February 2022 General Discussion

[madwx]

24 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Good catch, was -39 on the hourlies but hit -40 intrahour.

Out of curiosity...why?  Everyone here is jumping on the bandwagon for winter to end, when we haven't even had winter to begin with.  We're all supposed to be kindred spirits on this forum, not like Joe Q. Public who hates winter.  It used to be that way - but not anymore.

Seems like everyone here all of a sudden likes warm and comfortable weather, and doesn't like the cold. If it were constantly below zero, fine...but it hasn't been all that cold in an absolute sense. Let's all just live in FL, AZ, or HI and call it a day...

Not directed at you personally...but it just gets old. Tired of coming on to a winter weather forum and seeing posts hoping against winter weather.

I'm ecstatic about the cold in MN, but am furious that we can't get it down here for any prolonged period of time. It isn't even that cold of an airmass...but amazing what can happen when winter takes hold of an area...with deep snowpack and calm winds.  You know, winter conditions in DJF - go figure. Kind of like summer conditions in JJA - which always happens with no worries.

The nights aren't even that short anymore up there, and it still hits -40. But everyone else wants the cold to go away, when we can't buy a frigid advective and/or calm morning here with deep snow cover if our life depended on it.  It sucks. The last one was Jan 2019 - more than 3 years ago...but then it was 40F 2 days later...which ruined it. 

And on top of that, everyone here is obsessed with removing the snow and ice as quickly as possible - to just erase it from the earth. Traffic, on the go, never-ending drift away from nature, blah blah. And we don't really get radiational cooling here anymore - too much urban development...and I'm like 25 miles NW of the Chicago core. It's even worse closer in.

This is very personal for me...as I gave up forecasting after getting a met degree, because I realized that I don't care about getting a forecast right.  I only care about the outcome, especially in winter. I don't go around hoping for cold weather in August, pissing on everyone's summer fetish cheerios.

If we actually had a winter here, I'd be more willing for it to end, especially as we get into mid-March. But when we don't have winter, there's a desire to make up for it later in the season....and then we never catch up and the season slips away...again and again and again.

Everyone can just put me on ignore - who gives a fook anymore.

Mate, I like winter, I like snow, I like it to get cold.   The whole month of January was -5.0 here and over 1/3 of the month had highs in the teens and single digits.   In February we've had 5 days with highs in the teens and 6 more days below 25.   We've had our share of cold and this winter has run it's course.   It'll still snow in March and April and it will still get cold, but we don't need highs below 25 and lows below 10 after March 1st.   That does nothing to make the outdoors more enjoyable.

 

I get winter has sucked in this area in terms of snow but that's how it goes, we've had a great stretch of 15 years before this and we are due for some clunkers.   That and AGW are just going to ensure that winters like this happen on a semi regular basis.

[Brian D]

4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Low temps in MN this morning...I'm sure these are close to all-time record lows for so late in the season:

International Falls -40F (old record -31F in 1917); 25" snow depth

Ely -38F

Cook -38F

Orr -36F

Bigfork -36F

Hibbing -35F (old record -33F in 1965)

Bemidji -34F

Duluth -13F; 22" snow depth

 

Very cold up here last night. That was the latest -40 reading record for I-Falls. Feb 20 had -44 for the latest -40 record before this morning. One more very bitter morning before more pleasant weather, yet still cold, starts this weekend. -20's is the forecast, but with very calm conditions slated for the a.m., probably will get a little colder, again, than the forecast. -30 was the forecast for this morning around those areas, and you can see how much colder it got.

[beavis1729]

26 minutes ago, Brian D said:

Very cold up here last night. That was the latest -40 reading record for I-Falls. Feb 20 had -44 for the latest -40 record before this morning. One more very bitter morning before more pleasant weather, yet still cold, starts this weekend. -20's is the forecast, but with very calm conditions slated for the a.m., probably will get a little colder, again, than the forecast. -30 was the forecast for this morning around those areas, and you can see how much colder it got.

Wow, very impressive.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Only dropped down to -3 here last night with the high clouds. Much colder outside the urban core.

[Brian D]

-30's again away from the Lake with near record/record lows set yet again. Jan-Feb this year has seen some really cold morning lows away from the Lake with many being near record/record stuff. A healthy snowpack with strong high pressure allowing for calm morning conditions really does the trick.

[beavis1729]

3 hours ago, Brian D said:

-30's again away from the Lake with near record/record lows set yet again. Jan-Feb this year has seen some really cold morning lows away from the Lake with many being near record/record stuff. A healthy snowpack with strong high pressure allowing for calm morning conditions really does the trick.

Yeah...and INL dropped to -40 again...breaking yesterday's record for the coldest temp so late in the season.

Reminds me of the early Feb 1996 arctic outbreak, where the nights in northern MN were brutally cold but it warmed up quite a bit during the day.  An even deeper snowpack back then (generally 30-40"), plus not as late in the season, plus the airmasses themselves were a bit colder.  Some areas saw several nights of lows in the -40s to -50s.

