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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3


Chicago Storm
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3 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

It’s been a while since I’ve been so unsure about what’s going to happen in a storm. Anywhere from 3-12” is a realistic possibility 

Seems like a good LEnS setup for you guys down there on the backside of the storm later Thursday. Some of the hi res models putting a maxima along the Niagara Escarpment.

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3 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Seems like a good LEnS setup for you guys down there on the backside of the storm later Thursday. Some of the hi res models putting a maxima along the Niagara Escarpment.

I’m just outside mount hope on the mountain. I’m lucky now that living on the escarpment means I enjoy warmer springs and cooler falls (used to live along Lake Ontario) but after 4 winters here I’ve learned I’m about 2-3 km too far south towards Lake Erie to get good lake Ontario lake effect. It happens but I’m in a weird zone where I catch the tail end of Huron squalls more often, followed by Ontario enhanced and finally once or twice a year get hit from Erie 

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3 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

I’m just outside mount hope on the mountain. I’m lucky now that living on the escarpment means I enjoy warmer springs and cooler falls (used to live along Lake Ontario) but after 4 winters here I’ve learned I’m about 2-3 km too far south towards Lake Erie to get good lake Ontario lake effect. It happens but I’m in a weird zone where I catch the tail end of Huron squalls more often, followed by Ontario enhanced and finally once or twice a year get hit from Erie 

That surprises me because Mt. Hope is right by YHM and I've seen some of the sick obs there when LES is really ripping. 

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35 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

What determines what size image you can post? 

 

Mine keeps changing, was 54.xx earlier and now only 10.79kb. Kind of annoying, not trying to spam with images.

You need to go to account > my attachments and clear some away.  You only have limited space 

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0720 PM CST TUE FEB 01 2022  
  
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL  
ILLINOIS  
  
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW   
  
VALID 020120Z - 020515Z  
  
SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP LATE THIS  
EVENING.  THIS MAY INCLUDE A DEVELOPING BAND WITH PEAK HOURLY RATES  
ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT.  
  
DISCUSSION...AS THE CENTER OF A FAIRLY BROAD AND DEEP SURFACE  
CYCLONE MIGRATES INTO AND ACROSS THE JAMES BAY VICINITY THIS  
EVENING, COLD SURFACE RIDGING IS IN THE PROCESS OF NOSING SOUTHWARD  
TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES, AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER INTO MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE DEEPENING LEADING EDGE OF SUB-FREEZING  
SURFACE-BASED AIR (INCLUDING THE SURFACE THROUGH AROUND 850 MB) IS  
IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL  
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, LIKELY INCLUDING THE  
CARROLLTON/BRUNSWICK/MOBERLY MO AND QUINCY IL AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT  
FEW HOURS.  
  
LATEST RAPID REFRESH INDICATES THAT THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH  
STRENGTHENING LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FRONTOGENETIC FORCING,  
INCLUDING THROUGH THE 700-500 MB LAYER, WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE  
CONDUCIVE TO LARGE DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH.  AIDED BY FORCING  
FOR ASCENT BENEATH AT LEAST BROADLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW, FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT LIFT MAY BECOME MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE  
DENDRITIC GROWTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BY 02-03Z, BEFORE  
DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH  
06-07Z.  
  
IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE GRADIENT OF A  
PLUME OF MOISTURE EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, WHERE  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND .5-.75 INCHES.  AS THE  
SURFACE-BASED SUB-FREEZING LAYER DEEPENS, A PERIOD OF SLEET MAY  
PRECEDE THE PRECIPITATION TRANSITION TO SNOW, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS  
FROM RECENT RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH, SUPPORTED BY OUTPUT FROM THE  
21Z NCEP SREF, SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR WITH 1-2 INCH  
PER HOUR SNOW RATES COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 03-06Z.  

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