Scraff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: 'grats!! Looks like we might be able to break out the hockey skates too! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Maestro spiked the ball too soon We shall see...always happy for my takes to positively bust! I'll be quite happy if I try to spike the ball and end up slipping on ice in the process...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS continues to hold firm on the cold push. The NAM Nest was still a pretty solid ice event for areas north of a line of GAI-Savage-Annapolis. A more significant ice event is increasingly likely over areas north of I-70, especially once you get towards Central Frederick/Carroll/Baltimore/Harford counties. Temps will be borderline south of I-70 for areas below 500’. Above 500’ 27-30° will be possible with light/mod precip still in the area. CAA will still be occurring through the AM, so that benefits the icing setup with the FRAM numbers getting more substantial through the AM as a result. I think WSW criteria ice is possible for the northern tier, but a forecast around 0.1-0.2” is probably a good start. Glaze to 0.1 is probably solid starting point south of there. Regardless, local impacts to travel will be likely. Roads will get icy through the day and remain that way thru Saturday AM. It’s not going to be an all timer at first glance, but still not half bad. DC area will likely miss a majority of the ice. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 So what @MillvilleWx is saying is that my kids are going to have another rain day that might end with some glaze on trees and patio tables. They'll be happy to hear it! 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 'grats!! 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: So far, each 12z run has moved the cold air in faster than their respective 0z/6z runs. But GFS is still the coldest by quite a bit. I'm at the point where I hope the Euro is correct. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12z GFS FRAM Ice Accretion 12z NAM Nest FRAM Ice Accretion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Imgoinghungry will soon be Imgoingbyebye if he posts like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: GFS continues to hold firm on the cold push. The NAM Nest was still a pretty solid ice event for areas north of a line of GAI-Savage-Annapolis. A more significant ice event is increasingly likely over areas north of I-70, especially once you get towards Central Frederick/Carroll/Baltimore/Harford counties. Temps will be borderline south of I-70 for areas below 500’. Above 500’ 27-30° will be possible with light/mod precip still in the area. CAA will still be occurring through the AM, so that benefits the icing setup with the FRAM numbers getting more substantial through the AM as a result. I think WSW criteria ice is possible for the northern tier, but a forecast around 0.1-0.2” is probably a good start. Glaze to 0.1 is probably solid starting point south of there. Regardless, local impacts to travel will be likely. Roads will get icy through the day and remain that way thru Saturday AM. It’s not going to be an all timer at first glance, but still not half bad. DC area will likely miss a majority of the ice. What are your thoughts above the Mason Dixon line or should I say north of Harrisburg,pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: GFS continues to hold firm on the cold push. The NAM Nest was still a pretty solid ice event for areas north of a line of GAI-Savage-Annapolis. A more significant ice event is increasingly likely over areas north of I-70, especially once you get towards Central Frederick/Carroll/Baltimore/Harford counties. Temps will be borderline south of I-70 for areas below 500’. Above 500’ 27-30° will be possible with light/mod precip still in the area. CAA will still be occurring through the AM, so that benefits the icing setup with the FRAM numbers getting more substantial through the AM as a result. I think WSW criteria ice is possible for the northern tier, but a forecast around 0.1-0.2” is probably a good start. Glaze to 0.1 is probably solid starting point south of there. Regardless, local impacts to travel will be likely. Roads will get icy through the day and remain that way thru Saturday AM. It’s not going to be an all timer at first glance, but still not half bad. DC area will likely miss a majority of the ice. I won't allow it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 OH man I miss all the good post before they get deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Interstate said: OH man I miss all the good post before they get deleted nothing has been deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: What are your thoughts above the Mason Dixon line or should I say north of Harrisburg,pa? North of Harrisburg, I have no idea what to expect. There is a Central PA forum that has many members from there. They’ve been following this event for days. A great meteorologist is there as well. @MAG5035is awesome and should have a good feel. I’ve been on vacation back here in MD, so I’ve been tracking for my personal needs and for my home area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I will be happy if the Euro is right and we can keep the ice way... as I see it now my kids will get a week of summer vacation before they have to go back to school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 how much for dalmatia, pillow area, pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, MacChump said: how much for dalmatia, pillow area, pa? 0.000000000000000002 fathoms 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: So what @MillvilleWx is saying is that my kids are going to have another rain day that might end with some glaze on trees and patio tables. They'll be happy to hear it! We dont need any more rain day school closings. Kids will be in school till july! