Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

[RogueWaves]

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Got 6.0" here, the top drifted and fluffed up nicely to give it that "marshmallow" look but the bottom is unreal. You don't even hit ground when walking on it (and I'm a big guy). Definitely a solid snow base. Will be interesting to see how hard it gets as temp continues to drop. Low 20s now. 

So somehow, down river scored a couple more inches than here? I swear, Canton-Plymouth-Livonia's the new Macomb with every compass direction out-scoring me. Can we just move onto spring already. This is a mega-annoying place to be this winter. 

[laferri2]

Just now, RogueWaves said:

So somehow, down river scored a couple more inches than here? I swear, Canton-Plymouth-Livonia's the new Macomb with every compass direction out-scoring me. Can we just move onto spring already. This is a mega-annoying place to be this winter. 

There is only one Macomb, says the guy with 4 inches of cement and nary more than a rumble of thunder in 11 years.

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Congrats on an over-achiever storm up there! Drove thru on 23 Saturday and snow at that point may have been a bit less than down here. Hard to say as the freeway median is notoriously a poor example of surrounding areas.

 I'm recently relocated to the west burbs (Plymouth-Canton) but seriously considering moving up to Fenton when my lease is up this July. Not because this is "Shaft City" when it comes to snowstorms. I have a sister in Fenton and other fam up that way (Genesee and Saginaw counties). Plus, my sister's apt is like an expensive custom-built home for 2/3rds the rent I'm paying. I'd be back to a sizeable commute, but other than the occasional day like today, mostly it's not a bad one if I stay away from the 96/275/696 triangle of congestion. 

After many years with often large commute distances, I have/am enjoying having just an 8 mile drive to work. But it's hardly worth "the rent", especially for this drafty old place. Fenton's a nice little community similar to Marshall where we moved from. I like the upscale touristy downtown. It also has all the chain stuff out by US23 that we didn't have in little tiny Marshall so there's another bonus. 

 Frustrations with THIS storm aside, we've certainly been doing better than Saginaw with snow storms on the whole the past many years.  Flint or Fenton definitely would be a better option storm wise haha. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

So somehow, down river scored a couple more inches than here? I swear, Canton-Plymouth-Livonia's the new Macomb with every compass direction out-scoring me. Can we just move onto spring already. This is a mega-annoying place to be this winter. 

You only got 4"?  There was a time late this afternoon when you were supposedly between banding, but without an accurate radar who knows.  6" More or less here to Monroe

[Dalfy]

First flakes just starting to fall in the STL metro area. It's incredible to see the precip shield of the two waves on one map, there's rain and snow falling from the US-mex border all the way to maine. 

[RogueWaves]

14 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 Frustrations with THIS storm aside, we've certainly been doing better than Saginaw with snow storms on the whole the past many years.  Flint or Fenton definitely would be a better option storm wise haha. 

Yeah, Saginaw's got a weird winter climo thing going. They're on the far northern edge of the SMI zone, so the storm centered in the zone will be tapering off up there. But occasionally, they score really big like that storm in 2008 that dropped 17 or 18". They will get help via Saginaw Bay when the NE winds are rocking and that has helped them put up huge numbers back in '67/'73/'76/'78/'84. When I was a teen/young adult back in the 80's living in Genesee, those mild winters 87/88/89/90 we'd get like 5" while they'd get 10". Was a definite gradient across that roughly 45 miles back then. They had a great winter in 04-05 too, with many storms, deep snow cover, that lasted almost into April. I was living up there at that time with fam.  

[miamarsden8]

Our forecast calls are getting wild. Per weather.gov's Winter Storm Warning for us:

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  three tenths of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph on
  Thursday.

Then you go to weather.com's forecast:

Thursday: A mix of wintry precipitation in the morning. Then periods of snow expected in the afternoon. Potential for significant icing. High 31F. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precip 100%. Snow and ice accumulating 8 to 12 inches.

Thursday night: Snow in the evening will transition to snow showers overnight. Some sleet or freezing rain possible. Low 18F. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

Then accuweather is like "yeah 1-2 inches". It's like...absurd. I've never seen forecasting like this before. In western Illinois, at least I was prepared for weenie numbers ending up depressing. This just tells me not to trust anything and just kick back and relax.

[RogueWaves]

19 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

You only got 4"?  There was a time late this afternoon when you were supposedly between banding, but without an accurate radar who knows.  6" More or less here to Monroe

Hawkeye posted a map showing the entire CONUS storm totals to that time-stamp. It had the 4" line running right through here and was very accurate. At that point, it showed 3-4 south down your way. Guessing you continued to snow after map time, while we were pretty much finished at that point. Hence the differences.

