Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

[Stevo6899]

Detroit paper actually wrote an article on the bust. Unfortunately its events like these that make the public lose the trust about forecasts. One day we'll get that big dog and people will be stranded on freeways like ghd1 in chicago.

 

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2022/02/03/michigan-winter-storm-snow-metro-detroit-predictions/6646681001/

[Stevo6899]

14 minutes ago, Harry said:

Thought we would make a run at a foot but fell short a little with 10.5. Disappointed because I missed the best rates here being stuck in Kalamazoo till the afternoon. 

 

In the end another typical higher end storm for this region and nothing really to write home about imby. Our computer models still have a ways to go especially where handling stuff up in Canada/pole goes. 

The rarity of this storm is how widespread the 6+ amounts will be. Hope someone does a final map that includes everything from the whole thing 

 

Should do a poll to see when everyone thinks the older snowstorm records fall at Detroit, Here and or wherever they are 50+ years old. My belief is this record here will be standing long after I am gone. Detroit has a much better shot at it. Ofcourse it may not seem that way to those living there but that damn record if I recall is 140 yrs old so that sucker is long overdo to fall. 

 

 

Records aint gonna fall as long we live here. Maybe its us and we should move.

[mimillman]

6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

5.6" with this one at ORD, which is biggest of this season there.

Downtown has had larger events, such as this one. However, about roughly half of the metro has not had a 6"+ storm this season.

That’s definitely a flip from the usual 

[Chicago Storm]

I see a 12" report out of @Hoosier and @Chicago WXold stomping grounds, from their favorite guy.

[Lightning]

5 minutes ago, laferri2 said:

I'm watching the snow blow off my roof and pretending it's a blizzard out. 

I do that when there is dense fog that you can't see like 25 feet.  Dream it is snowing with 25 feet visibility. 

[Lightning]

Very light snow at Mt. Holly.  How is it further south around DTW?

[wxman_ind]

5" IMBY so far. Nearly 3 times the seasonal snowfall from before the storm.

[Harry]

1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said:

Records aint gonna fall as long we live here. Maybe its us and we should move.

 

I have thought that because yeah records have fallen in every direction from here except east along I94 to Detroit since my first winter here in 04-05. 

 

It really is like pulling teeth to get a really good quality storm here. 

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

I see a 12" report out of @Hoosier and @Chicago WXold stomping grounds, from their favorite guy.

In Chad we trust.

[Powerball]

42 minutes ago, Harry said:

Thought we would make a run at a foot but fell short a little with 10.5. Disappointed because I missed the best rates here being stuck in Kalamazoo till the afternoon. 

 

In the end another typical higher end storm for this region and nothing really to write home about imby. Our computer models still have a ways to go especially where handling stuff up in Canada/pole goes. 

The rarity of this storm is how widespread the 6+ amounts will be. Hope someone does a final map that includes everything from the whole thing 

 

Should do a poll to see when everyone thinks the older snowstorm records fall at Detroit, Here and or wherever they are 50+ years old. My belief is this record here will be standing long after I am gone. Detroit has a much better shot at it. Ofcourse it may not seem that way to those living there but that damn record if I recall is 140 yrs old so that sucker is long overdo to fall. 

 

 

I'm not sure what the synoptic setup was like in the 1880s, but for 1974, the pattern just hasn't been conducive for that type of storm in the central/western Great Lakes.

For most of the epic/historic snowstorms in this region (see Buffalo last month for example), they required deep closed upper level lows, a negative tilt trough, no greenland block and a surface low with gulf origins.

The closest things came was 2/26/13. But thermals were an issue for that system.

Until we can shake up the upper level flow so that it's not so damn uber-progressive, it's going to be awhile.

 

[Hoosier]

8 hours ago, Chicago WX said:

Finished with 11.5" here. Wasn't able to do my final measurement until 4:30 (6:00 am first), so maybe there was a bit of settling to deny a footer.   Regardless, awesome storm. One of my most challenging days since I started with the PO. Got stuck (and unstuck) 5 times yesterday.  Alas, what could have been if earlier runs had part 2 come thru here. Some real nice banding just to my south this morning in Iroquois County. Seems a bit further north than recent models had it. Maybe something like what RC had mentioned in an earlier post.. Actually snowing here right now, albeit lightly. Good luck to those down south and east today... 

We had practically identical totals... almost down to the tenth.  

[Indystorm]

And FYI we have a number of confirmed tornadoes sw of Birmingham AL on the warm side of this system.

[Baum]

2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

LE across the Chicago area looking fairly uneventful, even more-so than I had imagined.

 

what are the odds? Temps in the teens, strong N-NE wind flow, and a storm passing southeast of us and can barely buy a flurry from the lake. That's just bad fortune. 

[WeatherMonger]

Picture doesn't do the drift justice. Starts about 4 feet in front of me all the way to the gate. Had to dig out in front of the gate to get it open. Only got about half the drift out just kept  pushing it into backyard. I don't use this part of the drive much. Pretty much just cleared the gate then made a path for my dog and cleared a section of grass for him to do his thing. 

 

[tuanis]

18 minutes ago, Baum said:

what are the odds? Temps in the teens, strong N-NE wind flow, and a storm passing southeast of us and can barely buy a flurry from the lake. That's just bad fortune. 

Meat of the band impacting Racine/Kenosha counties at the moment, but still doesn't look all that impressive. Getting steady snow globe action up here and it's blowing around a bit, but not amounting to much. Looks nice anyways.

[WeatherMonger]

Last flurry has fallen here, storm over.