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I'm still having a hard time believing this for areas SE of the fall line. But you folks with elevation I guess are in store for decent ice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: GFS continues to hold firm on the cold push. The NAM Nest was still a pretty solid ice event for areas north of a line of GAI-Savage-Annapolis. A more significant ice event is increasingly likely over areas north of I-70, especially once you get towards Central Frederick/Carroll/Baltimore/Harford counties. Temps will be borderline south of I-70 for areas below 500’. Above 500’ 27-30° will be possible with light/mod precip still in the area. CAA will still be occurring through the AM, so that benefits the icing setup with the FRAM numbers getting more substantial through the AM as a result. I think WSW criteria ice is possible for the northern tier, but a forecast around 0.1-0.2” is probably a good start. Glaze to 0.1 is probably solid starting point south of there. Regardless, local impacts to travel will be likely. Roads will get icy through the day and remain that way thru Saturday AM. It’s not going to be an all timer at first glance, but still not half bad. DC area will likely miss a majority of the ice. Do you think the wave of low pressure behind the front will be enough to induce precip in the cold air? I'm always doubtful in these scenarios. The NAM shuts off most QPF once the cold air arrives - and 9 times out of 10 that always seems to work out best - even when there is wave along/behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: I'm still having a hard time believing this for areas SE of the fall line. But you folks with elevation I guess are in store for decent ice event I agree but us east-of-the_fall liners must keep in mind that each event is unique and simply dismissing each event at a glance because of our climatology is not forecasting, has no skill, and will eventually come back to haunt us I think an ensemble of regional models may be the way to go now to examine the profiles - certainly wouldn't trust any one simulation of an operational mesoscale model as they are bears to initialize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 If the ARW is right, theres gonna be some problems I'd say 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Im team ICON and CMC...both models have Baltimore at 56 and 58 degrees at 7am respectively 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Im team ICON and CMC...both models have Baltimore at 56 and 58 degrees at 7am respectively ICON was a good bit colder in some spots Friday morning on 12z vs 6z... for example 24 degrees cooler in York at 12z Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: ICON was a good bit colder in some spots Friday morning on 12z vs 6z... for example 24 degrees cooler in York at 12z Friday morning Yeah, I think NW of the fall line this is for sure a thing, I just think for metros/I95/my area, itll be tough to get that temp to 32 and lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: If the ARW is right, theres gonna be some problems I'd say The ARW2 is even colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 This one has a pretty clear setup for the NW to overperform and burbs to not be disrupted at all except for wet roads. A few small shifts away from impact closer in but few if any ice events like this have amounted to much and this spans many years. Eta: there was def a path to a disruptive event up and down 95. I'm just not seeing it anymore. If everything lined up, it would be pretty apparent. Not chasing a "maybe" under 3 days out. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 FWIW, and I say this with every caveat about no two events being the same, the ARW and ARW2 Hi-Res Windows were the coldest (and most erroneously cold) models for the January 20 rush hour bust. The GFS and Hi-Res Window FV3 were the next coldest. NAM and NAM Nest were next "best" but still a bit cold. The Canadian models did the best. Again, it was a single case, but it did involve shallow cold air spilling into the area. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: If the ARW is right, theres gonna be some problems I'd say In this depiction the 30.25 high is aligned ne to sw and it will push that low further east than the currently shown location 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 blah. Euro is just a smidge colder up here, 31/32 for most of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, mappy said: blah. Euro is just a smidge colder up here, 31/32 for most of the event. Yep, slightly higher in the freezing rain totals for you higher elevation folks but essentially unchanged for us lower elevation peeps and a non event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 WB 12Z EURO. None of the reliable models currently have an icing threat for DC and immediate surroundings. Will anyone but the extreme Northern and NW crew have any significant icing? TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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