Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

[Harry]

Hoping with the warmer temps that has wiped most of the snow cover away aids in slowing the front etc down and thus allows for a further nw adjustment.  

[snowstormcanuck]

8 minutes ago, Harry said:

Till the GFS or euro start making a decent shift nw I am not biting on the short range stuff and time is running out. 

Was thinking the same but RCNYILWX's post about jet forcing and the GFS has put a bit of an optimistic spring in my step.

[Toro99]

Plume mean for GRR is still holding steady at 11” from 6z to 6z. Is there a general rule that you should cut totals in half when using the plume viewer? Or at this range, can confidence in verification be given? Also, what ratio is used for SREF forecast products, Kuchera or 10-1? Sorry for lurker questions, love to learn. 

 

[RCNYILWX]

 
But seriously, stellar info - thank you for the perspective Ricky.
 
When is your shift?

No prob! Glad to help with analysis on here. I'm back 3pm-11pm tomorrow so for evening update AFD and any headline changes (if needed) would be me or MTF.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[Hoosier]

Was looking at some forecast soundings for Thursday in the LOT cwa and there's a pretty deep isothermal layer around -10C to -12C, which is right on the edge for getting good dendrites.  But a lot of the lift is higher up.  Ratios will be above 10:1 but there's not the greatest dgz/omega alignment.

[Powerball]

ILC143-020442-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Civil Danger Warning
IL Peoria County
Relayed by National Weather Service Lincoln IL
442 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

...Civil Danger Warning...

The following message is transmitted at the request of Peoria
County.

...This message is being issued for residents of the City of
Peoria.  A city-wide parking ban is in effect from 6pm February
1st through 6pm February 3.  Residents must move their vehicles
from all City streets to allow for plows and emergency vehicles.
Alternative parking locations include the south parking lot of
Northwoods Mall... 2200 West War Memorial Drive...  Twin Towers
Parking Garage... 123 South West Jefferson St... Niagara Parking
Garage... 109 West Adams Street... and the Jefferson Parking
Garage... 236 South West Jefferson Street. Parking is free in
these locations until 8 am on Saturday February 5. Do not park in
the alleys.  Any cars left on the streets are subject to towing
and tickets.  During this snow event... residents are asked to
stay home for their safety and to let snowplow drivers and
emergency vehicles work.  REPEAT- A City-Wide parking ban is in
effect for the City of Peoria starting at 6pm this evening.  For
more information... call 494 CARE Monday-Friday from 8 to 6 and
Saturday from 9 to 1...

$$

[Chicago Storm]

1 minute ago, Powerball said:

ILC143-020442-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Civil Danger Warning
IL Peoria County
Relayed by National Weather Service Lincoln IL
442 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

...Civil Danger Warning...

The following message is transmitted at the request of Peoria
County.

...This message is being issued for residents of the City of
Peoria.  A city-wide parking ban is in effect from 6pm February
1st through 6pm February 3.  Residents must move their vehicles
from all City streets to allow for plows and emergency vehicles.
Alternative parking locations include the south parking lot of
Northwoods Mall... 2200 West War Memorial Drive...  Twin Towers
Parking Garage... 123 South West Jefferson St... Niagara Parking
Garage... 109 West Adams Street... and the Jefferson Parking
Garage... 236 South West Jefferson Street. Parking is free in
these locations until 8 am on Saturday February 5. Do not park in
the alleys.  Any cars left on the streets are subject to towing
and tickets.  During this snow event... residents are asked to
stay home for their safety and to let snowplow drivers and
emergency vehicles work.  REPEAT- A City-Wide parking ban is in
effect for the City of Peoria starting at 6pm this evening.  For
more information... call 494 CARE Monday-Friday from 8 to 6 and
Saturday from 9 to 1...

$$

WEA were triggered for this, which is comical.

[RCNYILWX]

Good stuff and reason for optimism on the northern fringe.  Question is if it can overcome the feed of dry air.

My general perception is that more often than not dry air effects are overdone rather than underdone. Tonight-tomorrow will have the additional effect of f-gen sharpening up precip gradient, so I buy the sharp cutoff somewhere over northern IL (hopefully north of most forecasts for places up north that legit need the precip anyway).

Later tomorrow night and Thursday won't be a heavily banded setup up farther north, so I would tend to think the dry air effect would be overdone on a day like that, unless everything is squashed south, which is possible.

Last February 14-16 was a great example of favorable jet positioning aiding in a precip shield much farther north and west than earlier forecasts. Link to SPC mesoanalysis archive: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/action5.php?BASICPARAM=300mb.gif&STARTYEAR=2021&STARTMONTH=02&STARTDAY=15&STARTTIME=22&INC=-6

Textbook right entrance region of an anti-cyclonically curved upper jet streak. In addition to the strength of the mid-level wave, this magnitude of large scale ascent played a big role in both the expanded precip shield and the intensity of the lake effect into NE IL and far NW IN.

[Harry]

Rain has fired up here! 

