SnowenOutThere Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 9:19 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Mentioned in the PHL group but how odd is it that all 3 major global ops have the V-Day storm in one form or another and are really close to something big-ticket Expand #TheBigOnesAreSniffedOutEarly 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Let's see if the GFS serves up one of it's patented Saturday Happy Hour specials we've seen this winter, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 9:10 PM, psuhoffman said: My perfect storm. Gives us 10-20” then obliterates the ski resort I’m going to right after it with 40”. ETA: my 10 hour drive to sugarloaf would have 20”+ otg the whole way lol. Expand I’m a SE poster but will be going to Snowshoe next Friday-Weds …. So I will be lurking up here With y’all all week let’s bring it home! I’ve had 6” This year, and 12” two times in my life …. I’m 30, So obviously this would be the coolest weather related thing to me. Anyway, carry on lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 10:08 PM, PantherJustin said: I’m a SE poster but will be going to Snowshoe next Friday-Weds …. So I will be lurking up here With y’all all week let’s bring it home! I’ve had 6” This year, and 12” two times in my life …. I’m 30, So obviously this would be the coolest weather related thing to me. Anyway, carry on lmao Expand Have fun at the Shoe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Incoming hr 207 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Hope it looks like that next week this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Boom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 I like what the gfs is selling 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Looks like it starts wrapping up, then kind of loses it and goes back positive after a brief negative. I mean.. something is there across models now! Something to watch again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Wait, the euro and GFs both have a storm!? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 10:37 PM, LeesburgWx said: Wait, the euro and GFs both have a storm!? Expand Canadian as well. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 10:38 PM, midatlanticweather said: Canadian as well. Expand End of season throw down….I will go away happy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 10:38 PM, midatlanticweather said: Canadian as well. Expand Yet the eps, gefs, and geps have hardly a reflection at the surface during the same time. Don't ever recall all 3 ops honking at this range out with basically little to no ens support at all. Mind blown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 11:44 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Yet the eps, gefs, and geps have hardly a reflection at the surface during the same time. Don't ever recall all 3 ops honking at this range out with basically little to no ens support at all. Mind blown. Expand This range? As in D10? Isn't that kinda par for the course this far out? Lol (It's almost fantasy range, really) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Should we start a thread? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 10:36 PM, SnowenOutThere said: I like what the gfs is selling Expand Tuuuuuuuuucked 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Anybody got supper Euro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 On 2/6/2022 at 12:42 AM, Solution Man said: Anybody got supper Euro? Expand Only goes out to 90hrs and ensembles only go out to 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 On 2/6/2022 at 12:49 AM, Amped said: Only goes out to 90hrs and ensembles only go out to 144 Expand Forgot, too much wine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 10:08 PM, PantherJustin said: I’m a SE poster but will be going to Snowshoe next Friday-Weds …. So I will be lurking up here With y’all all week let’s bring it home! I’ve had 6” This year, and 12” two times in my life …. I’m 30, So obviously this would be the coolest weather related thing to me. Anyway, carry on lmao Expand I’ll be at snowshoe with my kids next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 11:44 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Yet the eps, gefs, and geps have hardly a reflection at the surface during the same time. Don't ever recall all 3 ops honking at this range out with basically little to no ens support at all. Mind blown. Expand The advertised pattern is highly chaotic with energy riding over an amplifying western US ridge and interacting with additional energy associated with the TPV, then there is also energy undercutting the western ridge and taking the southern route. The op runs are (frequently) phasing energy dropping down from the NS with existing energy further south, while the ensemble runs largely have less interaction or suggest a much later phase. The difference in resolution probably plays a big part in the disparate projected outcomes, especially at this range. In simple terms, we just cant know yet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 10:36 PM, midatlanticweather said: Looks like it starts wrapping up, then kind of loses it and goes back positive after a brief negative. I mean.. something is there across models now! Something to watch again! Expand Looks like the bottom energy goes neutral tilt while the second piece of energy dives in behind it at a positive tilt and then phases with the first thing turning the whole system positive tilt. I think that’s what happens at least if anyone smarter than me wants to correct me please do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 On 2/6/2022 at 12:50 AM, psuhoffman said: I’ll be at snowshoe with my kids next weekend. Expand Leaving for 7 Springs tomorrow and snow mobile trails open 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 On 2/6/2022 at 12:57 AM, CAPE said: The advertised pattern is highly chaotic with energy riding over an amplifying western US ridge and interacting with additional energy associated with the TPV, then there is also energy undercutting the western ridge and taking the southern route. The op runs are (frequently) phasing energy dropping down from the NS with existing energy further south, while the ensemble runs largely have less interaction or suggest a much later phase. The difference in resolution probably plays a big part in the disparate projected outcomes, especially at this range. In simple terms, we just cant know yet. Expand I'll use the 18z GFS vs 18z GEFS to illustrate- Phase underway here.. Not happening on the ens mean.. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Ensembles have been garbage this year anyway. This might be the first time all winter we've had every major OP model have a winter storm at this range. What could go wrong?! Ha. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 Not really any chance for anything for a while here. This is really bad. +NAO/+EPO moving in tomorrow overperforms, then we flirt with 60s down the road it looks like. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 No chance of snow until March 1 probably.. 2SD +NAO here 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 On 2/6/2022 at 1:27 AM, Heisy said: Ensembles have been garbage this year anyway. This might be the first time all winter we've had every major OP model have a winter storm at this range. What could go wrong?! Ha. Expand Be careful. They play an important role in NWP. At this juncture they are indicating that you may be disappointed if you expect the depiction on the latest op runs to be the correct outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 On 2/6/2022 at 1:40 AM, StormchaserChuck! said: Not really any chance for anything for a while here. This is really bad. +NAO/+EPO moving in tomorrow overperforms, then we flirt with 60s down the road it looks like. Expand You cancelled cold temps on 1/3. Look what followed. 4 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2022 Share Posted February 6, 2022 On 2/6/2022 at 1:50 AM, CAPE said: Be careful. They play an important role in NWP. At this juncture they are indicating that you may be disappointed if you expect the depiction on the latest op runs to be the correct outcome. Expand And given what we saw last month, nobody should take a Day 10 depiction verbatim. You mentioned the chaos with all the waves...that's also been a running theme. Seems like what ya get out of that more often is sloppy or late phasing (and how many times did we yell at this wave or that wave to stop interfering? Lol). When doubt, go with the season's trend until it does something different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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