not an overzgenralization, then! Too much has to time up right, and we don't do perfect timing that well here. Fast NS, bunch if waves screaming across...ack! I took a guess that we'd see 13-15"...a prediction that looks, unfortunately, safe if we can't get anything next week/weekend. But this is kinda what they do...

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

DT makes a post about 90% of the MA getting snow and it all collapses. Never fails.

Yes I knew when I saw that it was the death knell…and the poison has been ingested..now we wait….0z will further weaken things…by tomorrow we will be smoking cirrus and wondering when we should start our detox exercise plan for summer. 

[psuhoffman]

Imma check out for a bit.  Im starting to sound like Ji so…. Im not mad or even frustrated, I think it’s just I’ve accepted it is what it is and others are still trying to stay positive and good for them!  If things turn around I’ll get on board. 

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Imma check out for a bit.  Im starting to sound like Ji so…. Im not mad or even frustrated, I think it’s just I’ve accepted it is what it is and others are still trying to stay positive and good for them!  If things turn around I’ll get on board. 

How ya feelin about next winter? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

This is extremely reminiscent of every storm this winter....sharp trough trends broader, NS not as digging, stj escapes or phases just a hair late. I will be the first to congratulate @CAPE and others in the newly announced snow capital of the Mid Atl.