Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

[DaveNay]

Waiting at school to pick up my son, about 6-7 miles south of home. The gradient is absolutely amazing. Maybe 2" at home, but close to 6" at school.

Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk

[nwohweather]

Looks like from Sylvania to Airport Hwy they're getting some solid snows, but Maumee shows rain still. What a hell of a gradient

[SolidIcewx]

4 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

You need to call Safelite sir

Hey she’s my work truck rusty but trusty as I say  better in the snow then my jeep 

[Jendoc]

I'm not complaining here.   Been snowing since 10 pm

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Yup, huge bust for Toronto. I'd be surprised if we get to 4", to be honest. Maybe 2"?

[WeatherMonger]

ILX seems a bit optimistic for the second round, probably cut those numbers in half, around I-72 IMO

 

[Jackstraw]

The northern part of the front is painstakingly creeping E/SE.  Ive flipped back and forth  from rain, pingers and snow 3 times in the last hour.

[homedis]

Measured 8.4” w/ SN currently, this last band wont leave & I wont complain lol

Before and after pics:

https://imgur.com/a/85BanTt

[TiptonMike]

 
Nice, thanks for sharing that.  You could really see that turbine speed up as it transitioned to snow that was cool.  Still hoping for big numbers.  Models are trying to kiss us.  I just drove up to Nevada to see some flakes, it started kicking really good there.  Yes Im impatient as hell with this one, its the first single snow over an inch for the season here lol.
 
 

Just got home from Indy. 28 east of 31 is snow covered.


.

[Toronto4]

11 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Yup, huge bust for Toronto. I'd be surprised if we get to 4", to be honest. Maybe 2"?

Looking like a 2-4” event for the GTA at most as per latest model trends. Rain is scheduled to change to snow sometime around 6-7 pm.

Besides the January 17, 2022 storm, the Nov 28, 2021 snowfall is the next best event of this winter. 4-5” of picturesque snow and temperatures remained at or just below freezing with minimal impact on roads.

[michsnowfreak]

Moderate to heavy snow all afternoon at DTW yet we have about 2.5" of the lowest ratio cement I can recall. Prob 5-1 ratio. Wind picking up, temp dropping,  finally should turn powdery. Roads a disaster of glued slush starting to freeze. Watch that warm nose toronto folks. It sucks.

[Powerball]

000
FXUS63 KDTX 022112
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
412 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

.DISCUSSION...

...Impactful Winter Storm Continues Through the Evening....

MIMIC-TPW PW product continues to show a nice open flow of Gulf
moisture surging through across the Midwest and Great Lakes with the
earlier 12Z RAOB sounding at DTX recording a PW value of .68 inches,
placing it above the 90th percent moving average for this time of
year. Good system relative isentropic ascent has capitalized on this
surplus of moisture, working along and north of an area of low-level
frontogenesis centered between h925 to h800. Some early day synoptic
lift from upper-jet dynamics coupled with the above brought
impressive and consistent snow rates of 1"/hr around the Flint
region, with 6 hour observed totals coming in at 6 inches at Flint
Bishop Airport as of 18Z. Recent reports show 20Z totals nearing the
8-10 inch mark for this region. Totals across the Metro region have
lagged behind these higher totals north due to a late transition
from rain to snow that cut away from the front-end of snow totals,
with a secondary factor being the low snow totals as temperatures
have hovered around the 32 degree mark. The best push of snow will
impact the Metro region through the evening and is discussed below...

Moist isentropic ascent and low-level frontogenesis will continue to
produce widespread light to moderate snowfall across all of SE MI
for the remainder of the late afternoon and evening hours, but the
better snow rates (half-inch to three-quarter inch) are expected to
transition and remain south across the northern and southern Metro
regions, down into the MI/OH border, where better isentropic ascent
resides. The ongoing forecast calls for additional accumulations of
around 2-5 inches for locations under the Winter Storm Warning
(higher amounts hedged across Metro regions) through about Midnight.
The loss of upper-jet support and weaker isentropic ascent coupled
with the intrusion of very dry air moving in from the northeast
between h800-h675 will put an end or will significantly hamper
snowfall production leading into early Thursday morning. Snow is
expected to first taper off and end across the Winter Weather
Advisory zones late this evening through around Midnight from west
to east, which coincides well with the current end time of the
advisory. It is now looking increasingly likely that snow will then
end across the northern half of the ongoing Warning areas around the
I69 corridor and down to about I696/96 or so shortly after Midnight
as dry air continues to expand south, while locations south to the
MI/OH border may see a brief end to activity or lighter snow. An
earlier end time to the ongoing Warning or downgrade to a Winter
Weather Advisory will be possible overnight, but will let the
current system play out and let following shifts make the call.
Otherwise, ongoing caa will drop overnight lows into the teens while
an uptick in wind gust potential to around 20-25 mph will make it
feel like the lower single digits.