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Hawkeye posted a map showing the entire CONUS storm totals to that time-stamp. It had the 4" line running right through here and was very accurate. At that point, it showed 3-4 south down your way. Guessing you continued to snow after map time, while we were pretty much finished at that point. Hence the differences.

Picked up over 2" of powder after 7pm.  It will be interesting to see what the total liquid equivalent of the snow was when I thaw out my rain gauge 

[miamarsden8]

Additionally, none of these models seem to be in agreement. It's basically 1 inch or 12 inches. Cincinnati is weird, man.

[RogueWaves]

25 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

You only got 4"?  There was a time late this afternoon when you were supposedly between banding, but without an accurate radar who knows.  6" More or less here to Monroe

Work office is in Livonia (not far east of Plymouth township line) where it was just plain rain when I arrived at 6:30. I don't have a window I can see from my desk, but there are plenty to look out whenever I get up for anything and I'd say changeover occurred between 7:30 and 8. It was very slow, not a sudden white-out of huge flakes or anything dramatic. I came home for lunch about 12:30 so 4 hours later and only brushed about 3/4" of sloppy stuff off my car, while the parking lot was more like 1/2" during that 5 hours! Poor rates, small flakes, and a temp of 32.5F was just "one tick" above white rain. One of the lamest excuses for snowstorm I've ever witnessed tbh. 

[RogueWaves]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Picked up over 2" of powder after 7pm.  It will be interesting to see what the total liquid equivalent of the snow was when I thaw out my rain gauge 

That map from 7:44 pm

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, RogueWaves said:

Work office is in Livonia (not far east of Plymouth township line) where it was just plain rain when I arrived at 6:30. I don't have a window I can see from my desk, but there are plenty to look out whenever I get up for anything and I'd say changeover occurred between 7:30 and 8. It was very slow, not a sudden white-out of huge flakes or anything dramatic. I came home for lunch about 12:30 so 4 hours later and only brushed about 3/4" of sloppy stuff off my car, while the parking lot was more like 1/2" during that 5 hours! Poor rates, small flakes, and a temp of 32.5F was just "one tick" above white rain. One of the lamest excuses for snowstorm I've ever witnessed tbh. 

We were a tad less than that at 1230.  It was like an April snow, complete with a few hours of SN+ obs at DTW that just couldn't stack up, but then it definitely started adding up into a solid concrete slab as the afternoon wore on then took on a legit snowstorm feel by evening as temps fell and snow was blowing and drifting.

[hawkeye_wx]

19 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Hawkeye posted a map showing the entire CONUS storm totals to that time-stamp. It had the 4" line running right through here and was very accurate. At that point, it showed 3-4 south down your way. Guessing you continued to snow after map time, while we were pretty much finished at that point. Hence the differences.

Here's a map updated at midnight.

[RogueWaves]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

We were a tad less than that at 1230.  It was like an April snow, complete with a few hours of SN+ obs at DTW that just couldn't stack up, but then it definitely started adding up into a solid concrete slab as the afternoon wore on then took on a legit snowstorm feel by evening as temps fell and snow was blowing and drifting.

Lots of trees where there's not buildings around here, so it's not open much and I've yet to see true drifting. Took my wife to the store about 7 tho, and noticed the stiff winds blowing the snow more sideways in the lights of businesses like car dealers, etc. Also snow blowing off roof tops. Certainly looked the "storm" part this evening, but then it was done an hour later, lol. Had that continued for several hours, perhaps this could've redeemed itself from the failed storm trash heap, lol. 

[RogueWaves]

16 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Here's a map updated at midnight.

So, per that I'm firmly in the 4-6" region. The CONUS map has a 5.1" a bit north of here. I suppose we may have nibbled our way to the 5" mark after we got home at 7:30 but the compaction of the lower layer, large puddles soaking up more on my sidewalks, etc it just isn't 5" out there on the level. More like 3.5 or so by eyeballing. Basically, it just restored the amount we had OTG from the clippers. Wash, rinse, repeat on our snow depth here this winter. Once a pattern establishes for a winter, they're very stubborn. Depth here has been stuck in a 2-4" rut it just can't seem to break free of. 

[RogueWaves]

That's a 9.5" for Marshall. Wonder how Harry did in BC? Looks like Lansing was the winner at 12.9" that's a nice storm for SMI non-LES locale. 

