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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 3


Chicago Storm
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2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

Lansing usually does well with systems that track from the SW. Banding usually end up forming west of 75. East side cant get any good banding thus far. May still end up with 6 or so. Glad I decided to stay put down here. 85 n sunny today.

 

 

Same, I was 1 click off buying a last minute flight up to be part of the storm. Overall decided against it due to the typical MW crap and the long duration snow. Wasnt worth how exhausted I would have been. Still hope it works out well for everyone though!

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47 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

The northern part of the front is painstakingly creeping E/SE.  Ive flipped back and forth  from rain, pingers and snow 3 times in the last hour.

vtm_sf.gif?1643836072543

This has sooooooo many poeple back home antsy and ready to throw in the towel. The pretty consistent stream of moisture back through IND and into the OH Valley + slow but steady SE movement + rapidly approaching sunset says otherwise though. Definitely will keep the 20-30" totals away but this whole corridor is still set for a good 8-12"/10-15" type storm imo. 

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8 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

18Z GFS hittin' the glass pipe again?  Still has 15 here when all is said and done and I can still see grass right now.  Ill take it lol

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Okay, but weird thing is while this is a weenie map, it's also the second model indicating a southeast shift in the snowfall totals. Please, please, PLEASE keep coming southeast.

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RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
0450 PM EST WED FEB 02 2022

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT SOUTH BEND...

A RECORD SNOWFALL OF 8.2 INCHES WAS SET AT SOUTH BEND TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 8.0 INCHES SET IN 1908. THIS WILL BE 
UPDATED AT THE END OF THE DAY WITH THE FINAL SNOWFALL TOTAL FOR THE 
DAY.
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3 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

Think we finally flipped to SN for the foreseeable future hopefully.  Waiting on that transition hurt as bad as stubbing your toe after getting up for a 3am pisser.:tomato:

I’ve already started smoking a cigar in anticipation of the changeover here. When that happens, then it’s time for drinks. 

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Snow finally tapered off here in west Humboldt Park, Chicago. Storm total of 7.75” here near North/Kimball at 3:50pm. Top layer is light enough for some blowing/drifting, but the bottom inch or so is concrete. Not the most fun to shovel, but should be good to build a snowman later with my housemates!

4E483628-69EB-452A-AFF3-ED0B43A02D8D.jpeg

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5 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

RAP and HRRR were showing some big totals in my area last night also.  You would be safe if you halved that and be pleasantly surprised if it comes in higher.

That's why right now, I'm still feeling like...so HRRR has 9 inches and this has 12. A 4-6 call seems safe especially since it's been pouring down rain all day. And honestly snow melt is going to make it difficult to get an accurate measurement. Even if we get 8 inches, it might look like much less if it doesn't stick quickly.

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Latest from IND:

.Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 543 PM EST Wed Feb 2 2022

Baroclinic zone continues to drift south this evening, currently
stretching from near Terre Haute northeast through Indy Metro to
Muncie, where temperatures continue to fall with the robust
northerly flow ushering in sinking cold air to the surface. The area
of 850mb frontogenetical forcing continues to be parked across
Northeast Missouri stretching northeast through Illinois into
Indiana. Last few hours this zone of FGEN hasnt moved much, and
current hi-res guidance continues to favor this stubborn movement
through this evening.

Precipitation footprint continues to be expansive across Central
Indiana, associated with the aforementioned FGEN zone is an area of
800-750 EPV lifting north along southern periphery, which will ride
along the isentropic surfaces and continue to create the unstable
layer. This should continue the precipitation footprint overnight,
but with thermal profiles steadily cooling expect the partially
melted hydrometeors stretched over the Avon/Brownsburg to switch
over to all dendritic form. Parcels will continue to be pushed
vertically through the dendritic growth zone and enhance the
snowfall rates through the evening hours from north to south.

This further complicates the evening commute home, likely causing a
longer commute for those that are encountering the sleet/snow
mixture. WIth the elevated instability causing the increased rates,
this should lead to some aggregation of dendrites from some marginal
warmth and further reduce visibilities. But expect with additional
loss of heat in the low-levels of atmosphere this will lead to drier
dendrites and thus begin to increase the SLR values.
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33 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

ORD finished with a storm total of 5.6"

Shall see what LE adds over the next day or so.

That means ORD is up to 21.6" on the season.  Average to date is 21.8", so basically there.  And lake effect should push them above average tomorrow, at least for a little while.

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