Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

[Ottawa Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Had the main storm worked out this could have been an aside but ah well.  Some snow is better than no snow at all.

Yes, at least it will freshen up the snowpack in preparation for the next polar blast.

Judging by the medium range, the snow won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

[Jackstraw]

Just got back from a ride.  its knarley already out here in the sticks.  Roads are drifting amazingly well.  All the snow thats fallen is fluff.  still nice nickle dendrites with a sustained 20-25 mph N wind.  I'm estimating close to 3 inches so far.  It really hasnt let up.  I'm really surprised at seeing over 1 foot drifts already.  If it keeps up we're gonna be snowed in by morning.  Snow plow pic from about 15 min ago on HWY 28.  I love the snow in the headlights when driving, reminds me of blank tv channels on the TV's when I was kid.  Yes you turn the brightness down and it looked the bridge viewer on Star Trek lmao.  You know the tv's, you had to get off yer ass to change the channel lol.

[miller.b.time]

Looks like it’s finally on the verge of completely changing over we just N of Indy. Still a few pingers mixing in, but otherwise SN

[WeatherMonger]

[Cary67]

1 hour ago, mimillman said:

This storm going down as the November karma storm in my mind. Next time we lose to the NW burbs in November, we’ll remember this. 

Would think the central and southern burbs along with the loop have had their share of victories the last few years

[snowstormcanuck]

DTX with a nice "post"-mortem.

Quote

000
FXUS63 KDTX 030044
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
744 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

.UPDATE...

The upper level jet dynamics and deep layer frontal forcing will wane
during the remainder of the evening and overnight. This will allow a
slow decrease in the lingering snowfall across the area. Ongoing cold
air advection with the northerly winds is allowing arctic air to
flood back into Se Mi. With temperatures dropping into the teens and
low 20s overnight, untreated surfaces are going to be ice covered.
Given the ongoing deteriorating road conditions and lingering light
snow, will opt to allow the current headlines to remain in place
through the overnight. The exception will be across Midland and Bay
Counties were the snow has either ended or will be ending shortly. A
late evening update will likely remove the headlines in some counties
across the north.

This system did not lack moisture. The 12Z Wed DTX sounding had a
precipitable water value of 0.67 inches, quite high for early
February and had a deep layer of saturation. With the extended outage
of the KDTX radar, many radar composites today have given the
impression that the returns were weakening as they entered Se Mi.
That was not the case as the composites simply had no returns over
much of Se Mi due to the radar outage.

There was a rather robust upper jet response today which triggered
deep layer frontal ascent across the baroclinic zone across Se Mi.
These types of systems can lead to a tremendous variability in
snowfall amounts across a relatively short distance, which occurred
in this event. The upper jet forcing was perhaps a little farther
north than earlier model solutions suggested and the surface wave
across the Ohio Valley was a bit stronger. This likely contributed to
the better system relative isentropic ascent setting up farther
north and west this morning. Once these elevated frontal circulations
develop, they often become rather persistent. So the axis of
heaviest snow set up from SW Lower Mi into the
Lansing/Owosso/Flint/Saginaw/Caro regions and held through the entire
day. This region was also colder and transitioned to snow earlier,
so liquid snow ratios were higher. Larger flake size may have also
contributed to this. Reports from this region are suggestive of snow
totals in the 10 to 12 inch range, with some locally higher amounts
certainly possible.

The stronger sfc reflection in the Ohio Valley also helped slow the
sfc cold front across Se Mi. This kept the eastern portions of the
area, from Adrian up through metro Detroit and Port Huron warmer
today. The Tues evening DTX sounding suggested the warm layer was
deeper and more pronounced than many model solutions suggested. This
delayed the transition from rain to snow by several hours. Even when
the rain did transition to snow, lingering boundary layer warmth
contributed to a lot of melting/compaction through much of the day.
Observations here at the NWS office in White Lake also suggested a
lack of good dendrites through much of the event, which also
contributed greatly to lower snowfall totals. So while reports are
still filtering in, and minor additional snowfall will occur during
the rest of the night, indications are that much of the southern and
eastern portions of the forecast area will end up with total snowfall
on the order of 4 to 7 inches.

 

[Baum]

7 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Would think the central and southern burbs along with the loop have had their share of victories the last few years

yeah. payback gonna be a bitch. And I'm old enough to know this shiat evens out.

[Powerball]

6 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

DTX with a nice "post"-mortem.

 

Gotta give it to them. That's a damn good bow tie to put on a bust.

[laferri2]

Just now, Powerball said:

Gotta give it to them. That's a damn good bow tie to put on a bust.

SSDD. Same snow, different day. I guess the lesson is, don't move to Metro Detroit if you want interesting weather. 

[RCNYILWX]

If anyone from LOT CWA has reports from their area that you'd like to go out as LSRs, reply to my post here. Include estimated time you measured. Thanks. 

Edit: I had a storm total in Naper Carriage Hill of 7.8" on DuPage side (I back up to 87th St), but then a neighborhood friend just south of the county line in Will reported 8.5", so seems like anywhere from 7.5" to 8.5" in my general area. Good storm. 

[WeatherMonger]

Looks like they have calmed the winds a bit for tonight and tomorrow here. What I shoveled earlier just blew back in and erased it. 

Additional snow seems yo be going by the wayside as well, will end up at or just shy of 8". 

