February Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO…week for improvement….

[cbmclean]

26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

We actually had a -AO/-NAO for a good part of last winter, if I'm not mistaken. Just not enough cold air (and the tpv splitting into an unfortunate position).

You are not mistaken.  We also had -NAO for a good part of this past December.  Unfortunately in both cases it was largely rendered moot by Pac Puke.  

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

 

Well, I've never seen either of you make an optimistic post about anything really. It's all doom and gloom. Or at least some sort of pessimistic connotation. I'm sure there are inspirational nuggets randomly hidden in the mix but you can't hide from a post history. When 90% are negative and pessimistic about everything, I'll call a spade a spade. Some people are glass half full and some are half empty. Me personally, I'm a 3/4 full kind of person about everything I do. Perception is reality. We all choose our own 

So, basically everyone needs to take a Chill pill, right?.

[Ji]

WB 12Z EURO…week for improvement….

It has a better chance of getting worse than improving

[Snowmadness]

52 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

You are not mistaken.  We also had -NAO for a good part of this past December.  Unfortunately in both cases it was largely rendered moot by Pac Puke.  

I agree with the PAC puke but we had a marginal negative NAO for maybe 3 decent days this December then for a day or so later in December.  was not prolonged or sustained to help us much. 

 

[Cobalt]

3 minutes ago, Snowmadness said:

I agree with the PAC puke but we had a marginal negative NAO for maybe 3 decent days this December then for a day or so later in December.  was not prolonged or sustained to help us much. 

 

And even then.. it lined up with a pretty significant snow event for the central/southern parts of our subforum. The Jan 3rd event was -AO/-NAO, and all it took was the PAC puke to relax a bit for that event to be possible. 

[snowmagnet]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO…week for improvement….

It has a better chance of getting worse than improving

Where is the panic room when we need it for those of you who have empty glasses? 
 

There is plenty of time for positive trends this week. 

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

And even then.. it lined up with a pretty significant snow event for the central/southern parts of our subforum. The Jan 3rd event was -AO/-NAO, and all it took was the PAC puke to relax a bit for that event to be possible. 

The Pacific has been largely favorable the past month though, with a mechanism for delivery of legit cold into our source region. Not really comparable to the 'pacific puke'  problem we had much of last winter, where the AO/NAO was favorable for extended periods but did little good because there was no cold to work with.

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, Snowmadness said:

I agree with the PAC puke but we had a marginal negative NAO for maybe 3 decent days this December then for a day or so later in December.  was not prolonged or sustained to help us much. 

 

The NAO has been mostly around neutral, so it hasn't been a detriment. Having transient ridging in the NAO domain often doesn't do much to help us though with storm development and track. Imo it has had little to no influence with the storms that worked out(for eastern areas) this winter. That was mostly about timing and luck. When we talk about a -NAO, it is usually in the context of persistent blocking that also involves a quasi stationary low adjacent to it, which sustains the blocked flow. That gives us a more favorable storm track(further south) and slows the progression of developing storms. It somewhat inhibits inland tracks but also allows earlier development to our SW (rather than right at or off the coast as we have seen so often this winter), and aids in keeping the cold air in place during the storm- HP to our N/NW cant fly off the coast and exit stage right.

[Heisy]

2 hours ago, Snowmadness said:

 

 

(Speaking from Richmond) For last two winters,  the NAO has never gone negative for more then a day or two the  entire winter. It is frequently negative rest of the months but  for some reason,  from early December  to Mid March it is always strongly positive for slightly above neutral.  Zero Blocking.  This winter is especially bad.  Guessing La Nina has  a lot to do with it.  I really don’t understand the science behind what drives the patterns other then how the indexes show favorable or unfavorable patterns.  Now,  the only  favorable index this winter, the PNA is forecasted  to go negative and MJO entering warmer phases. Maybe  we may get lucky mid March if pattern can flip back, -NAO blocking and MJO can cycle back around to 8-1.  Until then, it  seems we  need  absolute perfection and timing of cold fronts and  low positions  to give us a good winter storm.   Super low odds with all the vortexes flying around.  I think we have had like 6 inches (RVA)  total between all the storms.  North, South,  East and West of us have a foot plus. Sorry to rant. Just  a frustrating winter for us.  If this happens again next winter, I will seriously storm chase the next big snow even if I have to fly to Maine or Canada….lol …Sorry to rant.  

 

Yep, it's why I started chasing storms many years ago. I go to at least one per year. Less stress worrying about storms hitting my backyard. I was just near Boston for last weekends event, was pretty epic. Then again others think I'm crazy. I don't really blame them lol..

[WinterWxLuvr]

I’m gonna try to undo the curse of this thread and the incomprehensible decision to shut down a thread that was at least producing threats. I have summoned an exorcist to try and restore the mojo while we have time.

Deliver us from misery old cold one.

Hope this works. If not, we may need a human sacrifice. I have a list for that too. 

 

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The Pacific has been largely favorable the past month though, with a mechanism for delivery of legit cold into our source region. Not really comparable to the 'pacific puke'  problem we had much of last winter, where the AO/NAO was favorable for extended periods but did little good because there was no cold to work with.

For me, that is one of the big positives from this year.  Assuming the pattern does break down after Valentines that would be a solid 5 - 6 weeks of "workable to good" Pacific, which feels like it might be more than the "workable to good" time than the previous five winters put together.  

On the negative side, it seems like the "trend" of the complete inability to have the Atlantic and Pacific to play nicely together for any extended time is continuing.  I'm not talking about having both sides be really good at the same time; that's rarer than finding a unicorn with a four leaf clover growing out of its butt.  I'm just talking about one side being good while the other is at least workable.  The present day default state is that if one side is good the other side is a raging dumpster fire and if the raging dumpster fire by chance goes out, it immediately pops up on the other side.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

I'm not talking about having both sides be really good at the same time; that's rarer than finding a unicorn with a four leaf clover growing out of its butt.