Confirmation on the Marshall number via GRR's table of winners. Looks like the same person on the north side of town that reports in bigger storms. The one that had the 11.6" report during the 2016 storm when Marshall was in the bullseye. 

 

[Jackstraw]

00Z Euro not looking good from a suppression standpoint.  Repeating my mantra "I know my climo, there's nothing I can do about my climo, I accept my climo".  If I need to head SE and get some real Cincinnati chili, not that fake skyline crap, to see more snow I will lol.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Honestly glad that the Lansing folks who thought it was gonna bust for them overachieved and got the strong band. I feel bad for everyone from Adrian east who got stuck in rain for 5 hours extra 

[Dalfy]

I've been in 20-25dbz returns for the last hour or so, I'll take a short walk to get sense of depth. Visibility slightly under a mile I want to say. Temp is 17. 

[Jackstraw]

Thats a ton of precip heading NE for February

[RogueWaves]

11 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Thats a ton of precip heading NE for February

IWX going 2-6" NW to SE across their CWA, with stiff winds and powdery snow. Today should be a true storm day anywhere outside of the cities where the winds have their way. 

[Jackstraw]

FZ starting in the warned areas.  Really hope forecast is overdone

[Stevo6899]

Buffalo is on fire this winter, synoptic snow wise!

[Chicago WX]

Finished with 11.5" here. Wasn't able to do my final measurement until 4:30 (6:00 am first), so maybe there was a bit of settling to deny a footer.   Regardless, awesome storm. One of my most challenging days since I started with the PO. Got stuck (and unstuck) 5 times yesterday.  Alas, what could have been if earlier runs had part 2 come thru here. Some real nice banding just to my south this morning in Iroquois County. Seems a bit further north than recent models had it. Maybe something like what RC had mentioned in an earlier post.. Actually snowing here right now, albeit lightly. Good luck to those down south and east today... 

[Powerball]

Heavy sleet for hours on end really does suck.

And yet, its only redeeming quality is that it's better than freezing rain.

[snowstormcanuck]

36 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Finished with 11.5" here. Wasn't able to do my final measurement until 4:30 (6:00 am first), so maybe there was a bit of settling to deny a footer.   Regardless, awesome storm. One of my most challenging days since I started with the PO. Got stuck (and unstuck) 5 times yesterday.  Alas, what could have been if earlier runs had part 2 come thru here. Some real nice banding just to my south this morning in Iroquois County. Seems a bit further north than recent models had it. Maybe something like what RC had mentioned in an earlier post.. Actually snowing here right now, albeit lightly. Good luck to those down south and east today... 

Resisting the urge to slant stick.  Good work!  On that and your nice snow storm.

[snowstormcanuck]

3.5" officially at YYZ but on pavement it looks more like 1-2" of cement coated with powder.

Let's see if we can weasel our way past the 40" mark for the season this p.m.

[Chicago WX]

9 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Resisting the urge to slant stick.  Good work!  On that and your nice snow storm.

lol, yes. And thanks. I enjoyed it. Of course, any snow is good snow in my book.

[Lightning]

6 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Congrats on an over-achiever storm up there! Drove thru on 23 Saturday and snow at that point may have been a bit less than down here. Hard to say as the freeway median is notoriously a poor example of surrounding areas.

 I'm recently relocated to the west burbs (Plymouth-Canton) but seriously considering moving up to Fenton when my lease is up this July. Not because this is "Shaft City" when it comes to snowstorms. I have a sister in Fenton and other fam up that way (Genesee and Saginaw counties). Plus, my sister's apt is like an expensive custom-built home for 2/3rds the rent I'm paying. I'd be back to a sizeable commute, but other than the occasional day like today, mostly it's not a bad one if I stay away from the 96/275/696 triangle of congestion. 

After many years with often large commute distances, I have/am enjoying having just an 8 mile drive to work. But it's hardly worth "the rent", especially for this drafty old place. Fenton's a nice little community similar to Marshall where we moved from. I like the upscale touristy downtown. It also has all the chain stuff out by US23 that we didn't have in little tiny Marshall so there's another bonus. 

I drive US23 to work a lot (I work at that 96/275/696 area north on the 5). Yes there are times the side of the roads on US23 look like there is hardly any snow and yet you get off the beaten path and it is totally different.  I will say Fenton proper area is a bit of a snow hole.  I have found just east (Holly) and south (toward Hartland/Highland) actually does better for snow.  I am south of Fenton more in the hills.  I will say Fenton proper is a T-storm magnet compared to MBY.  It is like we swap who does better between summer and winter.