 

While I never thought 2 feet was going to happen which a lot of the models showed, I did think into the teens was possible until late last evening.

 

Happy none the less, except for the shoveling. Using the 4 wheeler and plow tomorrow if winds are down, other wise mailman path and sidewalks until they do.

[ILSNOW]

4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

If anyone from LOT CWA has reports from their area that you'd like to go out as LSRs, reply to my post here. Include estimated time you measured. Thanks. 

3 inches here in Buffalo Grove 11am

are these amounts possible or as i believe way over done? close to 16 in the middle of that band

 

[RCNYILWX]

8 hours ago, ILSNOW said:

Got 3 here any  thoughts on the possible lake overnight into tomorrow?

Doesn't look nearly as favorable as last week's event due to much lower inversion heights and less instability, but the convergence is quite good and persistent and good agreement that it'll be nearly stationary for a while tomorrow into tomorrow evening. Part of the event looks to be seeder feeder due to synoptic lift (upper jet forced) upstairs with DGZ saturated, and then low level lake induced lift, with DGZ partially saturated (up to about -15C) down there. Tomorrow evening we'll lose seeder feeder with a transition to low level saturation only and still up to about -15C. Thinking is this all shouldn't result in an intense single band for most of the time but a focused area of snow showers with embedded heavier snow showers. Potential exists for a band to get going tomorrow evening. Due to lake induced portion of the sounding not being fully saturated up to -18C (top of DGZ), expectation is smaller, lower quality snowflakes that should keep rates in check, but good convergence could result in heavier snow showers producing solid rates and sub 1SM visibility (small flakes tend to reduce visibility as or more effectively than quality dendrites). We'll probably have Lake County in an advisory with the evening update. In the update to convert central and south Cook over to an advisory, mentioned accumulation of 1-4". 

[mimillman]

24 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Would think the central and southern burbs along with the loop have had their share of victories the last few years

The loop routinely gets rain in November and December when the burbs get snow. It’s the way of the world 

[Chicago Storm]

2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

3 inches here in Buffalo Grove 11am

are these amounts possible or as i believe way over done? close to 16 in the middle of that band

 

Parameters do look a but better than they once did, but not that good.

[RCNYILWX]

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

Parameters do look a but better than they once did, but not that good.

Yeah, feel pretty confident the HRRR is overdoing things again. 

[RCNYILWX]

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Any thoughts on the northern end for tomorrow?  I pulled some forecast soundings locally and there's a pesky dry layer around 900-850 mb, but most of the rest of the column is moist/almost saturated.  

Obviously wherever the lake effect band is would help.

Unfortunately the southern stream wave is in strong agreement to get squashed far enough south to preclude much in way of additional snow sans lake effect (see my post above), but with decent synoptic lift maybe low quality seeder feeder in your area. Guidance continues to focus the convergence axis onto the IL side after brief period this evening over Lake County IN. 

[Stebo]

5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Unfortunately the southern stream wave is in strong agreement to get squashed far enough south to preclude much in way of additional snow sans lake effect (see my post above), but with decent synoptic lift maybe low quality seeder feeder in your area. Guidance continues to focus the convergence axis onto the IL side after brief period this evening over Lake County IN. 

Sad we can't get a within 12 hour bump NW like the lead wave.

[ILSNOW]

7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Parameters do look a but better than they once did, but not that good.

I would have close to a foot today based off RAP and HRRR from yesterday. Which hi res model should do the best with lake effect?

[RogueWaves]

3 hours ago, Jonger said:

Once twice in my life has DTW hit 12+!

Very difficult to even imagine #1 happened. But I guess there are photos. I mean, it was the 1880's

[cyclone77]

Event map from DVN.  Pretty sharp cutoff pretty much as modeled.

 

[Baum]

where's the first legit 20" report going to come from?

[michsnowfreak]

At least we're making a nice evening run of a snowy blowing night. The concrete blanket of snow that fell earlier is no joke.  I hope my snowblower doesn't clog because it's a heart attack waiting to happen. I can honestly say I've never walked in more dense snow. An hour ago near 5", maybe closing in on 6" now. The first 3.5" or so were less than 5-1 ratio.  

[mimillman]

10 minutes ago, Baum said:

where's the first legit 20" report going to come from?

Honestly at this rate if I had to guess it’s going to be Peoria or the near north side 

[Chicago Storm]

11 minutes ago, Baum said:

where's the first legit 20" report going to come from?

Nowhere.

[TheClimateChanger]

This would be a historic storm in northeast Ohio. Wow.

[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

DTX with a nice "post"-mortem.

 

Oklahoma city is gonna outsnow us.

[WeatherMonger]

18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Nowhere.

That's what she said too 

[laferri2]

23 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

At least we're making a nice evening run of a snowy blowing night. The concrete blanket of snow that fell earlier is no joke.  I hope my snowblower doesn't clog because it's a heart attack waiting to happen. I can honestly say I've never walked in more dense snow. An hour ago near 5", maybe closing in on 6" now. The first 3.5" or so were less than 5-1 ratio.  

I am looking forward to testing my new electric snowblower with this trash. 

[SolidIcewx]

10 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Oklahoma city is gonna outsnow us.

And that’s sad lol. It was hella hard to shovel glad I did before my swamp yard turns into a ice age worthy glacier