Better forcing will hold south of the state line overnight leading
into Thursday morning and afternoon, but there still remains
sufficient moist isentropic ascent aloft with some weaker mid-level
fgen that will either maintain or bring renewed snow chances after a
brief lull roughly along and south of I-94. It is possible to see
some expansion of snowfall north of this into the M59 corridor, but
elevated moisture will have to overcome the dry air in place from an
advancing polar high. Will maintain likely PoPs south of I-94, where
additional accumulations ranging between 1-2 inches will be
possible, hedged over Lenawee/Monroe Counties and centered Thursday
mid-morning into Thursday early evening. Additional changes to
Thursday snowfall will be possible as some hi-res output (ARW) has
the snow completely missing the state. Otherwise, locations north
are expected to remain dry with the exception of the northern Thumb
late Thursday morning into the early afternoon which may see a light
dusting of snow as the fetch veers north-northeast. Cold air remains
settled over the state as highs attempt to peak in the lower 20s.
Any snow activity seen will move out during the late evening as a
strong arctic high builds across the Great Lakes. Fresh snowpack and
an even better push of colder air with h850 temps dropping below
- 10C will support overnight lows in the single digits and wind
chills in the negative single digits.

The bulk of Friday will remain dry as a shortwave carves southeast
from the northern Plains into Michigan by the evening. NBM guidance
keeps the area dry with the passage of the wave, but could see PoPs
trending slightly up with synoptic enhancement coupled with
northwesterly flow advecting lake moisture inland. Friday and
Saturday temperatures are forecasted to stay below normal with highs
in the upper teens to lower 20s.

[laferri2]

Snow finally finished covering the grass in my yard. Deepest part of the cover is 1.5" and it's only lightly snowing. Starting to think I'm gonna struggle to hit 4".

[SolidIcewx]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Moderate to heavy snow all afternoon at DTW yet we have about 2.5" of the lowest ratio cement I can recall. Prob 5-1 ratio. Wind picking up, temp dropping,  finally should turn powdery. 

I’m waiting for that moment too my yard is low so it’s gonna be a true glacier. I’m hoping we get clipped decently by wave 2

[mississaugasnow]

7 minutes ago, Toronto4 said:

Looking like a 2-4” event for the GTA at most as per latest model trends. Rain is scheduled to change to snow sometime around 6-7 pm.

Besides the January 17, 2022 storm, the Nov 28, 2021 snowfall is the next best event of this winter. 4-5” of picturesque snow and temperatures remained at or just below freezing with minimal impact on roads.

The snowpack though will most likely not budge without massive heat and rain after this haha 

[andyhb]

Michigan: where exciting weather goes to die.

[laferri2]

2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Michigan: where exciting weather goes to die.

It's not so bad, Michigan is supposedly going to be one of the few livable places after climate change accelerates. 

[Powerball]

On 2/1/2022 at 7:18 AM, Stevo6899 said:

Typical news hype, local news saying this could be one of detroits largest on record. Im just not seeing it.  I still feel like if it takes 36 hrs, it shouldn't count as one event. I hope those in N in, IL and nw ohio can cash in on a 2 footer.

EDIT: The average joes on Social Media are getting antsy too. They're going to be out for blood, lol.

[sbnwx85]

I haven't been able to go out and measure lately...but several 8.2" reports around South Bend at 3:00 EST.

[Jonger]

11 minutes ago, laferri2 said:

Snow finally finished covering the grass in my yard. Deepest part of the cover is 1.5" and it's only lightly snowing. Starting to think I'm gonna struggle to hit 4".

Damn..... like 5 inches here.

[Lightning]

1 minute ago, Jonger said:

Damn..... like 5 inches here.

I just went out to measured multiple times. All at 7".  

[SolidIcewx]

It’s starting to cool off faster especially once the sun sets we still should get several hours of some good fluff

[laferri2]

Just now, Jonger said:

Damn..... like 5 inches here.

My kids just went out to play in the snow and came right back in, saying it hurts when it hits them and it's too heavy to do anything with. Absolute garbage snow.  

 

[Owensnow]

16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Moderate to heavy snow all afternoon at DTW yet we have about 2.5" of the lowest ratio cement I can recall. Prob 5-1 ratio. Wind picking up, temp dropping,  finally should turn powdery. Roads a disaster of glued slush starting to freeze. Watch that warm nose toronto folks. It sucks.

Switched over from RA here at 4pm right to +SN and awesome ratios right away

[Powerball]

Oof!!!

 

[Jonger]

2 minutes ago, laferri2 said:

My kids just went out to play in the snow and came right back in, saying it hurts when it hits them and it's too heavy to do anything with. Absolute garbage snow.  

 

You guys got burned by a slow changeover.

It was snowing here at 2am!

[Jonger]

Just now, Powerball said:

Ooof!!!

 

Weenies saw the bust coming around 8am. That article was probably created by an out of touch normie.

[SoBosSnow]

Was home in South Boston for the blizzard and now in NW Ohio to visit family. Would be a record week of winter weather if we can pick up a foot+ in Defiance by Thursday evening.

Just got home from a drive from Ottawa Hills taking Rt 24 to Defiance. Was snowing in Ottawa Hills at 3:30 and then rain in Perrysburg. Moderate to heavy snow once we hit Napoleon and Defiance and going for the last 30 min. Accumulating quickly on roads and grass despite the rain . It's going to flip in the next 15 minutes for entire route 24 area if it hasn't already. 

 

[laferri2]

3 minutes ago, Jonger said:

You guys got burned by a slow changeover.

It was snowing here at 2am!

Deepest part of my yard, 3". Most of the yard is a good inch lower. 

When the temperature drops and all this freezes up it's going to be a nightmare. I might be able to go pick up my entire yard as one sheet. 

[Lightning]

Kuchera => Chicago Ratio maps and 10:1 => Detroit Ratio