StormyClearweather Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 It's the HRRR toward the end of its run, but quite warm nonetheless. Precip is mostly gone by this point. Trended warmer since its 18Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 39 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Over an An hour ago . This speaks volumes. When DC isn't likely to get significant impacts it's totally crickets in the thread . Quick peek at 18z Euro. Pretty similar to 12z . Typical noise . 50% of the time, this is right. But in this case, a much simpler explanation...I was at the gym. NAM is a hair slower with the front btw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Nam is a bit warmer so far vs 18z. Freezing line is north of the M/D line. At 18z, it had sunk south to barely south of HGR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 11 degrees slower…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 ok, 0z 36 hour, freezing line is right along the m/d line, except sagging south of mappyland . at 18z it was going west to east on a line just north of Winchester, through central Montgomery county to just north of Bmore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 A bit warmer but northern Maryland and southern pa get iced over good still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Still about 18 hours from NAM reliable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 It's def a warmer run, but front differences are 20 miles between 18z and this run. And with this situation, I know every mile is crucial..so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 WB 0Z 12K NAM v 18Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 WB 3K NAM 0Z v 18Z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3k has Garrett County below freezing by 1a Friday. Northern MD (Manchester/etc) drops below freezing around 6a. 3k actually ends as some snow out here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 WRF ARW is way nw/warmer with the front/temps vs 18z. This could trend all the way gone by gametime if those leary of ice keep rooting it on (until 12z trends colder again) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Warm trend is our friend for those that don’t want ice 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Latest map from LWX 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 This here oughta be the poster for what to expect from ice threats around here 95% of the time...lol This p-type division is textbook climo for what happens, it seems...(I think there are more ways to get snow than ice!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 GFS has the freezing line to me at 10p tomorrow night (3-5 hours quicker than other models). Northern MD areas are below freezing around 5-6a Friday. More realistic ice totals on the GFS and ends as snow out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Latest map from LWX Yo why the edges of that look like somethin' off the original Nintendo? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yo why the edges of that look like somethin' of the original Nintendo? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Ha, spiking the football...see what did there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 43/41, light rain. Looking forward to my ice event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 hours ago, frostbite_falls said: Well played, you Jeb’d the Jeb . Good luck down there Jebman! I hope you all get snowed in so deep this season! First you have to get the rain out of the way, then you get the slider that does go up the coast and that annihilates the sub with ridiculous amounts of wind driven snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 WB 6Z NAM 3K and 12K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 This threat seems to be nearing zero quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This threat seems to be nearing zero quickly Is it? Models still giving me up to a quarter inch up here. Guess when it doesn't impact half the forum, its a zero event. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Is it? Models still giving me up to a quarter inch up here. Guess when it doesn't impact half the forum, its a zero event. Well to be honest I kinda have tunnel vision. Here I think it looks like nothing. And for you I think at least it’s trending less. I know you don’t want it so I think that’s good news, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Is it? Models still giving me up to a quarter inch up here. Guess when it doesn't impact half the forum, its a zero event. I know.. right. I'm over here on Parrs Ridge waiting on PBP on model runs lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Well to be honest I kinda have tunnel vision. Here I think it looks like nothing. And for you I think at least it’s trending less. I know you don’t want it so I think that’s good news, right? Yes, I don't want it, so if it trends less, that'd be great. But its not a zero event here, yet 1 minute ago, dailylurker said: I know.. right. I'm over here on Parrs Ridge waiting on PBP on model runs lol No one cares about us up here lol I did a quick glance at stuff. Long range HRRR still shows 0, but lol 12K NAM is a quarter inch from me, along the MD/PA line out to Hagerstown 3K NAM isn't as high, but about .20 for you and I GFS is above a quarter inch for all of the northern tier, Bel Air west to Hagerstown Euro with the lowest amounts, about a tenth along the MD/PA line 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 At this point you have to hope that the cold air push won’t be as modeled and that it is overdoing the ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 WWA for those of us along the PA line URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 339 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 MDZ004>006-507-040045- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0012.220204T1000Z-220204T2100Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Harford- 339 AM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain. Ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Frederick MD, Carroll, Northern Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties. * WHEN...From 5 AM to 4 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will likely impact the Friday commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now