Ji Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 10:37 AM, CAPE said: Expand where are the rest of the 45 L's lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 2:07 PM, Ji said: where are the rest of the 45 L's lol Expand The ensembles have not been too enthused. But hey we can just ignore that! Op runs will lead the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 6:42 AM, Deck Pic said: Expand I will not allow it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 2:10 PM, CAPE said: The ensembles have not been too enthused. But hey we can just ignore that! Op runs will lead the way. Expand Yes of the 51 EURO ensemble members only one gives more snow than the operational; 46 give less than an inch at DCA the ensembles like the 18th a bit more but that is way out in fantasy land Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 H5 improved for Sunday on GFS, but not much better at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 4:21 PM, WxUSAF said: H5 improved for Sunday on GFS, but not much better at the surface. Expand Far sharper trough but never goes negative, remains positive tilt the whole time, plenty of time for changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 4:21 PM, WxUSAF said: H5 improved for Sunday on GFS, but not much better at the surface. Expand It’s a decent setup on the southern part…but damnit with the NS SWs flying across every 36 hours it’s hard to time anything up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 5:18 PM, psuhoffman said: with the NS SWs flying across every 36 hours it’s hard to time anything up. Expand That's been the running theme this season, lol But I'm guessing that's normal in a nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 So we have potentials on the table for the 14th and 18th. Looks like the latter will likely have a better setup in place but both bear watching. Not a terrible spot to be as far as the euro is concerned for the Valentine’s Day threat. Definitely sucks to keep having to rely on the +PNA to be just right (position and strength) and hoping for an early negative trough tilt. Those timing systems typically end up getting together too late for our latitude (a la the blizzard a few weeks ago) but hey, maybe we get lucky with one or two of these. I’d certainly take a 3-6/4-8” type event out of a pattern like this. As PSU said, we need some luck, which we haven’t had much of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 5:42 PM, Maestrobjwa said: That's been the running theme this season, lol But I'm guessing that's normal in a nina? Expand Far too much progressive west to east action with an active NS is definitely niña’esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 2:38 PM, dallen7908 said: Yes of the 51 EURO ensemble members only one gives more snow than the operational; 46 give less than an inch at DCA the ensembles like the 18th a bit more but that is way out in fantasy land Expand Now this I will allow. This 13/14th business. 14th would be better...I'd seriously fly back a day earlier if it's a foot or more. Don't think i have much to worry about. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 UK Met at 144 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 F*ck 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 6:17 PM, stormtracker said: F*ck Expand You are fine, when has the Ukie not laid a dukie for a forecast post 100 hours 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Nevermind, nothing comes of it. Just saw the precip maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 6:15 PM, midatlanticweather said: UK Met at 144 Expand this is the energy i need to motivate me to get new tires on my jeep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 6:18 PM, stormtracker said: Nevermind, nothing comes of it. Just saw the precip maps. Expand You get Ukie post-144 hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 6:20 PM, WxUSAF said: You get Ukie post-144 hr? Expand Indeed I do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 6:21 PM, stormtracker said: Indeed I do Expand Ukie is great at global H5 anomalies and consistently shitty at east coast sensible weather prediction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Just reiterating what we already know: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Euro is a no-go late phase and huge to the right! Even upstream looks like it is a bad setup for anything to truly pop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 4:21 PM, WxUSAF said: H5 improved for Sunday on GFS, but not much better at the surface. Expand it never is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 6:31 PM, midatlanticweather said: Just reiterating what we already know: Expand i dont think there is high uncertainty. I think there is pretty much certainty with this system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 6:18 PM, stormtracker said: Nevermind, nothing comes of it. Just saw the precip maps. Expand how did the ukie fail to produce something from that setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Are we failing good again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 6:43 PM, Ji said: how did the ukie fail to produce something from that setup? Expand Good question, I was scared when I saw the H5 map. Then saw the surface and was like...whew. Euro looks like shit too. We are going to get something before the end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 6:44 PM, stormtracker said: Good question, I was scared when I saw the H5 map. Then saw the surface and was like...whew. Euro looks like shit too. We are going to get something before the end of Feb. Expand looks like maybe the northern stream squashed the southern stream. Dosent matter...ukmet may be the worst model ive ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 6:44 PM, stormtracker said: Good question, I was scared when I saw the H5 map. Then saw the surface and was like...whew. Euro looks like shit too. We are going to get something before the end of Feb. Expand Just worried it will be warm and rainy! Time is running out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 6:45 PM, Ji said: looks like maybe the northern stream squashed the southern stream. Dosent matter...ukmet may be the worst model ive ever seen Expand Well, next to Deep Thunder.... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 2/7/2022 at 6:43 PM, Ji said: how did the ukie fail to produce something from that setup? Expand Destructive interference in the NS. Same with the Euro. The 0z run showed the way, but good luck getting that timing in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now