Weather Mike Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, sbnwx85 said: Lots of moisture out there already. GOM is open for business 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 ditched a couple clunkers that showed up for a run of da plumes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 ILX saying 7-12 storm total for PIA in new zones with 3-5 overnight might have 5-9 by 12z if HRRR is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, frostfern said: Midnight to midnight is a weirdly arbitrary figure though. I'd just like to see the number of times an accumulation over 12" happens in any 24 hour period. GHD 1 was the last event I can recall that pulled that off in GRR. It gets rare as soon as you get east of the major NW flow lake effect belts. Biggest totals here are mostly synoptic / lake-effect combos that occur over a 48-72 hour period. It's just not the same is when it comes down heavy all at once. GHD 1 was special because the bulk of it came down in under 12 hours with a lot of wind to push it around. Closest thing I've seen to something you would see on the east coast. Yeah it is rare to get that in this part of the world.. Guess I am gonna have to do some research because here in Battle Creek the only two I am certain that pulled it off I mentioned already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gilbertfly said: Serious torching southern sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Dorsn't look like much changed on the 18z GFS with the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS still loves me, the rest of you got me like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Harry said: Yeah it is rare to get that in this part of the world.. Guess I am gonna have to do some research because here in Battle Creek the only two I am certain that pulled it off I mentioned already. I don't know how many people who post are old enough to remember 1978. I always see these pictures of what looks like three feet of snow and drifts up to the roofs of cars but it seems misleading. My folks don't remember the details, but they seem to imply that there was a already a decent amount of snow on the ground before the storm. It would be like if you combined the constant clipper trains of Jan/Feb 2014 with GHD 1. GHD 1 happened after a cold and dry January with otherwise below normal snowfall. I imagine if there was already quite a bit of snow on the ground that was still powdery enough to blow and added whatever 12-18" fell in that particular storm you'd get those kind of drifts you see in pictures that give the illusion it snowed 6 feet. People you talk to still seem to think it snowed 2 feet in that storm when in reality it didn't. It never has snowed 2 feet in 24 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Given the overall state of the models and now getting into hi-res range, and with added lake contribution, I am pretty confident in at least a foot for downtown Chicago. Certainly a higher ceiling than that though depending on things like banding and just how significant the lake can contribute. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Good luck guys, looks like the event is starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, frostfern said: I don't know how many people who post are old enough to remember 1978. I always see these pictures of what looks like three feet of snow and drifts up to the roofs of cars but it seems misleading. My folks don't remember the details, but they seem to imply that there was a already a decent amount of snow on the ground before the storm. It would be like if you combined the constant clipper trains of Jan/Feb 2014 with GHD 1. GHD 1 happened after a cold and dry January with otherwise below normal snowfall. I imagine if there was already quite a bit of snow on the ground that was still powdery enough to blow and added whatever 12-18" fell in that particular storm you'd get those kind of drifts you see in pictures that give the illusion it snowed 6 feet. People you talk to still seem to think it snowed 2 feet in that storm when in reality it didn't. It never has snowed 2 feet in 24 hours. Total for Jan 67 was 28.6. storm total not daily total which I posted. 21.1 on Jan 26 and 7.5 on Jan 27. Qpf total was amazing with 2.86! Rare beast for this part of the world. Straight 10-1 ratios.. Keep in mind probably have had many of storms that say started at noon and finished noon the next day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 34 and snow mixing in at Galesburg as of 22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18z GFS 250 mb winds, isotachs, and heights valid 18z ThursdayThis is a pretty classic favorable jet right entrance region for northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and SW MI. Jet level forcing can do a lot of the work to cause a more expansive precip shield (and in this case would be doing a lionshare of the forcing). If the jet configuration verifies similar to this, don't be surprised if there's snow farther north, kind of like what the RGEM has been showing.My friend who's a lead at OKX (WFO NYC) said they deal with this all the time with east coast storms. He said anecdotally the GFS is always too far south and east with precip tied to jets. As it stood on the 18z run, there was a slight tick north vs 12z. Something to watch. Getting synoptic snow father north would also help the lake enhancement part, plus this good synoptic lift is a favorable factor for lake effect alone. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: GFS still loves me, the rest of you got me like Hope you get your big dog total. Yesterday I was expecting a goose egg IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just can't get that damn GFS to come back nw fast enough! