Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 0z RAP also is NW across Chi metro through 12z tomorrow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Thundersnow12 said: 0z RAP also is NW across Chi metro through 12z tomorrow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Someone show the maximum snowfall amount at the end of the HRRR for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Total 00z HRRR snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Hopefully LOT is awake and adds another tier of counties to the warning. Writing is on the wall now with this steady trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Kaner88 said: Total 00z HRRR snows. Is that 27 the home of ALEK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: Is that 27 the home of ALEK Prime jeb walking conditions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: Total 00z HRRR snows. 19.6 in to 1.8 in 30 miles!?!?! Come on slight NW shift (no wammies, no wammies...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kaner88 said: Total 00z HRRR snows. 27 inches IMBY I'm ready to be buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 The HRRR LES is unrealistic. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 any commentary on radar trends as it relates to some of these short term models and optimism for heavier snowfall further NW into LOT zones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Baum said: any commentary on radar trends as it relates to some of these short term models and optimism for heavier snowfall further NW into LOT zones? Things are still blossoming in MO. So likely will have a handle on that within the next few hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 If the RAP pulls a fast one, man oh man 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Things are still blossoming in MO. So likely will have a handle on that within the next few hours. Any new thoughts on wave 2 it came north on the 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Any new thoughts on wave 2 it came north on the 18z? I think it's pretty cool! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Any new thoughts on wave 2 it came north on the 18z? Likely will mostly miss south of here, unless there's some drastic changes. Along/south of I-80 in the LOT CWA still has some potential, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Curious as to why some have said not to use Kuchera maps for totals? I'm not looking for a reason to inflate totals IMBY by any means, but when the snow starts here it will be 5, 6 or 7:1, for several hours and may even jump back down to those until temps really drop. Isn't there inflation in that using 10:1? I always thought Kuchera used lesser and better ratios for a more realistic number. I watched the beginnings of the 0Z HRRR rum comparing between the two and 10:1 was better than using Kuchera. I understand both maps are grain of salt and manual reviews needed(I'm not that smart ), but when I went through a GFS run using Bufkit output there were weird fluctuations in ratios throughout it as well. Been using the 10:1 maps when looking at totals, but they seem somewhat inflated at the beginning and somewhat low towards the end. Is that average start and finish enough to use that over Kuchera? Sorry for the long post during a model run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 hours ago, frostfern said: I don't know how many people who post are old enough to remember 1978. I always see these pictures of what looks like three feet of snow and drifts up to the roofs of cars but it seems misleading. My folks don't remember the details, but they seem to imply that there was a already a decent amount of snow on the ground before the storm. It would be like if you combined the constant clipper trains of Jan/Feb 2014 with GHD 1. GHD 1 happened after a cold and dry January with otherwise below normal snowfall. I imagine if there was already quite a bit of snow on the ground that was still powdery enough to blow and added whatever 12-18" fell in that particular storm you'd get those kind of drifts you see in pictures that give the illusion it snowed 6 feet. People you talk to still seem to think it snowed 2 feet in that storm when in reality it didn't. It never has snowed 2 feet in 24 hours. GR daily data: Looks like there indeed was a solid 8" base on the morning of the 25th as the storm was setting in. Then you add your fresh storm snowfall of about 19" and suddenly you have a 27" depth giving the general public the same feel that a 27" storm from scratch would have given. With all the massive drifting, it's not hard to see why Joe Public equated it with a 2 foot storm. While GR had temps remain below freezing, there were a lot of places S and E of there that actually had melting conditions leading up to the bliz, so their snow was just a crust to get flash frozen, it wasn't contributing to blowing and drifting. Such was the case in Genesee county where I was at the time. OH ofc had rain and 40's so all those huge drifts you see in photos came via the storm itself. Oh, and the 24 hr snowfall record for Michigan is 32" btw. Much more than 24". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 OOZ is seems to throw back more precip a little more NW with 2nd wave although the overall system may even be a hair SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 LOT updates WWA & WSW text at 8:00pm. Extended WWA north into Lake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 35 minutes ago, snowman33 said: Absolute hose! Is there a thunder indicator in that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 NAM looks to be a bit further NW with the 2nd wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: OOZ is seems to throw back more precip a little more NW with 2nd wave although the overall system may even be a hair SE Precip is def further north into mich on the 0z nam. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: Precip is def further north into mich on the 0z nam. woot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: GR daily data: Looks like there indeed was a solid 8" base on the morning of the 25th as the storm was setting in. Then you add your fresh storm snowfall of about 19" and suddenly you have a 27" depth giving the general public the same feel that a 27" storm from scratch would have given. With all the massive drifting, it's not hard to see why Joe Public equated it with a 2 foot storm. While GR had temps remain below freezing, there were a lot of places S and E of there that actually had melting conditions leading up to the bliz, so their snow was just a crust to get flash frozen, it wasn't contributing to blowing and drifting. Such was the case in Genesee county where I was at the time. OH ofc had rain and 40's so all those huge drifts you see in photos came via the storm itself. Oh, and the 24 hr snowfall record for Michigan is 32" btw. Much more than 24". I think the 8" on the ground was still fairly fresh. There was no intermediate thaw. It makes sense the drifts were huge with 27 inches of powder being blown around by blizzard force winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 hours ago, Harry said: Total for Jan 67 was 28.6. storm total not daily total which I posted. 21.1 on Jan 26 and 7.5 on Jan 27. Qpf total was amazing with 2.86! Rare beast for this part of the world. Straight 10-1 ratios.. Keep in mind probably have had many of storms that say started at noon and finished noon the next day. And I believe there was a report of 30" a bit to the NW of BC. Out towards Richland? If true, isn't that crazy that depth was hit with 10:1 ratio and not some fluffed-up high ratio storm? Like you said, it's East Coast stuff, not MW stuff what happened in '67. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 hours ago, mississaugasnow said: Its more 5-8" on the ground here so after the warmth and rain I expect 2-5" left which will turn into a glacier still only 35F here We probably won't have much left ahead of the storm if it stays mild like this all night, but it really is a moot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Been raining good. I'd have to think on it but can't recall this amount of rain right before as big of a snowstorm as this looks to be. Usually it's more drizzly/light if it occurs. Blizzard of Nov '89 (The Mitt Special) it rained all day on the 15th, well into the night before switching over maybe 10-11 pm. Only 12" fell after change-over where I was in NEMI, but some areas saw 2 feet with the aid of lake enhancement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 00z NAM brought the second system just far enough north to give me a couple extra inches. 3K NAM was a complete miss to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Thundersnow12 said: Yeah hopefully that bozo who works for ISC can finally up amounts on their snowfall map MSPaint is hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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