February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Remember though, we don’t want it to show on models until Saturday lol

Some actually say and mean that…but for the most part 90% of storms end up hitting the general place they bullseye once inside 100 hours. There are some adjustments on the fringes but once we get to 100 hours the guidance has been really good the last few years. Seems between 150 to 100 hours is when the convergence on a close to reality solution happens. We’re in that zone now. And it’s trending better. Problem is that trend could end anytime and very soon I suspect we see guidance find something close to the final outcome and we still have a bit of work to do. 
 

We haven’t had much luck getting the SS to time up with the NS lately. Our best chances came when the NS simply dug enough to get it done itself. 

[LP08]

ICON is a late bloomer that hammers NYC on North.  Some snow for the area though.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

ICON is a late bloomer that hammers NYC on North.  Some snow for the area though.

Sounds about Nina!

[stormtracker]

Stuck in a meeting where my manager likes to hear himself talk. Pbp from me postponed until 18z i guess. The way this meeting is going, maybe not until 0z.  

[LP08]

I mean, at 132 hrs...We've tried to will storms back with much worse looks than this.  

 

EDIT:  THE ICON SUCKS

[WinterWxLuvr]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sounds about Nina!

Not even close to a Miller B. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I feel a storm coming. Not gonna tell ya where I feel it 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Not even close to a Miller B. 

Yeah but ain't it still the same ol' late/sloppy phasing though?

[mattie g]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but ain't it still the same ol' late/sloppy phasing though?

That's not a feature of a Nina. It's just a timing thing. Causation does not equal correlation.

[LP08]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but ain't it still the same ol' late/sloppy phasing though?

That's a no blocking issue, not specifically just a nina issue.

[WinterWxLuvr]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Some actually say and mean that…but for the most part 90% of storms end up hitting the general place they bullseye once inside 100 hours. There are some adjustments on the fringes but once we get to 100 hours the guidance has been really good the last few years. Seems between 150 to 100 hours is when the convergence on a close to reality solution happens. We’re in that zone now. And it’s trending better. Problem is that trend could end anytime and very soon I suspect we see guidance find something close to the final outcome and we still have a bit of work to do. 
 

We haven’t had much luck getting the SS to time up with the NS lately. Our best chances came when the NS simply dug enough to get it done itself. 

The idea for the storm is well established. It all just happens to be a little late for us. That’s an adjustment that can pretty easily happen within 48.

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but ain't it still the same ol' late/sloppy phasing though?

But that isn’t what a Miller B (Nina) is. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, mattie g said:

That's not a feature of a Nina. It's just a timing thing. Causation does not equal correlation.

100%

[WinterWxLuvr]

This has a chance y’all. I really believe that. We can’t miss every chance either. It’s the WDI

[Solution Man]

Any PBP, I know trackers in a mtg

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But that isn’t what a Miller B (Nina) is. 

So the Miller B, then...is just when it's all NS and transfers at our latitude then bombs out? Rather than a sloppy phase that comes together too late? (I know there was debate over the previous NE blizzard, lol)

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The idea for the storm is well established. It all just happens to be a little late for us. That’s an adjustment that can pretty easily happen within 48.

It could. But how often in the last 5 years have we said that. And how often did some adjustment happen in the last 48 hours that actually helped in a significant way?  The fringe areas will adjust of course. But it seems increasingly rare that we actually see major synoptic changes that move the core of a storm that much in the final 48 hours anymore.  I think if we are really in the game we will see major improvements in the next 24 hours. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This has a chance y’all. I really believe that. We can’t miss every chance either. It’s the WDI

Hey I do the WDI around here  My WDI says we are indeed due for a big one...but not sure if this month or next year...

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So the Miller B, then...is just when it's all NS and transfers at our latitude then bombs out? Rather than a sloppy phase that comes together too late? (I know there was debate over the previous NE blizzard, lol)

I believe that this is simply a miller A that bombs out too late for us. The current GFS and Icon have a low pressure off the coast south of NC. This is due to a SS and NS component that phases too late. This picture of the 6z GFS shows how it is a miller A due to the low off the coast and no miller B element. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So the Miller B, then...is just when it's all NS and transfers at our latitude then bombs out? Rather than a sloppy phase that comes together too late? (I know there was debate over the previous NE blizzard, lol)

Who cares lol. All the energy of interest originates in the NS- just go to h5 vorticity and hit play. It all enters from the N PAC and drops in on the east side of the amped ridge. What matters is the interplay between those waves.

[Amped]

Gfs is slower with the leading edge of the northern stream. Probably going west of 6z.

Edit: That didn't work out too well. Southern stream didn't cooperate.

[CAPE]

Y'all need to stop with the Miller ABCZ #^%@&!! 

 

[Yeoman]

9 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Any PBP, I know trackers in a mtg

Here's some php.. don't worry, my 5th grade niece was able to figure it out

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conusncep.php

[North Balti Zen]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Y'all need to stop with the Miller ABCZ #^%@&!! 

 

that means you @Maestrobjwa - cut it out

[mattie g]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Y'all need to stop with the Miller ABCZ #^%@&!! 

And trying to find an always-perfect correlation between a given hemispheric pattern and the weather in your backyards on a specific day and time.

[WxUSAF]

Through 108 I do not think this is the GFS run we wanted. Leaving more every back in TX (seems familiar) and northern stream isn’t digging as much. 

[stormtracker]

Debacle

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Through 108 I do not think this is the GFS run we wanted. Leaving more every back in TX (seems familiar) and northern stream isn’t digging as much. 

What's up with the snow on the 12z GFS across the region starting at hour 114? 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

that means you @Maestrobjwa - cut it out

I ain't start that, though @WinterWxLuvrbrought it up. I was talking more about the NS dominance messing stuff up. I see that there's more to it, though.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

What's up with the snow on the 12z GFS across the region starting at hour 114? 

The northern stream not digging as much gives us a consolation prize.