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 21z RAP was slightly NW/stronger with the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, frostfern said: Hope you get your big dog total. Yesterday I was expecting a goose egg IMBY. I'm just worried because I have been in the bullseye totals for way longer than one should be. Every run of every model. It's one of those, if it seems too good to be true, it probably is things. Stopping to get some whiskey on the way home, have to work tomorrow and need to sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Harry said: Total for Jan 67 was 28.6. storm total not daily total which I posted. 21.1 on Jan 26 and 7.5 on Jan 27. Qpf total was amazing with 2.86! Rare beast for this part of the world. Straight 10-1 ratios.. Keep in mind probably have had many of storms that say started at noon and finished noon the next day. 67 was epic in the I-94 corridor. My parents weren't living in Michigan then though. They only remember Jan 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: 21z RAP was slightly NW with the 2nd wave. 16'' downtown STL lol, crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasestormz39 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: I'm just worried because I have been in the bullseye totals for way longer than one should be. Every run of every model. It's one of those, if it seems too good to be true, it probably is things. Stopping to get some whiskey on the way home, have to work tomorrow and need to sleep I still think you get smacked with I’ll be in Bloomington, IL and hoping for the same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18Z RAP soundings now have me under 6 hours of pingers and FZ. Better not have to give up a foot of snow for that just so the folks on Northern edge can get 3 or 4 more inches. Thats meltdown criteria lol. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 18z GFS 250 mb winds, isotachs, and heights valid 18z Thursday This is a pretty classic favorable jet right entrance region for northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and SW MI. Jet level forcing can do a lot of the work to cause a more expansive precip shield (and in this case would be doing a lionshare of the forcing). If the jet configuration verifies similar to this, don't be surprised if there's snow farther north, kind of like what the RGEM has been showing. My friend who's a lead at OKX (WFO NYC) said they deal with this all the time with east coast storms. He said anecdotally the GFS is always too far south and east with precip tied to jets. As it stood on the 18z run, there was a slight tick north vs 12z. Something to watch. Getting synoptic snow father north would also help the lake enhancement part, plus this good synoptic lift is a favorable factor for lake effect alone. But seriously, stellar info - thank you for the perspective Ricky. When is your shift? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 RAP is the new hotness for DuPage, Will and Cook 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 20 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 18z GFS 250 mb winds, isotachs, and heights valid 18z Thursday This is a pretty classic favorable jet right entrance region for northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and SW MI. Jet level forcing can do a lot of the work to cause a more expansive precip shield (and in this case would be doing a lionshare of the forcing). If the jet configuration verifies similar to this, don't be surprised if there's snow farther north, kind of like what the RGEM has been showing. My friend who's a lead at OKX (WFO NYC) said they deal with this all the time with east coast storms. He said anecdotally the GFS is always too far south and east with precip tied to jets. As it stood on the 18z run, there was a slight tick north vs 12z. Something to watch. Getting synoptic snow father north would also help the lake enhancement part, plus this good synoptic lift is a favorable factor for lake effect alone. Thanks a lot for this insight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: RAP is the new hotness for DuPage, Will and Cook Still got time to grab that flight! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gilbertfly said: Still got time to grab that flight! I wish brother. Snow has just commenced here with probably 5-9” on the way, more if the HRRR is right and mids start tonight. Smack Joe for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 This has potential to be the biggest storm I've covered while working in news. The anticipation is palpable. So much planning and preparation happening today...now we wait. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Till the GFS or euro start making a decent shift nw I am not biting on the short range stuff and time is running out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 34 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 18z GFS 250 mb winds, isotachs, and heights valid 18z Thursday This is a pretty classic favorable jet right entrance region for northern Illinois, northern Indiana, and SW MI. Jet level forcing can do a lot of the work to cause a more expansive precip shield (and in this case would be doing a lionshare of the forcing). If the jet configuration verifies similar to this, don't be surprised if there's snow farther north, kind of like what the RGEM has been showing. My friend who's a lead at OKX (WFO NYC) said they deal with this all the time with east coast storms. He said anecdotally the GFS is always too far south and east with precip tied to jets. As it stood on the 18z run, there was a slight tick north vs 12z. Something to watch. Getting synoptic snow father north would also help the lake enhancement part, plus this good synoptic lift is a favorable factor for lake effect alone. Good stuff and reason for optimism on the northern fringe. Question is if it can overcome the feed of dry air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now