Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3

[mimillman]

[weatherbo]

[bowtie`]

^ Your snow is going to fall off of the ground that way.

[bowtie`]

Not any more.

 

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, laferri2 said:

I am looking forward to testing my new electric snowblower with this trash. 

I hear lots of people's are clogging. That damn warm nose screwed us with ungodly low ratios. The heavy wet snow fell all day at quarter to half mile visibility and we struggled, now this evening it's stacking much faster. Glad we are fluffing up some tonight. 

[Dalfy]

Second wave at LSX's doorstep, hoping for 4-8''to pad the 2'' from this morning. 

[janetjanet998]

47 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Honestly at this rate if I had to guess it’s going to be Peoria or the near north side 

it's over here , not sure why ILX still has me under a winter storm warning thru tomorrow 

had about 10-12 inches in the city isolated spots up to 13 in the metro 

I suspect ILX will downgrade soon to a WAA for blowing snow and maybe another inch 

it stopped snowing here about 5 hours ago and may not snow again

Lots schools and other places closing again tomorrow partly because of the winter storm warning for up to 6 more inches

 

a complete joke 

it was evident 24 hours ago the 2nd system was trending south and I even mentioned if ILX would downgrade the 2nd half of the  almost 48 hour winter storm warning in the other thread

but to keep it going in the new zones this afternoon is just pathetic and will be a another example of "the weatherman always gets it wrong"

 

 

 

[RogueWaves]

13 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

I work in Ypsilanti MI and it’s now starting to cake on surfaces. Full change over in effect. Glad I took my 4x4.

I drive a 2x1 and had zero issues today. This was like a late Oct storm in NMI.

[janetjanet998]

12 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

it's over here , not sure why ILX still has me under a winter storm warning thru tomorrow 

had about 10-12 inches in the city isolated spots up to 13 in the metro 

I suspect ILX will downgrade soon to a WAA for blowing snow and maybe another inch 

it stopped snowing here about 5 hours ago and may not snow again

Lots schools and other places closing again tomorrow partly because of the winter storm warning for up to 6 more inches

 

a complete joke 

it was evident 24 hours ago the 2nd system was trending south and I even mentioned if ILX would downgrade the 2nd half of the  almost 48 hour winter storm warning in the other thread

but to keep it going in the new zones this afternoon is just pathetic and will be a another example of "the weatherman always gets it wrong"

 

 

 

as I was typing

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
903 PM CST WED FEB 2 2022  
  
ILZ027>030-036-031115-  
/O.CAN.KILX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220204T0000Z/  
/O.NEW.KILX.WW.Y.0004.220203T0303Z-220204T0000Z/  
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-FULTON-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GALESBURG, TOULON, PEORIA, LACON,   
AND CANTON  
903 PM CST WED FEB 2 2022  
   
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY  
   
..WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED  
  
* WHAT...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW   
  ACCUMULATIONS UNDER ONE INCH.  
  
* WHERE...KNOX, STARK, PEORIA, MARSHALL AND FULTON COUNTIES.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY.  
  

[laferri2]

21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I hear lots of people's are clogging. That damn warm nose screwed us with ungodly low ratios. The heavy wet snow fell all day at quarter to half mile visibility and we struggled, now this evening it's stacking much faster. Glad we are fluffing up some tonight. 

I have a two stage EGO electric that is torquey as hell. I imagine it's going to chew through this stuff like butter, but if my snowblowing experience follows the pattern this storm has set the blower will probably burst into flames as soon as I turn it on. 

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, laferri2 said:

SSDD. Same snow, different day. I guess the lesson is, don't move to Metro Detroit if you want interesting weather. 

This is one of the big reasons why I moved where I did (plus living on a lake). 

[WeatherMonger]

23 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

it's over here , not sure why ILX still has me under a winter storm warning thru tomorrow 

had about 10-12 inches in the city isolated spots up to 13 in the metro 

I suspect ILX will downgrade soon to a WAA for blowing snow and maybe another inch 

it stopped snowing here about 5 hours ago and may not snow again

Lots schools and other places closing again tomorrow partly because of the winter storm warning for up to 6 more inches

 

a complete joke 

it was evident 24 hours ago the 2nd system was trending south and I even mentioned if ILX would downgrade the 2nd half of the  almost 48 hour winter storm warning in the other thread

but to keep it going in the new zones this afternoon is just pathetic and will be a another example of "the weatherman always gets it wrong"

 

 

 

They mentioned this in their PM AFD

 

"

For now, plan to
maintain the Winter Storm Warning north of the Illinois River
Valley due to these impacts and despite the bulk of the snow
having already occurred there. At some point, this warning may be
replaced with an advisory. Otherwise, the bulk of the Winter Storm
Warning remains on track."

 

They'd be damned if they do or damned if they don't.

