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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3


Chicago Storm
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1 minute ago, nwohweather said:

I'm going full broken record here, but the models never really showed a full change over in Toledo until around 1-2. IMO everyone is jumping the gun here on lowering totals including the TV stations. Reports out of IL/IN are pretty convincing

So you still think NW Ohio has a shot at 12-14"?  Thanks for the reply.

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9 minutes ago, Crispus said:

I have some friends planning to drive from Peoria to the U of I game in Champaign tonight. They tried to convince me to go with 'em, but I didn't think it was a good idea. Feeling like I made the right call so far.

Def the right call. Interstate between Mahomet and Champaign is closed.

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I'm in Elgin IL (Northern Kane around I-90) and *right* on the borderline of the snow line ending on radar (as of 12:20 PM) and the flakes are best of the event right now in my area. 

Looks like something may be trying to build up again around I-39 and I could squeeze an inch or two more out of this on the razors edge. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2022-02-02 at 12.23.35 PM.png

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11 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I'm going full broken record here, but the models never really showed a full change over in Toledo until around 1-2. IMO everyone is jumping the gun here on lowering totals including the TV stations. Reports out of IL/IN are pretty convincing

I can see it but lowering the totals also makes sense. I think 12" will be the max for NW Ohio and SE MI. Too much qpf was lost to rain/wet snow. Buffalo mentioned ratios could be as low as 4-6:1 for a period of time. 

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1 minute ago, Frog Town said:

So you still think NW Ohio has a shot at 12-14"?  Thanks for the reply.

100%. Good moisture transport & solid forcing aloft should help it rip later this evening, especially back towards the IN/OH border. I think the models may be struggling a bit in the near term for the second wave as it's trying to "dry it up". I say that hesitantly though as this is playing out almost verbatim what the Euro has been showing the last few days. 10-15" is a solid bet for both systems and has been for the past few days in my opinion. Still, with that jet placement it looks like the overall winners are going to be in the I-69 to US-31 corridor back in Indiana

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2 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

I'm in Elgin IL (Northern Kane around I-90) and *right* on the borderline of the snow line ending on radar (as of 12:20 PM) and the flakes are best of the event right now in my area. 

Looks like something may be trying to build up again around I-39 and I could squeeze an inch or two more out of this on the razors edge. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2022-02-02 at 12.23.35 PM.png

^ last night's RAP making a run to verify

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22 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

It was very painful in Toledo watching it try to switch for four hours.  The front must of have been traveling at 10mph.... Finally switched over and hoping we can still get to a foot.  That's my threshold for this not to go to shit.  

I think we are good.  HRRR and RGEM still keep snow through tonight and likely all day tomorrow.

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1 hour ago, Jonger said:

That gap in the system burned us. Saginaw might get 12 inches, Monroe might get 12 inches and Lansing, Howell, Pontiac..... 4 to 8.

We'll see on Thur or Friday when the final storm report comes out.

Radar could fill in and make this all moot, but I wouldn't bank on it.

I was really hoping things would improve as that the heavier band that went over the Chicago land area moved in.  It seems to have only filled in the radar while dropping in intensity.  Flake size has been meh at best as ratios look to be still 10:1 here.

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1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said:

I can see it but lowering the totals also makes sense. I think 12" will be the max for NW Ohio and SE MI. Too much qpf was lost to rain/wet snow. Buffalo mentioned ratios could be as low as 4-6:1 for a period of time. 

But that's where forecasting comes into play ;)

Seriously though you could tell this was going to happen. 1-2" through lunch time, 2-4" through the afternoon & dinner time, 3-5" through the night, 3-5" on Thursday morning/lunch time. Falls right in line with that 10-15" forecast

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9 minutes ago, michaelmantis said:

I'm in Elgin IL (Northern Kane around I-90) and *right* on the borderline of the snow line ending on radar (as of 12:20 PM) and the flakes are best of the event right now in my area. 

Looks like something may be trying to build up again around I-39 and I could squeeze an inch or two more out of this on the razors edge. 

 

 

Screen Shot 2022-02-02 at 12.23.35 PM.png

I'm just to the east of your red rectangle, and there's nothing falling from the sky under those returns.

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2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Horrendous conditions in the neighborhood right now, quality event, LE may push us to the double digit promised land 

Yep, probably somewhere between 8 and 8.5" now with some heavier returns approaching... already satisfied, rest is just bonus. I think we'll end at 9-10" pre-LES :weenie:

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9 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

I'm just to the east of your red rectangle, and there's nothing falling from the sky under those returns.

And it looks like the event is going to be over for me! Now time to shovel!

Decent little event and the models actually handled the cut-off (in N IL anyway) very nicely it appears. 

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2 minutes ago, BigHoss48192 said:

A whopping inch in SE Michigan where I’m at. Looks like we’re getting screwed again.  We were supposed the be the bullseye.  Landing had over 8” already.

Yep, another storm that's gonna end up wrapping around the Metro area. The Oakland\Wayne\Macomb weather shield in action. 

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13 minutes ago, laferri2 said:

Yep, another storm that's gonna end up wrapping around the Metro area. The Oakland\Wayne\Macomb weather shield in action. 

When was the last time a storm "wrapped around" the 3 county metro area? It's clearly not going to be an epic storm but as nwohio has been posting...it seems many don't even follow timelines. 

 

I'm pissed that the old snow caused pudding on the frozen ground and also that we won't be getting epic accumulation, but it still should be a solid storm by tmrw. And looks like it'll be very scenic.

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10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

When was the last time a storm "wrapped around" the 3 county metro area? It's clearly not going to be an epic storm but as nwohio has been posting...it seems many don't even follow timelines. 

 

I'm pissed that the old snow caused pudding on the frozen ground and also that we won't be getting epic accumulation, but it still should be a solid storm by tmrw. And looks like it'll be very scenic.

Lansing usually does well with systems that track from the SW. Banding usually end up forming west of 75. East side cant get any good banding thus far. May still end up with 6 or so. Glad I decided to stay put down here. 85 n sunny today.

 

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