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Feb 4 2022 Stupid Ice Threat


mappy
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GFS continues to hold firm on the cold push. The NAM Nest was still a pretty solid ice event for areas north of a line of GAI-Savage-Annapolis. A more significant ice event is increasingly likely over areas north of I-70, especially once you get towards Central Frederick/Carroll/Baltimore/Harford counties. Temps will be borderline south of I-70 for areas below 500’. Above 500’ 27-30° will be possible with light/mod precip still in the area. CAA will still be occurring through the AM, so that benefits the icing setup with the FRAM numbers getting more substantial through the AM as a result. I think WSW criteria ice is possible for the northern tier, but a forecast around 0.1-0.2” is probably a good start. Glaze to 0.1 is probably solid starting point south of there. 
 

Regardless, local impacts to travel will be likely. Roads will get icy through the day and remain that way thru Saturday AM. It’s not going to be an all timer at first glance, but still not half bad. DC area will likely miss a majority of the ice. 

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

'grats!!

 

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

So far, each 12z run has moved the cold air in faster than their respective 0z/6z runs.  But GFS is still the coldest by quite a bit.

I'm at the point where I hope the Euro is correct. Sigh.

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7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS continues to hold firm on the cold push. The NAM Nest was still a pretty solid ice event for areas north of a line of GAI-Savage-Annapolis. A more significant ice event is increasingly likely over areas north of I-70, especially once you get towards Central Frederick/Carroll/Baltimore/Harford counties. Temps will be borderline south of I-70 for areas below 500’. Above 500’ 27-30° will be possible with light/mod precip still in the area. CAA will still be occurring through the AM, so that benefits the icing setup with the FRAM numbers getting more substantial through the AM as a result. I think WSW criteria ice is possible for the northern tier, but a forecast around 0.1-0.2” is probably a good start. Glaze to 0.1 is probably solid starting point south of there. 
 

Regardless, local impacts to travel will be likely. Roads will get icy through the day and remain that way thru Saturday AM. It’s not going to be an all timer at first glance, but still not half bad. DC area will likely miss a majority of the ice. 

What are your thoughts above the Mason Dixon line or should I say north of Harrisburg,pa?

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8 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS continues to hold firm on the cold push. The NAM Nest was still a pretty solid ice event for areas north of a line of GAI-Savage-Annapolis. A more significant ice event is increasingly likely over areas north of I-70, especially once you get towards Central Frederick/Carroll/Baltimore/Harford counties. Temps will be borderline south of I-70 for areas below 500’. Above 500’ 27-30° will be possible with light/mod precip still in the area. CAA will still be occurring through the AM, so that benefits the icing setup with the FRAM numbers getting more substantial through the AM as a result. I think WSW criteria ice is possible for the northern tier, but a forecast around 0.1-0.2” is probably a good start. Glaze to 0.1 is probably solid starting point south of there. 
 

Regardless, local impacts to travel will be likely. Roads will get icy through the day and remain that way thru Saturday AM. It’s not going to be an all timer at first glance, but still not half bad. DC area will likely miss a majority of the ice. 

I won't allow it.

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3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

What are your thoughts above the Mason Dixon line or should I say north of Harrisburg,pa?

North of Harrisburg, I have no idea what to expect. There is a Central PA forum that has many members from there. They’ve been following this event for days. A great meteorologist is there as well. @MAG5035is awesome and should have a good feel. I’ve been on vacation back here in MD, so I’ve been tracking for my personal needs and for my home area. 

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22 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS continues to hold firm on the cold push. The NAM Nest was still a pretty solid ice event for areas north of a line of GAI-Savage-Annapolis. A more significant ice event is increasingly likely over areas north of I-70, especially once you get towards Central Frederick/Carroll/Baltimore/Harford counties. Temps will be borderline south of I-70 for areas below 500’. Above 500’ 27-30° will be possible with light/mod precip still in the area. CAA will still be occurring through the AM, so that benefits the icing setup with the FRAM numbers getting more substantial through the AM as a result. I think WSW criteria ice is possible for the northern tier, but a forecast around 0.1-0.2” is probably a good start. Glaze to 0.1 is probably solid starting point south of there. 
 

Regardless, local impacts to travel will be likely. Roads will get icy through the day and remain that way thru Saturday AM. It’s not going to be an all timer at first glance, but still not half bad. DC area will likely miss a majority of the ice. 

Do you think the wave of low pressure behind the front will be enough to induce precip in the cold air? I'm always doubtful in these scenarios. The NAM shuts off most QPF once the cold air arrives - and 9 times out of 10 that always seems to work out best - even when there is wave along/behind the front.

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5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I'm still having a hard time believing this for areas SE of the fall line. But you folks with elevation I guess are in store for decent ice event 

I agree but us east-of-the_fall liners must keep in mind that each event is unique and simply dismissing each event at a glance because of our climatology is not forecasting, has no skill, and will eventually come back to haunt us

I think an ensemble of regional models may be the way to go now to examine the profiles - certainly wouldn't trust any one simulation of an operational mesoscale model as they are bears to initialize

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

ICON was a good bit colder in some spots Friday morning on 12z vs 6z... for example 24 degrees cooler in York at 12z Friday morning

Yeah, I think NW of the fall line this is for sure a thing, I just think for metros/I95/my area, itll be tough to get that temp to 32 and lower

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This one has a pretty clear setup for the NW to overperform and burbs to not be disrupted at all except for wet roads. A few small shifts away from impact closer in but few if any ice events like this have amounted to much and this spans many years. 

Eta: there was def a path to a disruptive event up and down 95. I'm just not seeing it anymore. If everything lined up, it would be pretty apparent. Not chasing a "maybe" under 3 days out. 

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FWIW, and I say this with every caveat about no two events being the same, the ARW and ARW2 Hi-Res Windows were the coldest (and most erroneously cold) models for the January 20 rush hour bust.    The GFS and Hi-Res Window FV3 were the next coldest.    NAM and NAM Nest were next "best" but still a bit cold.    The Canadian models did the best.      Again, it was a single case, but it did involve shallow cold air spilling into the area.

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