 

Schools won't reopen in the morning on 3 hours notice, most had already closed for both days due to the Blizzard Warning talk yesterday. 

[WeatherMonger]

16 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

as I was typing

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL  
903 PM CST WED FEB 2 2022  
  
ILZ027>030-036-031115-  
/O.CAN.KILX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220204T0000Z/  
/O.NEW.KILX.WW.Y.0004.220203T0303Z-220204T0000Z/  
KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-FULTON-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GALESBURG, TOULON, PEORIA, LACON,   
AND CANTON  
903 PM CST WED FEB 2 2022  
   
..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY  
   
..WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED  
  
* WHAT...BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW   
  ACCUMULATIONS UNDER ONE INCH.  
  
* WHERE...KNOX, STARK, PEORIA, MARSHALL AND FULTON COUNTIES.  
  
* WHEN...UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY.  
  

Commented before I read this post, but schools will still remain closed I'm sure.

[michsnowfreak]

7 minutes ago, Lightning said:

This is one of the big reasons why I moved where I did (plus living on a lake). 

 The total snow from this system is definitely a disappointment, but the real lesson is don't get so caught up in kuchera snowmaps without looking at other factors (in this case warm nose).  Obviously the QPF was overdone in this case, but I have noticed that many of the times that we either over or under perform it is tied to ratios. I probably had more liquid in this snowfall than I had in last February's 11" powder snowfall.

[Lightning]

My forecast busted low.  I said 6-8" as I didn't trust the short term models.  Should finish around 10".  .  If the ratios would have been closer to Kuchera this would have easily been over 12".

Sadly the 2nd wave is to far south to impact MBY tomorrow.  Looking forward to the next event 

[janetjanet998]

8 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Commented before I read this post, but schools will still remain closed I'm sure.

On a related note 

Peoria City schools on remote learning today and tomorrow 

Kids can't even have a snow day when school is cancelled anymore thanks to the aftermath of COVID times

That would suck from their point of view

 

[Lightning]

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

 The total snow from this system is definitely a disappointment, but the real lesson is don't get so caught up in kuchera snowmaps without looking at other factors (in this case warm nose).  Obviously the QPF was overdone in this case, but I have noticed that many of the times that we either over or under perform it is tied to ratios. I probably had more liquid in this snowfall than I had in last February's 11" powder snowfall.

Yeah.  I actually think the short term models did good if we would have ignored those Kuchera maps.  I am going to stick to 10:1 ratios (except clippers).  Oh yeah last February's storm was complete fluff IMBY. 

[WeatherMonger]

1 minute ago, janetjanet998 said:

On a related note 

Peoria City schools on remote learning today and tomorrow 

Kids can't even have a snow day when it snows anymore thanks to the aftermath of COVID times

 

I agree, they can't even have a "school day" anymore, regardless of weather. 

 

 

[fluoronium]

I managed to squeeze out about 10" here. Ratios were a lot lower than models predicted (as was suggested by people here in the days leading up to the storm)

It wasn't the historic monster I had hoped, but it was still the biggest snow for me in 3 years so I can't complain. 

[WeatherMonger]

Guessing the rest of the night for snow goes like this.

 

Was hoping for some snow and drifting to get a day off tomorrow. Headed to bed faced with reality.

 

[SolidIcewx]

43 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 The total snow from this system is definitely a disappointment, but the real lesson is don't get so caught up in kuchera snowmaps without looking at other factors (in this case warm nose).  Obviously the QPF was overdone in this case, but I have noticed that many of the times that we either over or under perform it is tied to ratios. I probably had more liquid in this snowfall than I had in last February's 11" powder snowfall.

Definitely well spoken. I was eyeballing a foot but at least it’s gonna look pretty outside for awhile. But ready for severe storms eh?

[mississaugasnow]

11 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Definitely well spoken. I was eyeballing a foot but at least it’s gonna look pretty outside for awhile. But ready for severe storms eh?

One of the local mets on twitter I follow said winter forecasting is much tougher compared to summer for a public perception point of view. In a heat wave only us weenies here will say hit 88F not 90F while the average Joe just says damn its hot. Rain is also much tougher to gauge. Ive never heard a buddy say wow only quarter inch of rain when they called for half inch haha. 

Everyone knows though if you made the slightly wrong call in winter. 

[sbnwx85]

Ended with somewhere between 9 and 11 inches depending on where I measured. The parking lot in my complex hadn’t been plowed when I got home tonight. The car got into a spot but it’s going to be a battle to leave tomorrow.

[mempho]

On a related note 
Peoria City schools on remote learning today and tomorrow 
Kids can't even have a snow day when school is cancelled anymore thanks to the aftermath of COVID times
That would suck from their point of view
 

We had one of these days last year in Memphis with a foot of snow on the ground. A foot of snow on the level on Memphis, TN and the kids were in class.

