Baltimorewx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 So once again, the eastern shore somehow has a better shot to change to a period of snow (albeit brief) than the Central MD area OCMD is a snow town 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 12Z GFS holding firm on the cold push and ice amounts for the northern tier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 WB 12Z GFS today v. yesterday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS today v. yesterday The ice threat is slip-sliding away..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 its not gone but its good to see it shift more norther. A little more and maybe our friends along the M/D line won't be affected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: So once again, the eastern shore somehow has a better shot to change to a period of snow (albeit brief) than the Central MD area OCMD is a snow town Only other model I have seen hint at that is the CMC, and if it did happen it would be wholly insignificant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Only other model I have seen hint at that is the CMC, and if it did happen it would be wholly insignificant. Certainly, its just funny that the shore seems to keep getting better odds of snow. Even the "event" a couple weeks ago where we thought an arctic front would change things over to a couple inches of snow for DC/Balt turned out to be the eastern shore with it happening to a greater extent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Fine by me. Don't care about flash freeze or whatever. I'd rather walk like a penguin to get the mail then spend a thousand bucks (or more!) in diesel keeping the power on not to mention the tremendous effort cleaning up the forest! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 28 minutes ago, mappy said: 12Z GFS holding firm on the cold push and ice amounts for the northern tier. Yeah, this one is going to be a real test of the GFS insistence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 How's it looking, gang? I stocked up on candles and lambrusco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, this one is going to be a real test of the GFS insistence. Its King now right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Last minute north pull - Thank goodness we were tracking ice and not snow. Seems like minimal impacts for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 WWA cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The Canadien Herpes model actually bumped up ice totals slightly along the M/D border and still advertising over 0.3” here. Trend clearly is pulling back on the ice and we’ll see how it all shakes out but LWX has been really consistent with suggesting minor impacts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 70,000 without power in Western Tennessee thus far. Let's be glad for the big nothing burger. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: 70,000 without power in Western Tennessee thus far. Let's be glad for the big nothing burger. Right, it's no fun dealing with 115kV over 13kV lines coming down together in farmland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, Stormfly said: WWA cancel? Nope. Also, from LWX 1030am discussion A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for counties bordering PA (with the exception of Cecil, southern Baltimore, and southern Harford), as well as the eastern WV Panhandle. Locations within the Winter Weather Advisory will see a glaze to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain in most spots, with a few isolated higher totals possible in Garrett County and north- central MD. For the time being, plain rain is expected elsewhere. We`ll continue to evaluate new model guidance and trends throughout the day, and adjust headlines accordingly. Some sleet may also mix in within the Winter Weather Advisory zone. It can`t be ruled out, that portions of the DC metro could encounter a brief mix in of snow and sleet into the rain toward the end of the precipitation. Precipitation will wind down from west to east during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Well if we get anything hopefully it's enough (glaze) to make the lane slippery enough so my border collie runs in place like a big treadmill! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 hours ago, CAPE said: Whatever heater its been on (real or imagined) it didn't do very well here and was not good for the last storm. You know this stuff backwards and forwards but Ive been seeing a trend towards putting a single piece of guidance too far above everything else just because. I don't like it at all. It kills good discussion. Using recent past performance of ops to definitively judge future performance is almost always a mistake. This game has never worked that way except when the euro dominated the mid range accuracy. Those days are long over. All ops are good and bad at different things. Since the atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex, it's impossible to know exactly what causes an op to stand out on a specific setup. It is always best to use all available guidance then use your brain to finish the job. Model hugging is an exercise in getting egg on your face. Don't believe me? Just ask DT. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You know this stuff backwards and forwards but Ive been seeing a trend towards putting a single piece of guidance too far above everything else just because. I don't like it at all. It kills good discussion. Using recent past performance of ops to definitively judge future performance is almost always a mistake. This game has never worked that way except when the euro dominated the mid range accuracy. Those days are long over. All ops are good and bad at different things. Since the atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex, it's impossible to know exactly what causes an op to stand out on a specific setup. It is always best to use all available guidance then use your brain to finish the job. Model hugging is an exercise in getting egg on your face. Don't believe me? Just ask DT. Completely agree. Grading model performance is not my interest and above my pay grade. I have been low key trolling because of the GFS 'superiority' hyperbole we hear more often lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: My buddy is driving from Philly to Frederick today and plans to drive back home tomorrow (Friday). Im not familiar with topography and micro climes down that way so I couldn't give him a solid answer on his travel conditions. Last I saw were a bunch of ice maps with Frederick in the crosshairs. Has this changed at all? I know up this way we aren't looking at much of anything frozen. Better for him to hold off leaving Frederick until Saturday AM or do you think Friday will be ok? Sorry to bother and clog the thread but I thank you for any advice. I live in Frederick and depends where in Frederick he will be. I am SW of the city and my forecast is showing a low of 33 at noon when the precip ends. We are currently under a Winter Weather Advisory starting at 5 am till 4 pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 42 minutes ago, CAPE said: Completely agree. Grading model performance is not my interest and above my pay grade. I have been low key trolling because of the GFS 'superiority' hyperbole we hear more often lately. Gfs does a really good job sometimes. I really like the recent upgrade for winter wx. One of the common errors is speed of fronts and how south or east they get d2-4. But that's easy to work with. When it's the eastest, move a little westest and you prob nail it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Last time I ever look at this model lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Euro about the same as overnight, a tenth for the northern tier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Temps are already way warmer than the 3K nam had for our area at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Temps are already way warmer than the 3K nam had for our area at this time I see that, too. 12z has 37 at 1pm, its 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Temps running higher here than the 12z Euro by about 3 degrees currently. 12z Euro ice totals. Also has 1” of snow tomorrow night for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 seems like we're just too close to the surface low. the areas getting the ice storm are on the western side...in some case, much further west. surface winds are still out of the south/southeast into western nc/wv and pa. even if temps are in the low 30s...i don't think that'll be enough. far western ky/tn has temps in the 20s right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, mappy said: I see that, too. 12z has 37 at 1pm, its 43 Wow, definitely thought you'd be cooler than that now....radar looks juicier in your neck of the woods right now, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, vastateofmind said: Wow, definitely thought you'd be cooler than that now....radar looks juicier in your neck of the woods right now, too. south winds! I'm okay with it, boo ice 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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