[michaelmantis]

6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

My general perception is that more often than not dry air effects are overdone rather than underdone. Tonight-tomorrow will have the additional effect of f-gen sharpening up precip gradient, so I buy the sharp cutoff somewhere over northern IL (hopefully north of most forecasts for places up north that legit need the precip anyway).

Later tomorrow night and Thursday won't be a heavily banded setup up farther north, so I would tend to think the dry air effect would be overdone on a day like that, unless everything is squashed south, which is possible.

Last February 14-16 was a great example of favorable jet positioning aiding in a precip shield much farther north and west than earlier forecasts. Link to SPC mesoanalysis archive: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ma_archive/action5.php?BASICPARAM=300mb.gif&STARTYEAR=2021&STARTMONTH=02&STARTDAY=15&STARTTIME=22&INC=-6

Textbook right entrance region of anti-cyclonically curved upper jet streak. In addition to the strength of the mid-level wave, this magnitude of large scale ascent played a big role in both the expanded precip shield and the intensity of the lake effect into NE IL and far NW IN.





Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Snow is just drying up NE of I-39 and I-88. Someone in N IL is going to drive 10 miles Thursday and go from a dusting to 6 inches for sure. Now just where does that set up. 

[michsnowfreak]

29 minutes ago, Harry said:

Hoping with the warmer temps that has wiped most of the snow cover away aids in slowing the front etc down and thus allows for a further nw adjustment.  

Surprised we kept as much snow as we did after hitting 46 with some sun.

[WeatherMonger]

Not sure where to check, are there any reports of snow hitting the ground on the NW side of precip shield? Radarscope shows it both ILX and DVN radars. Thicknesses support it.

 

 

 

[Harry]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Surprised we kept as much snow as we did after hitting 46 with some sun.

 

My hope is the rain finishes it off.. Sunny spots is gone. Just the shaded spots were left.

[Powerball]

4 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Not sure where to check, are there any reports of snow hitting the ground on the NW side of precip shield? Radarscope shows it both ILX and DVN radars. Thicknesses support it.

 

 

 

Someone earlier in this thread from (I think) Elgin reported snow was mixing in.

EDIT: As the poster confirmed below, it was actually Galesburg.

[janetjanet998]

2 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Not sure where to check, are there any reports of snow hitting the ground on the NW side of precip shield? Radarscope shows it both ILX and DVN radars. Thicknesses support it.

 

 

 

Galesburg had a light snow symbol on the cod surface map at 22z

for some reason most of the obs are missing at 23z

 

 

 

[Harry]

Changeover here not expected till 2-3am.. 

[hlcater]

5 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Not sure where to check, are there any reports of snow hitting the ground on the NW side of precip shield? Radarscope shows it both ILX and DVN radars. Thicknesses support it.

 

 

 

One of my friends that was driving from STL to IC said snow in far NE MO near Ft. Madison

[cyclone77]

Me looking at the latest guidance.  

Enjoy the storm fellas!

[madwx]

Mping report of snow near Keokuk Iowa

[WeatherMonger]

Here was ILX's projected changeover times from earlier. Won't let me post many images from other phone.

 

[janetjanet998]

Looks like Galesburg now at freezing 

KGBG 012315Z AUTO 34011KT 10SM SCT042 BKN048 OVC055 00/M02 A3005 RMK AO2
     T00001019

 

what is the deal with all the missing obs?

[Gilbertfly]

[nwohweather]

35 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

WEA were triggered for this, which is comical.

Lol right? Nothing will top Hawaii’s false alarm though

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

67 was epic in the I-94 corridor.  My parents weren't living in Michigan then though.  They only remember Jan 78.

I wasn't alive for the 67 storm but I was for 78.  EPIC storms for sure.  Peoples memory of the storms are also EPIC.  There was likely a lot of snow already on the ground in GRR area in January as 77-78 was a big winter overall.  Couple things to consider when listening to the stories.  1) Most people are not weather geeks like us so take all details with lots of salt.  2) The news media talked about the Jan 78 blizzard for days.  News media over glorifies everything (got to get you to watch) and it totally influences people perceptions.

[Lightning]

25 minutes ago, Harry said:

Changeover here not expected till 2-3am.. 

around 4am here ... eternity 

[WeatherMonger]

14 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

Looks like Galesburg now at freezing 

KGBG 012315Z AUTO 34011KT 10SM SCT042 BKN048 OVC055 00/M02 A3005 RMK AO2
     T00001019

 

what is the deal with all the missing obs?

I don't know if it is related or not, but airport here in springfield had a failure and no longer reporting from like 10 or 11 pm until 6am. Lincoln has an issue as well

 

https://www.weather.gov/ilx/SPI_outage

[Chicago Storm]

Near-term Euro cave job for the overrunning event with the 18z run.

[ILSNOW]

18z Euro thru 36

[miamarsden8]

1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

18z Euro thru 36

Lol Euro can you not quash the remaining hope I have? Such tight gradients, such a difference between a mix, an ice storm, and a rain only event. Yikes!

[Chicago WX]

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Near-term Euro cave job for the overrunning event with the 18z run.

Ain’t what she used to be.