[SolidIcewx]

54 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Very light snow at Mt. Holly.  How is it further south around DTW?

It’s a decent light snow I already have an inch and a half of snow. Now that the wind has picked up I got another big snowdrift covering my sidewalk 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

 

I have thought that because yeah records have fallen in every direction from here except east along I94 to Detroit since my first winter here in 04-05. 

 

It really is like pulling teeth to get a really good quality storm here. 

Records fell like domino's in 2013-14. But in terms of snowSTORM records, we just had the 3rd largest snowstorm in 2015. I foresee us eventually knocking over 2nd place, the 1974 storm, but I really doubt we ever touch the 1886 storm. Which was in April of all things.  I really doubt you will ever surpass the 1967 or 1978 storm either, but you should be able to make a run at your 3rd.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Lightning said:

Very light snow at Mt. Holly.  How is it further south around DTW?

 Snowy, blowy and drifty. Today will definitely be over performing.

[Radtechwxman]

Hard to measure because of drifting but several reports anywhere from 10-12in around me. Was a 12in report on my road to the east and 11in+ report just to my south. Peoria airport to my southwest had officially 10.6in. Definitely best winter storm I have had in years. Had many periods of moderate snow and several of heavy snow. One thing I found interesting was that flake size overall through the event was pretty small but we still managed to get good totals probably owing to good ratios with very cold temperatures. The two things I wish that happened was for wave 2 to hit up here also and for more wind during the snowfall. But it was still a great storm. I got my double digit snowfall and I'm happy 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Man what could've been with the front end foot, then another foot from the main show. Dtw found a way to miss out on both. Gonna sting for awhile. Msp seen an 8+ storm, chicago, cleveland, buffalo, des moines, fort wayne, east coast, mid atlantic, nashville. Dtw all left on its own.

Chicago got 5.6".  And actually, DTW very well may eclipse 8" since todays wave moved farther Northwest.  I mean yeah it's 2 waves and I don't consider them the same event but that's what everyone was tracking the whole time. I'm surprised you are actually lowering the bar to 8", which Detroit has actually had more of than many of the cities you just listed, in the past 5 years.  I thought you only cared if it was 18"+ otherwise you wanted 85 and Sunny.  This storm was a nw trending, warm tongue, cement snow, flash freeze bust, but you know darn well Detroit has no problem typically getting 8 to 12" snow storms. It's eclipsing the foot that is that is like pulling teeth and the ironic thing about 2015 is that the jackpot zone actually lined up around the DTW corridor. The storm itself, while a good one, was not as fierce as the 1 the year before, but in that 2014 storm DTW only saw 11" while other areas saw 15 or 16".

[michsnowfreak]

Guess today's storm really did trend Northwest as well. For the radar the snow line goes all the way back to Lansing and right now DTW is at 0.5 mile visibility. Frustrations of the storm aside it's a very classic Winter day outside right now.

 

Edit-  Very surprised at how today is over performing. Just stepped outside for a minute and there's probably about 1.5 already, did not officially measure though. Will easily exceed 8 for the 2 day total

[SolidIcewx]

I was going to say we got some decent bands going thru. On top of that the snow drifts are getting pretty good I’m very pleased with todays outcome even tho it’s not the 12” I was eyeing. But yes we do get good 8 to 12s around DTW. One day we will get a big boy and go dayuuum it’s a learning lesson to not always hope for kuchera. Funny that TWC does not have us for any accumulation but clearly around DTW we got 2 with maybe another inch on the way.

[Chambana]

Fun storm. Let’s do it again. Winds still howling like crazy. Rural roads are impassable. 

[SolidIcewx]

5 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Fun storm. Let’s do it again. Winds still howling like crazy. Rural roads are impassable. 

I know right I don’t mind being on pins and needles due to anticipation it’s all In the fun of the chase

[WeatherMonger]

31 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Hard to measure because of drifting but several reports anywhere from 10-12in around me. Was a 12in report on my road to the east and 11in+ report just to my south. Peoria airport to my southwest had officially 10.6in. Definitely best winter storm I have had in years. Had many periods of moderate snow and several of heavy snow. One thing I found interesting was that flake size overall through the event was pretty small but we still managed to get good totals probably owing to good ratios with very cold temperatures. The two things I wish that happened was for wave 2 to hit up here also and for more wind during the snowfall. But it was still a great storm. I got my double digit snowfall and I'm happy 

The initial 7.9" report that came in yesterday was from .58" QPF, equates to 13.65:1 SLR

 

Guessing the 3.5+ that has fallen since midnight will be even higher.

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

I was going to say we got some decent bands going thru. On top of that the snow drifts are getting pretty good I’m very pleased with todays outcome even tho it’s not the 12” I was eyeing. But yes we do get good 8 to 12s around DTW. One day we will get a big boy and go dayuuum it’s a learning lesson to not always hope for kuchera. Funny that TWC does not have us for any accumulation but clearly around DTW we got 2 with maybe another inch on the way.

 I'm glad I had the driveway clear because the snowboard is useless it's so drifty.  But it does seem to be already be approaching 2", we should be able to easily see 3" today

[WeatherMonger]

7 minutes ago, Chambana said:

Fun storm. Let’s do it again. Winds still howling like crazy. Rural roads are impassable. 

I'm good for awhile this would have absolutely sucked shoveling by hand

[Harry]

Got some mood flakes here and there but that's about it. 

[Frog Town]

Yeah, this thing definitely did better than thought on the NW side.  Here in Toledo we are at 8" and it's still snowing.  Will probably grind out another inch.