Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

[Chicago Storm]

 

 

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[ChiTownSnow]

Going it old school. Surprised u didn't do an observation thread

[hlcater]

I prefer 300 pages of whining, ICON runs and backyard predictions. Not sure what this 34 page/thread crap is all about

[Chicago Storm]

1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Going it old school. Surprised u didn't do an observation thread

everything has always gone in one around here.

[Harry Perry]

First time I’ve personally witnessed plumes this high clustered between 12-25” 

[Stevo6899]

Better luck this time around on a last minute nw trend with the main energy.

[WestMichigan]

Going back to the previous thread there was a discussion on 12" storms.  Here is GRR's numbers on that from their afternoon AFD.

One other point I want to make is, looking at our climate data for
frequencies of a foot or more of snow at Kalamazoo, Battle Creek
and Jackson, getting a foot or more from midnight to midnight is a
rare event. At Jackson, since 1944, there have been only 3 such
events, 16 inches in March 1973 being the greatest, and 14 inches
in in late January 1978 (blizzard of 78 fame) and early January
in 1999. For Kalamazoo, the record as 18 inches in the blizzard of
1978, then there was 16 inches in December 1907, and 13 inches in
mid January of 1979. Our grid point snow total is 12.5 inches for
Jackson, 11.7 for Kalamazoo and 12.3 for Battle Creek. If this
actually happens it would be a top 4 event for all 3 of these
sites.

[andyhb]

Someone needs to dig up the baro post in @Thundersnow12's sig for nostalgic purposes, since I'm pretty sure it was about now 11 years ago that things started to go to hell in a hand basket around these parts.

[Stevo6899]

18z rgem def namish, may actually be more nw with the main wave. 15" metro detroit kuchera.

[Thundersnow12]

2 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Someone needs to dig up the baro post in @Thundersnow12's sig for nostalgic purposes, since I'm pretty sure it was about now 11 years ago that things started to go to hell in a hand basket around these parts.

I still remember reading that exact post when he posted it that night. Great memories 

[Powerball]

@michsnowfreak

It's definitely a solid storm for sure. But it's not the worth the travel expense for me. I was mainly in it for the historical possibility.

Intuitively, I knew it was a long shot, but the fact that the GFS was pretty consistent for a while had me intrigued.

[Jonger]

Come on guys....we need more models posted, I'm dying here.

Need MORE info.

[Chicago WX]

FWIW, 18z 3km nam was an improvement as well. 

[Harry]

7 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Going back to the previous thread there was a discussion on 12" storms.  Here is GRR's numbers on that from their afternoon AFD.

One other point I want to make is, looking at our climate data for
frequencies of a foot or more of snow at Kalamazoo, Battle Creek
and Jackson, getting a foot or more from midnight to midnight is a
rare event. At Jackson, since 1944, there have been only 3 such
events, 16 inches in March 1973 being the greatest, and 14 inches
in in late January 1978 (blizzard of 78 fame) and early January
in 1999. For Kalamazoo, the record as 18 inches in the blizzard of
1978, then there was 16 inches in December 1907, and 13 inches in
mid January of 1979. Our grid point snow total is 12.5 inches for
Jackson, 11.7 for Kalamazoo and 12.3 for Battle Creek. If this
actually happens it would be a top 4 event for all 3 of these
sites.

 

Yeah he forgot to add in Battle Creek. The two I know of are Jan 67 with 21.1 and Jan 78 with 18.0 and both are Jan 26th. 

[WeatherMonger]

 

The force is strong with all you north of me people. Doing my best to hold it in place

 

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

Haven't done an extremely detailed comparison but the current placement of the rain band seems to be on the northern end of guidance at the very least.

[andyhb]

7 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

I still remember reading that exact post when he posted it that night. Great memories 

Here they are.

[McHenrySnow]

3 minutes ago, Jonger said:

Come on guys....we need more models posted, I'm dying here.

Need MORE info.

enjoy 

[Owensnow]

[SchaumburgStormer]

If we are ballin' like its 2011... 

 

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Haven't done an extremely detailed comparison but the current placement of the rain band seems to be on the northern end of guidance at the very least.

HRRR is banging the north drum hard. 

[wegoweather]

Battle for which is messier, the storm or creating 3 threads for the storm.

[Chicago Storm]

Just now, wegoweather said:

Battle for which is messier, the storm or creating 3 threads for the storm.

you'll survive either way.

[Hoosier]

Looks like LOT has around 18" max in the forecast for parts of the cwa.  

But we want at least 20, don't we?

[Weather Mike]

2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

HRRR is banging the north drum hard. 

love that. Bang that north drum 

[Thundersnow12]

6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

If we are ballin' like its 2011... 

 

 

The old OG

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like LOT has around 18" max in the forecast for parts of the cwa.  

But we want at least 20, don't we?

Actually, the 18" max is only through Wed night.

[sbnwx85]

Lots of moisture out there already.

[frostfern]

34 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Going back to the previous thread there was a discussion on 12" storms.  Here is GRR's numbers on that from their afternoon AFD.

One other point I want to make is, looking at our climate data for
frequencies of a foot or more of snow at Kalamazoo, Battle Creek
and Jackson, getting a foot or more from midnight to midnight is a
rare event. At Jackson, since 1944, there have been only 3 such
events, 16 inches in March 1973 being the greatest, and 14 inches
in in late January 1978 (blizzard of 78 fame) and early January
in 1999. For Kalamazoo, the record as 18 inches in the blizzard of
1978, then there was 16 inches in December 1907, and 13 inches in
mid January of 1979. Our grid point snow total is 12.5 inches for
Jackson, 11.7 for Kalamazoo and 12.3 for Battle Creek. If this
actually happens it would be a top 4 event for all 3 of these
sites.

Midnight to midnight is a weirdly arbitrary figure though.  I'd just like to see the number of times an accumulation over 12" happens in any 24 hour period.  GHD 1 was the last event I can recall that pulled that off in GRR.  It gets rare as soon as you get east of the major NW flow lake effect belts.  Biggest totals here are mostly synoptic / lake-effect combos that occur over a 48-72 hour period.  It's just not the same as when it comes down heavy all at once.  GHD 1 was special because the bulk of it came down in under 12 hours with a lot of wind to push it around.  Closest thing I've seen to something you would see on the east coast.

[Kaner88]