HA...well that was a doosey of a euphemism, lol Hadn't heard that one!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

  I'm not talking about having both sides be really good at the same time; that's rarer than finding a unicorn with a four leaf clover growing out of its butt. 

Now that is quite the mixed metaphor there! But now that you mentioned it... 

[psuhoffman]

5 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Is it lack of optimism or just what climo dictates? Honestly I am surprised we've even stayed in an okay pattern this long. No SE ridge or torch most of January? Like how rare is that?

The skepticism isn’t wrong. It doesn’t snow much here without blocking. But it’s annoying when the woe is me crowd takes over and the thread gets flooded with whining over what’s normal (not snow).  It’s been a pretty typical winter. Some snow. Some cold. But not enough to make most happy. And that describes 80% of our winters. How many in the last 20 years truly satisfied the majority of people here?  2003, 2010, 2014, 2015…that’s it really.

I was happy with 2006 but I remember people whining that it was really only one storm and it melted so fast.  Same with 2016. So other than 4 of the last 20 years people some were complaining. Maybe they need to evaluate their expectations!  
 

Im not blind to the low odds of snow but my game in winter is to hunt for the next possible threat, whether it’s 3 days or 15 days away. And whether it’s in December or March. I’m hunting for that chance of a snowstorm and analyzing the pattern to identify our chances knowing full well it’s a long shot and most threats are bound to fail. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Snowmadness said:

I agree with the PAC puke but we had a marginal negative NAO for maybe 3 decent days this December then for a day or so later in December.  was not prolonged or sustained to help us much. 

 

That index isn’t always the best way to judge. It’s based on surface pressures between Iceland and the Azores. That’s not really even what we look for. A Greenland block or even Baffin block is better yet sometimes won’t show on that index if there is a trough in the eastern NAO domain. We had a beautiful retrograding block from Dec 18-30. But the pac was historically bad. There was a ton of blocking last winter also. 

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GEFS looks better than 12Z.  Not giving up on the day 7/8 threat yet.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The skepticism isn’t wrong. It doesn’t snow much here without blocking. But it’s annoying when the woe is me crowd takes over and the thread gets flooded with whining over what’s normal (not snow).  It’s been a pretty typical winter. Some snow. Some cold. But not enough to make most happy. And that describes 80% of our winters. How many in the last 20 years truly satisfied the majority of people here?  2003, 2010, 2014, 2015…that’s it really.

I was happy with 2006 but I remember people whining that it was really only one storm and it melted so fast.  Same with 2016. So other than 4 of the last 20 years people some were complaining. Maybe they need to evaluate their expectations!  
 

Im not blind to the low odds of snow but my game in winter is to hunt for the next possible threat, whether it’s 3 days or 15 days away. And whether it’s in December or March. I’m hunting for that chance of a snowstorm and analyzing the pattern to identify our chances knowing full well it’s a long shot and most threats are bound to fail. 

Any ideas on when those next threats might be? Besides Valentines day

[Ji]

Any ideas on when those next threats might be? Besides Valentines day

No he has no idea

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

2 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Any ideas on when those next threats might be? Besides Valentines day

No he has no idea

No he does not…this is true

[StormchaserChuck!]

medium range storm threat looks like the end of a La Nina Winter.. looks the same as 16-17, 17-18, 18-19, 19-20.. 20-21

[Solution Man]

12 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

medium range storm threat looks like the end of a La Nina Winter.. looks the same as 16-17, 17-18, 18-19, 19-20.. 20-21

We gotta get you a storm to chase there….Chuck

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Any ideas on when those next threats might be? Besides Valentines day

 

49 minutes ago, Ji said:

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Any ideas on when those next threats might be? Besides Valentines day

No he has no idea

The pattern is what it is.  Absent blocking we need luck. We’ve had 2 major amplifications. One cut west the other was east. We had 3 boundary waves. One went north,  one south, and we got one region wide 3-6” storm from one. (I’m not counting Jan 3, that was really during a transition from the -NAO -pna pattern). 
 

So in the first 4 weeks of this pattern we had 5 legit threats and 1 decent hit and 2 minor fringe events.   A little frustrating but not a total disaster.  Do we get more luck before this ends…I have no clue. But just like the others we wont know the details of any threats until they’re within 5-6 days. Stuff at 140+ hours will come and go and change a lot. Some keep saying stuff will pop up within 72 hours but I don’t really agree. I think guidance is better than in 2014. These waves have been modeled very well once inside 100-120 hours.  But outside 120-140 things have gone through major synoptic shifts. I suspect we don’t go 2 weeks (the pattern looks to last at least that long)  without some threat materializing but nothing is within range yet. But we will be at the mercy of the same factors. If it’s a boundary wave we need a weaker wave. If it’s a major amplification/phase we need perfect timing. 

[jaydreb]

PDIII?

[Deck Pic]

Super Bowl storm

[Deck Pic]

[Cobalt]

2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Super Bowl storm

Trough goes negative a bit too late for us but still a pretty decent hit. Pretty interesting h5 setup

[Deck Pic]

6 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Trough goes negative a bit too late for us but still a pretty decent hit. Pretty interesting h5 setup

There isn't much margin for error with the cold air and precip basically arriving at the same time.  It's an amusing scenario.  60 degrees Saturday evening and Sunday at noon, 20 and ripping snow.  Model life.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Extreme pattern here

This is starting to show up the last 2 runs, -PNA-centered which we haven't had since December.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GEFS,  significant uptick…