My internet - thankfully- got jacked up and I took the kids sledding. When I returned home, I discovered that somehow the power supply had been disconnected from the modem.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk

[Dalfy]

Radar looks so juicy

[Jackstraw]

Just got back in from my first chance to play in some snow all season (main reason for my anxiety with this system lol).  Best guess 3-4 with some 18 inch drifts.  Snow stopped around 10 but was still blowing pretty good.  I expected about twice that out of part 1 which would've been roughly half of a basic model consensus at 10-1 ratios yesterday.  Never do, never will buy into gfs/Nam krazy kuchera 20 inches like they were spitting out but the euro was consistently showing 10 maybe 12 10-1 with part 1 for here.   Like has been mentioned, that damn front basically stopped for about 6 hours 25 miles  to my NW.  It was no speed demon but I thought it would be snowing by 1 or 2pm.

A little concerned about suppression with part 2.  Lets see how this next wave bounces around the TN valley.  If I can squeeze another 10 I'll be very happy lol.

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

 The total snow from this system is definitely a disappointment, but the real lesson is don't get so caught up in kuchera snowmaps without looking at other factors (in this case warm nose).  Obviously the QPF was overdone in this case, but I have noticed that many of the times that we either over or under perform it is tied to ratios. I probably had more liquid in this snowfall than I had in last February's 11" powder snowfall.

Call it "warm nose" or last minute bump N. DTX's write-up this past evening (2/2) plainly said, the good forcing with higher qpf ended up 2 to 3 counties N of where the models said it would be for the past "X" number of days. The models were blind to this sudden over-achieving bubble of warmth. This may be the biggest screwing of the pooch by models since Dec 2012's bliz when the Euro insisted the SLP would traverse south of The Mitt over to KTOL. Was just laser-locked on that solution (until the SLP ran right up into SWMI and on top of our heads). As for inflated Kuchera maps, WxBell's Euro product seems to be the biggest offender in that category, one time showing a 29" total here for the Metro. Ofc, that's highly suspect knowing the climo and Big Dog history so easy to discount that/those maps. But, GFS was routinely showing this region (W Wayne) around 19 or 20". While still a bit of a reach, it was at least more believable that after necessary adjustments, we'd have a shot at a legit 15+ Big Dog level storm. That's exactly what it looked like right up to and including the Watch issuance, and subsequent forecasted totals map showing 12-16". There's no way you can paint this as anything BUT an epic FAIL on the part of the guidance that everyone, including the NWS Mets rely on to "get it right". Ofc I'm disappointed, but deep down a part of me never really bought into this map, so it's not as painful as it would've been.

 

[michsnowfreak]

Got 6.0" here, the top drifted and fluffed up nicely to give it that "marshmallow" look but the bottom is unreal. You don't even hit ground when walking on it (and I'm a big guy). Definitely a solid snow base. Will be interesting to see how hard it gets as temp continues to drop. Low 20s now. 

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, Lightning said:

My forecast busted low.  I said 6-8" as I didn't trust the short term models.  Should finish around 10".  .  If the ratios would have been closer to Kuchera this would have easily been over 12".

Sadly the 2nd wave is to far south to impact MBY tomorrow.  Looking forward to the next event 

Congrats on an over-achiever storm up there! Drove thru on 23 Saturday and snow at that point may have been a bit less than down here. Hard to say as the freeway median is notoriously a poor example of surrounding areas.

 I'm recently relocated to the west burbs (Plymouth-Canton) but seriously considering moving up to Fenton when my lease is up this July. Not because this is "Shaft City" when it comes to snowstorms. I have a sister in Fenton and other fam up that way (Genesee and Saginaw counties). Plus, my sister's apt is like an expensive custom-built home for 2/3rds the rent I'm paying. I'd be back to a sizeable commute, but other than the occasional day like today, mostly it's not a bad one if I stay away from the 96/275/696 triangle of congestion. 

After many years with often large commute distances, I have/am enjoying having just an 8 mile drive to work. But it's hardly worth "the rent", especially for this drafty old place. Fenton's a nice little community similar to Marshall where we moved from. I like the upscale touristy downtown. It also has all the chain stuff out by US23 that we didn't have in little tiny Marshall so there's another bonus. 

[Jackstraw]

11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Got 6.0" here, the top drifted and fluffed up nicely to give it that "marshmallow" look but the bottom is unreal. You don't even hit ground when walking on it (and I'm a big guy). Definitely a solid snow base. Will be interesting to see how hard it gets as temp continues to drop. Low 20s now. 

Very similar here except that bottom layer is just water pooling over frozen ground from 12 hours of rain that flash froze in about 30 or 45 minutes.  I know from living in the sticks you drop some powder on "frictionless" ice it seems like the drifting power is doubled lol.