stormtracker Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Just now, Ji said: how did the ukie fail to produce something from that setup? Good question, I was scared when I saw the H5 map. Then saw the surface and was like...whew. Euro looks like shit too. We are going to get something before the end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Good question, I was scared when I saw the H5 map. Then saw the surface and was like...whew. Euro looks like shit too. We are going to get something before the end of Feb. looks like maybe the northern stream squashed the southern stream. Dosent matter...ukmet may be the worst model ive ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Good question, I was scared when I saw the H5 map. Then saw the surface and was like...whew. Euro looks like shit too. We are going to get something before the end of Feb. Just worried it will be warm and rainy! Time is running out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: looks like maybe the northern stream squashed the southern stream. Dosent matter...ukmet may be the worst model ive ever seen Well, next to Deep Thunder.... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ji said: how did the ukie fail to produce something from that setup? Destructive interference in the NS. Same with the Euro. The 0z run showed the way, but good luck getting that timing in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: Destructive interference in the NS. Same with the Euro. The 0z run showed the way, but good luck getting that timing in reality. lol what are the chances for nino modoki next year? That may be our only hope for the next 12 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol what are the chances for nino modoki next year? That may be our only hope for the next 12 months Nino is looking possible if not likely. No idea about Modoki. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: lol what are the chances for nino modoki next year? That may be our only hope for the next 12 months It's been more than 10 years lol, but idk the frequency. Maybe every 20? Psu would know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ji said: lol what are the chances for nino modoki next year? That may be our only hope for the next 12 months 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nino is looking possible if not likely. No idea about Modoki. 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's been more than 10 years lol, but idk the frequency. Maybe every 20? Psu would know. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-97111-y ETA: for anyone that doesn’t like to read the short of it is that using this method apparently modoki ninos can be predicted in advance and they are predicting one next year. 6 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 My feeling is changes galore regarding day 6-10 are coming. 10 days from now we might be saying damn that was fun. Lots of potential. Hope nothing shows up on a model outside of 48 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 7, 2022 Author Share Posted February 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: My feeling is changes galore regarding day 6-10 are coming. 10 days from now we might be saying damn that was fun. Lots of potential. Hope nothing shows up on a model outside of 48 hours. This is what we need in here. Thanks for the optimism! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: It's been more than 10 years lol, but idk the frequency. Maybe every 20? Psu would know. I don’t even want to get into this because there are people who live to argue definitions and classifications and I hate that. There are disagreements about exactly what a modoki is. Some classify them as any Nino that originated from the central pac then sometimes propagates east. Others by any event where the warmer waters are centered in the central pac. For our purposes even a basin wide is ok so long as it’s moderate not a super Nino. But we definitely want the warmest anomalies to be in the central pac. There doesn’t seem to be much pattern of regularity. I think there were modoki or modoki like episodes in 1964, 1966, 1970, 1978, 1980, 1987, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2015. 3 weren’t great. 1980 was a nightmare where every big storm (there were 3) hit the southern mid Atlantic and north of DC was just cold and dry. 2005 was weak and didn’t couple well and we got kinda unlucky on several storms. But it was a good winter just not great. 1995 sticks out as the WTF went wrong in that group. 1980 and 2005 at least bore characteristics of a modoki Nino and we just got unlucky. 95 was just an anomaly like 1996 was in the other way. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 22 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: My feeling is changes galore regarding day 6-10 are coming. 10 days from now we might be saying damn that was fun. Lots of potential. Hope nothing shows up on a model outside of 48 hours. The potential can be seen on various op runs, but on most runs it's a miss. Given that, it makes sense we consistently see late/offshore on the ens mean, with a few members each run resembling the op when there is a hit. The progressive flow, amplifying LW pattern, and issues with resolving the subtle interactions between all the moving parts make it unlikely that we will see a consistent signal on the ops or ensembles outside of 4-5 days. Maybe by Thursday we will have a better idea. For now, we just can't know- although some probably think they do lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t even want to get into this because there are people who live to argue definitions and classifications and I hate that. There are disagreements about exactly what a modoki is. Some classify them as any Nino that originated from the central pac then sometimes propagates east. Others by any event where the warmer waters are centered in the central pac. For our purposes even a basin wide is ok so long as it’s moderate not a super Nino. But we definitely want the warmest anomalies to be in the central pac. There doesn’t seem to be much pattern of regularity. I think there were modoki or modoki like episodes in 1964, 1966, 1970, 1978, 1980, 1987, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2015. 