Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Going it old school. Surprised u didn't do an observation thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I prefer 300 pages of whining, ICON runs and backyard predictions. Not sure what this 34 page/thread crap is all about 4 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said: Going it old school. Surprised u didn't do an observation thread everything has always gone in one around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 First time I’ve personally witnessed plumes this high clustered between 12-25” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Better luck this time around on a last minute nw trend with the main energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Going back to the previous thread there was a discussion on 12" storms. Here is GRR's numbers on that from their afternoon AFD. One other point I want to make is, looking at our climate data for frequencies of a foot or more of snow at Kalamazoo, Battle Creek and Jackson, getting a foot or more from midnight to midnight is a rare event. At Jackson, since 1944, there have been only 3 such events, 16 inches in March 1973 being the greatest, and 14 inches in in late January 1978 (blizzard of 78 fame) and early January in 1999. For Kalamazoo, the record as 18 inches in the blizzard of 1978, then there was 16 inches in December 1907, and 13 inches in mid January of 1979. Our grid point snow total is 12.5 inches for Jackson, 11.7 for Kalamazoo and 12.3 for Battle Creek. If this actually happens it would be a top 4 event for all 3 of these sites. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Someone needs to dig up the baro post in @Thundersnow12's sig for nostalgic purposes, since I'm pretty sure it was about now 11 years ago that things started to go to hell in a hand basket around these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18z rgem def namish, may actually be more nw with the main wave. 15" metro detroit kuchera. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: Someone needs to dig up the baro post in @Thundersnow12's sig for nostalgic purposes, since I'm pretty sure it was about now 11 years ago that things started to go to hell in a hand basket around these parts. I still remember reading that exact post when he posted it that night. Great memories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 @michsnowfreak It's definitely a solid storm for sure. But it's not the worth the travel expense for me. I was mainly in it for the historical possibility. Intuitively, I knew it was a long shot, but the fact that the GFS was pretty consistent for a while had me intrigued. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Come on guys....we need more models posted, I'm dying here. Need MORE info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 FWIW, 18z 3km nam was an improvement as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: Going back to the previous thread there was a discussion on 12" storms. Here is GRR's numbers on that from their afternoon AFD. One other point I want to make is, looking at our climate data for frequencies of a foot or more of snow at Kalamazoo, Battle Creek and Jackson, getting a foot or more from midnight to midnight is a rare event. At Jackson, since 1944, there have been only 3 such events, 16 inches in March 1973 being the greatest, and 14 inches in in late January 1978 (blizzard of 78 fame) and early January in 1999. For Kalamazoo, the record as 18 inches in the blizzard of 1978, then there was 16 inches in December 1907, and 13 inches in mid January of 1979. Our grid point snow total is 12.5 inches for Jackson, 11.7 for Kalamazoo and 12.3 for Battle Creek. If this actually happens it would be a top 4 event for all 3 of these sites. Yeah he forgot to add in Battle Creek. The two I know of are Jan 67 with 21.1 and Jan 78 with 18.0 and both are Jan 26th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The force is strong with all you north of me people. Doing my best to hold it in place 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Haven't done an extremely detailed comparison but the current placement of the rain band seems to be on the northern end of guidance at the very least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: I still remember reading that exact post when he posted it that night. Great memories Here they are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jonger said: Come on guys....we need more models posted, I'm dying here. Need MORE info. enjoy 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 If we are ballin' like its 2011... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Haven't done an extremely detailed comparison but the current placement of the rain band seems to be on the northern end of guidance at the very least. HRRR is banging the north drum hard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wegoweather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Battle for which is messier, the storm or creating 3 threads for the storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, wegoweather said: Battle for which is messier, the storm or creating 3 threads for the storm. you'll survive either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Looks like LOT has around 18" max in the forecast for parts of the cwa. But we want at least 20, don't we? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: HRRR is banging the north drum hard. love that. Bang that north drum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: If we are ballin' like its 2011... The old OG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Looks like LOT has around 18" max in the forecast for parts of the cwa. But we want at least 20, don't we? Actually, the 18" max is only through Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Lots of moisture out there already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 34 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: Going back to the previous thread there was a discussion on 12" storms. Here is GRR's numbers on that from their afternoon AFD. One other point I want to make is, looking at our climate data for frequencies of a foot or more of snow at Kalamazoo, Battle Creek and Jackson, getting a foot or more from midnight to midnight is a rare event. At Jackson, since 1944, there have been only 3 such events, 16 inches in March 1973 being the greatest, and 14 inches in in late January 1978 (blizzard of 78 fame) and early January in 1999. For Kalamazoo, the record as 18 inches in the blizzard of 1978, then there was 16 inches in December 1907, and 13 inches in mid January of 1979. Our grid point snow total is 12.5 inches for Jackson, 11.7 for Kalamazoo and 12.3 for Battle Creek. If this actually happens it would be a top 4 event for all 3 of these sites. Midnight to midnight is a weirdly arbitrary figure though. I'd just like to see the number of times an accumulation over 12" happens in any 24 hour period. GHD 1 was the last event I can recall that pulled that off in GRR. It gets rare as soon as you get east of the major NW flow lake effect belts. Biggest totals here are mostly synoptic / lake-effect combos that occur over a 48-72 hour period. It's just not the same as when it comes down heavy all at once. GHD 1 was special because the bulk of it came down in under 12 hours with a lot of wind to push it around. Closest thing I've seen to something you would see on the east coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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