Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 4:07 AM, psuhoffman said: If you're talking exclusively about 20"+ HECS storms, then yes the window for those closes around Feb 15th on the coastal plain. But those are extremely rare, like 1-2 per decade rare anyways. The odds we were going to get one of those in a nina was VERY VERY low anyways. But if we are just talking about a snowstorm, even a really significant 10" storm, the odds go down after Feb 15 but its not a cliff its a slow gradual decline until you get to late march where the door finally closes. The metro areas have had plenty of significant snowfalls in late Feb and March. Just off the top of my head there was a 8-12" late Feb storm in 1966. A 10-15" storm in late Feb 1987. I can't remember exactly what years but I know there were big storms (like 10"+) in both the late 1920s and late 1940's in late Feb. March 93, there was a pretty big storm in DC in March 99, A 6-12" storm in March 2009, a very big storm, I think 10-15" across the area in March 1960. I know there was a 8-10" march storm in 1976 and a big storm in March 62. I think there was a big march snowstorm in the 1940's also. Those are just BIG MECS 10" plus storms...there were countless 5-8" type snowstorms in late Feb and early March. The list isnt that much shorter than a similar list for early Feb or some random period in January even. Yes it lacks 20" plus HECS storms...but you made it sound like snow suddenly becomes harder after Feb 15th. Expand This is very true. While Pres. Day might be about the time limit for a big HECS event, there have been several solid moderate events in late Feb through mid-March or so. More recently off the top of my head (and giving the amount I recorded at my location)... Feb 27-28, 2003...~5" Feb 25, 2007...5-6" March 3, 2009...6" March 25, 2013...4" March 2-3, 2014...5-6" March 17, 2014...8" March 25, 2014...3" Feb 20, 2015...6" (unusual cold at the start, later turned to sleet and drizzle) March 5, 2015...6-7" March 20, 2018...~5" May have missed some but those are the ones I most recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 00Z CMC h5 much improved vs 12z… actually quite the shift. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Nothing is translating to the surface. We are running out of time this winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 4:53 AM, Ji said: Nothing is translating to the surface. We are running out of time this winter Expand On 2/5/2022 at 3:58 AM, stormtracker said: Gets. precip right along dc se border. before it heads out to sea Not sure if 18z did Expand Still looks like positively tilted bag of d Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 WB 0Z GEFS and CMC says watch 10-15 day period. Hopefully something to track by the end of this upcoming work week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Powerful +NAO here.. Im interested in seeing where we go after this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 -PNA crreeps upward next Winter same stuff -NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Hopefully OC can score again before the last blizzard melts ^ lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 11:23 AM, dailylurker said: Hopefully OC can score again before the last blizzard melts ^ lol Expand Nothing else to track in the near term. Pretty low probability this becomes anything significant, but still some uncertainty as the ens means have generally been further west of recent op runs. Best case scenario is probably a coating to an inch in places if precip can fall for a few hours with some intensity, and overcome the warmish low levels. It would occur mostly overnight, which gives it a better chance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 That northern stream energy dropping down has been digging further west on recent runs, helping to turn the flow a bit more NE out in front. The coastal low develops out in front of the elongated ribbon of vorticity, underneath a developing strong upper jet. The ultimate phase is going to happen too late, but trends suggest a glancing blow is possible. Light precip probably won't get it done. Need some rates to overcome the marginal low level temps. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Happy National Weatherman Day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 The NAM's want nothing to do with the Tuesday thing. Not really in their wheelhouse anyways. If they even have one. But the precip is just so light that we would have no chance anyways with the temps being advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 2:52 PM, clskinsfan said: The NAM's want nothing to do with the Tuesday thing. Not really in their wheelhouse anyways. If they even have one. But the precip is just so light that we would have no chance anyways with the temps being advertised. Expand The only thing that model does right is run on time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 RGEM is a little more interesting. Better organized and gets some snow close to DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stradivarious Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 3:39 AM, Always in Zugzwang said: The Wurst of PDQ Bach! @Maestrobjwamight appreciate the reference! Expand One of my Teachers went to school with Peter at Juilliard, said no one had an inkling as to what he would become… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 3:13 PM, clskinsfan said: RGEM is a little more interesting. Better organized and gets some snow close to DC. Expand Surface temps are like upper 30s? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 Again; if you have both a temp and precip issue; unlikely. fwiw DT said we have a window around v day. After that probably SE ridge stuffs. Bad nao, pna, ao etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 3:14 PM, Stradivarious said: One of my Teachers went to school with Peter at Juilliard, said no one had an inkling as to what he would become… Expand Hahaha Delayed music crazy...love it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawk Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 DT a week ago said February would be cold all the way through. That guy is a pure model hugger. Teleconnections are just forecasts too. How did that -NAO forecast all work out DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 WB 12Z GFS next window of opportunity, verbatim a rain storm off the coast but we have a week to watch it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 4:28 PM, losetoa6 said: That western ridge at hour 180 on the Gfs is pretty nuts . Expand Almost textbook +PNA with EPO ridging up top. Definitely a window next weekend with those looks and stj energy moving thru. Maybe the trough can sharpen this go 'round instead of being just a broad trough as has been the case with some recent storms. ^^slightest ridge over Greenland, looks to be waning tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 4:51 PM, losetoa6 said: After the Tuesday offshore storm gets out of the wave I think we could be tracking the follow up energy for a clipper or possible light event a couple days later. Fast flow stuff pops up inside 96 to 72 hours Expand The op is cold and stormy moving thru mid month...borderline weenie run with chances. Awaiting the GEFS fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 2:52 PM, clskinsfan said: The NAM's want nothing to do with the Tuesday thing. Not really in their wheelhouse anyways. If they even have one. But the precip is just so light that we would have no chance anyways with the temps being advertised. Expand 12z GFS/GEFS is further east than 6z. Probably just some light rain/snow showers as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 4:54 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: The op is cold and stormy moving thru mid month...borderline weenie run with chances. Awaiting the GEFS fwiw. Expand Weenie run? Lol. It does show possibilities. Also shows the same issue we've had with systems developing to far offshore. Let's hope we can time something up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stradivarious Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 4:28 PM, Hawk said: DT a week ago said February would be cold all the way through. That guy is a pure model hugger. Teleconnections are just forecasts too. How did that -NAO forecast all work out DT? Expand In fairness, he said it (that hard core winter cold being over for the winter after the potential event Feb 14, 15) was not his forecast, but it was what the models were showing, and he tended to agree with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 5:13 PM, Chris78 said: Weenie run? Lol. It does show possibilities. Also shows the same issue we've had with systems developing to far offshore. Let's hope we can time something up. Expand ^^^There it is 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 CMC is ready to dump d9 d10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 On 2/5/2022 at 5:27 PM, Ji said: CMC is ready to dump d9 d10 Expand Hope it doesn’t take its patent dump on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 5, 2022 Share Posted February 5, 2022 WB 12Z GEFS….still gives hope that there will be something to track by the end of the week… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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