Baltimorewx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: My buddy is driving from Philly to Frederick today and plans to drive back home tomorrow (Friday). Im not familiar with topography and micro climes down that way so I couldn't give him a solid answer on his travel conditions. Last I saw were a bunch of ice maps with Frederick in the crosshairs. Has this changed at all? I know up this way we aren't looking at much of anything frozen. Better for him to hold off leaving Frederick until Saturday AM or do you think Friday will be ok? Sorry to bother and clog the thread but I thank you for any advice. It really depends on what model you want to believe...I personally think its going to be a non event for most. I just dont see the cold push being as strong as some models are making it, so Ill side with the Euro/HRRR..Im assuming he would take I70 to 95....Main highways like that should be fine with this IMO. Though if he does have an issue it would probably be around Mt Airy where the elevation jumps up 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, mappy said: GFS still "thinks" it could be a mess tomorrow for some. Guess we shall see. Enjoy your rain! As long as it's not 35 and rain (or 38 and rain or 42 and rain) I can probably enjoy it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, mattie g said: You wouldn't have guessed it based on some of the posts in here...and the GFS certainly "thought" that up until about this time yesterday. There are people in our area near the M/D line that very much need to be worried about potential ice. Just because 70% of people won't see ice doesn't mean others can't be concerned. Any ice is major. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: As long as it's not 35 and rain (or 38 and rain or 42 and rain) I can probably enjoy it! Hope it works out for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32º Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 54 minutes ago, mappy said: 700-720 depending on where in my yard you're at, yes I've actually surveyed it The 800 ft line goes across my front yard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The tropic of cancer line goes across mine 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 45 air temp. Soil and pavement temp around 73. and waiting for my ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, mappy said: Hope it works out for you. Last word 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, H2O said: There are people in our area near the M/D line that very much need to be worried about potential ice. Just because 70% of people won't see ice doesn't mean others can't be concerned. Any ice is major. Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, mattie g said: Last word sounds good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Not an ice fan but was hoping for a day off for my teacher wife as my 4-year old is going to be home all day tomorrow because they are having parent-teacher conferences and it's never fun trying to work while also fighting to keep him off screens and busy all day. Not looking good for me at the moment. Wish I could trade the rain off day from a couple weeks back for a rain off day tomorrow. At least my car is getting a much-needed cleansing of all the salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Mappyland over to fdk hgr certainly need to be on watch. South of there, let’s go swimming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Meh cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Depending on the temp crash. I would be more concerned with a flash freeze than freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 36 and rain. About as crappy as weather gets. Enjoy the ice for those that actually see some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 It’s fun tracking rain events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, TSSN+ said: It’s fun tracking rain events youre free to leave 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Anyway, 3K NAM backed off the cold push, maybe light icing at the end. Exciting for those who don't want ice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Could y’all chill with the snark and just have a civil discussion? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Could y’all chill with the snark and just have a civil discussion? Impossible around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Impossible around here. You are contributing to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, snowfan said: You are contributing to it. Just responding in kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Just responding in kind. Let's be honest, we didn't even do ice tracking well this time. The GFS led the charge and we thought it had a chance at being vastly different than a lot of guidance, but like they usually do, everything moved towards each other and converged in the middle. It won't be all rain for me or you, but it also most likely won't be .5" of ice either. I thought for a sec we were in trouble when the 12z GFS and then Euro and the 18z NAM had gotten icier, but pretty much everything has trended downwards from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Let's be honest, we didn't even do ice tracking well this time. The GFS led the charge and we thought it had a chance at being vastly different than a lot of guidance, but like they usually do, everything moved towards each other and converged in the middle. It won't be all rain for me or you, but it also most likely won't be .5" of ice either. I thought for a sec we were in trouble when the 12z GFS and then Euro and the 18z NAM had gotten icier, but pretty much everything has trended downwards from there. We were never going to get a half inch of ice. Despite GFS and NAM throwing out stupid amounts of it. I've been a fan of the Euro the whole time, but you know everyone thinks the Euro sucks, so... I don't want ice, and I hope it doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Seems like Euro may have done the best with this one. It had one or two runs where it pushed the ice down past I-70 but for the most part advertised far northern areas as the only spots where ice would be a problem. GFS definitely hyped the cold push too much, which is weird since I don't think it usually does that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, mappy said: Anyway, 3K NAM backed off the cold push, maybe light icing at the end. Exciting for those who don't want ice! 12Z WB 3K NAM. Stick a fork in the ice event! (Good thing!). Now we can hit the reset button and hopefully have something to track for the second half of February by the end of next week. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 With all due respect, I am not sticking a fork in it. But you do you. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Can’t rule out ice until it totally disappears on every run. If this turns out to be a non event then great. But it isn’t there yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 24 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Seems like Euro may have done the best with this one. It had one or two runs where it pushed the ice down past I-70 but for the most part advertised far northern areas as the only spots where ice would be a problem. GFS definitely hyped the cold push too much, which is weird since I don't think it usually does that. Whatever heater its been on (real or imagined) it didn't do very well here and was not good for the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I tihnk LWX has done very good with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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