3 weren’t great. 1980 was a nightmare where every big storm (there were 3) hit the southern mid Atlantic and north of DC was just cold and dry. 2005 was weak and didn’t couple well and we got kinda unlucky on several storms. But it was a good winter just not great. 1995 sticks out as the WTF went wrong in that group. 1980 and 2005 at least bore characteristics of a modoki Nino and we just got unlucky. 95 was just an anomaly like 1996 was in the other way. 94-95 had a KU. It wasn’t a total dud. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Just now, Deck Pic said: 94-95 had a KU. It wasn’t a total dud. A KU for who though? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: A KU for who though? Lol It was a moderate storm for most of this region. Better for the interior northeast. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 36 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: A KU for who though? Lol not for us unless you think 8 inches is a KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 hour ago, CAPE said: The potential can be seen on various op runs, but on most runs it's a miss. Given that, it makes sense we consistently see late/offshore on the ens mean, with a few members each run resembling the op when there is a hit. The progressive flow, amplifying LW pattern, and issues with resolving the subtle interactions between all the moving parts make it unlikely that we will see a consistent signal on the ops or ensembles outside of 4-5 days. Maybe by Thursday we will have a better idea. For now, we just can't know- although some probably think they do lol. even though the Euro is a miss at 12z..your EPS seems to have a few more L's showing up than the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 46 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: 94-95 had a KU. It wasn’t a total dud. True but it was the dud of the modoki Nino cohort 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Our hoped for Valentine's Day storm is showing up (in the 10-day median) well south of Cape Cod - work to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 31 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: Our hoped for Valentine's Day storm is showing up (in the 10-day median) well south of Cape Cod - work to do Did you mean well north? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 3 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I don’t even want to get into this because there are people who live to argue definitions and classifications and I hate that. There are disagreements about exactly what a modoki is. Some classify them as any Nino that originated from the central pac then sometimes propagates east. Others by any event where the warmer waters are centered in the central pac. For our purposes even a basin wide is ok so long as it’s moderate not a super Nino. But we definitely want the warmest anomalies to be in the central pac. There doesn’t seem to be much pattern of regularity. I think there were modoki or modoki like episodes in 1964, 1966, 1970, 1978, 1980, 1987, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2010 and 2015. 3 weren’t great. 1980 was a nightmare where every big storm (there were 3) hit the southern mid Atlantic and north of DC was just cold and dry. 2005 was weak and didn’t couple well and we got kinda unlucky on several storms. But it was a good winter just not great. 1995 sticks out as the WTF went wrong in that group. 1980 and 2005 at least bore characteristics of a modoki Nino and we just got unlucky. 95 was just an anomaly like 1996 was in the other way. This is how I define Modoki. Anyone who disagrees should be put in an insane asylum. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Based on the lack of posting.. obviously the 18z GFS was nothing good for snow lovers. It was horrible.. but also it looked really messy and chaotic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Based on the lack of posting.. obviously the 18z GFS was nothing good for snow lovers. It was horrible.. but also it looked really messy and chaotic. I'm already ignoring the V-Day threat...lol Not saying something happens on PD weekend but it does look stromyish way out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: Based on the lack of posting.. obviously the 18z GFS was nothing good for snow lovers. It was horrible.. but also it looked really messy and chaotic. Strange strange run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 18z GEFS improved for this coming weekend both at h5 and a considerable bump west in precip. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 That 922 bomb heading towards Iceland at day 10 is something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 WB 12Z EPS. About 10 acceptable hits in the two week period….hope for another day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 2 hours ago, Ji said: even though the Euro is a miss at 12z..your EPS seems to have a few more L's showing up than the 0z lol my EPS. Well there are 50 members that are all perturbed slightly differently than the op, but still only 2 of those L positions are good for you. The takeaway is late/offshore, supporting the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Still pretty meager, but a good bit better than 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now