[hawkeye_wx]

Our temp has only been in the mid 20s this afternoon, but the very dry and fluffy 3" of snow is getting zapped pretty quickly by the bright sunshine.  Grass is already showing in spots.  30s and sun this weekend will take care of most of the rest.

[Snownado]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah...and INL dropped to -40 again...breaking yesterday's record for the coldest temp so late in the season.

Reminds me of the early Feb 1996 arctic outbreak, where the nights in northern MN were brutally cold but it warmed up quite a bit during the day.  An even deeper snowpack back then (generally 30-40"), plus not as late in the season, plus the airmasses themselves were a bit colder.  Some areas saw several nights of lows in the -40s to -50s.

A low of -40 and high of 15 is impressive. 55 degree increase from morning to afternoon. 

[sbnwx85]

A real nice month.

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Snownado said:

A low of -40 and high of 15 is impressive. 55 degree increase from morning to afternoon. 

Also impressive to have a 55 degree swing with the high temp still ending up significantly below the average high.  Shows how ridiculously cold that the low was.

[Hoosier]

After the extremely sluggish start, ORD is one really good storm away from ensuring an average snowfall season.  A series of smaller ones would do it too of course.

[Spartman]

Overcast every single day since Tuesday. Cloudiest stretch of the season.

[bowtie`]

3 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

A real nice month.

That station is calling it already? Oh wow, I did not notice only three days left in the month. Come on March!

[cyclone77]

Last night's 2.2" of snow made for the 3rd highest snow event of the season, and brought us up to an even 16" for the season.  DVN/MLI are at 17.7/17.5 for the season.  They're both a bit ahead of here because they benefited a bit more from that straight south moving/weird clipper earlier in the season.

 

[michsnowfreak]

On 2/24/2022 at 10:23 AM, beavis1729 said:

Good catch, was -39 on the hourlies but hit -40 intrahour.

Out of curiosity...why?  Everyone here is jumping on the bandwagon for winter to end, when we haven't even had winter to begin with.  We're all supposed to be kindred spirits on this forum, not like Joe Q. Public who hates winter.  It used to be that way - but not anymore.

Seems like everyone here all of a sudden likes warm and comfortable weather, and doesn't like the cold. If it were constantly below zero, fine...but it hasn't been all that cold in an absolute sense. Let's all just live in FL, AZ, or HI and call it a day...

Not directed at you personally...but it just gets old. Tired of coming on to a winter weather forum and seeing posts hoping against winter weather.

I'm ecstatic about the cold in MN, but am furious that we can't get it down here for any prolonged period of time. It isn't even that cold of an airmass...but amazing what can happen when winter takes hold of an area...with deep snowpack and calm winds.  You know, winter conditions in DJF - go figure. Kind of like summer conditions in JJA - which always happens with no worries.

The nights aren't even that short anymore up there, and it still hits -40. But everyone else wants the cold to go away, when we can't buy a frigid advective and/or calm morning here with deep snow cover if our life depended on it.  It sucks. The last one was Jan 2019 - more than 3 years ago...but then it was 40F 2 days later...which ruined it. 

And on top of that, everyone here is obsessed with removing the snow and ice as quickly as possible - to just erase it from the earth. Traffic, on the go, never-ending drift away from nature, blah blah. And we don't really get radiational cooling here anymore - too much urban development...and I'm like 25 miles NW of the Chicago core. It's even worse closer in.

This is very personal for me...as I gave up forecasting after getting a met degree, because I realized that I don't care about getting a forecast right.  I only care about the outcome, especially in winter. I don't go around hoping for cold weather in August, pissing on everyone's summer fetish cheerios.

If we actually had a winter here, I'd be more willing for it to end, especially as we get into mid-March. But when we don't have winter, there's a desire to make up for it later in the season....and then we never catch up and the season slips away...again and again and again.

Everyone can just put me on ignore - who gives a fook anymore.

I'm never ready for Winter to end, however, I don't really think this is anything new. The forum has always been that way with many people getting the spring itch around this time. To be fair, they also start to speculate what the coming Winter will bring as early as September.  Just how it's always been. I certainly don't think that means nobody here likes Winter lol. That is simply not the case.  Every snow event is met with excited chatter and if snow does not pan out as expected there is a ton of frustration.

 

But "we haven't even had Winter to begin with"? Come on beavis.  No, temperatures have not not plunged to 50 below 0 in places where it never should get close to that. However, the past 2 months have absolutely been Winter in the southern Great Lakes.  The frost depth is deep and snow has covered the ground a huge majority of the time.  Outside of extremely small areas, the combination of the type of cold and snow you want is extremely rare on earth.  In fact, had the past few months been milder, Chicago would have probably seen more snow.

[Brian D]

On 2/25/2022 at 2:43 PM, beavis1729 said:

Yeah...and INL dropped to -40 again...breaking yesterday's record for the coldest temp so late in the season.

Reminds me of the early Feb 1996 arctic outbreak, where the nights in northern MN were brutally cold but it warmed up quite a bit during the day.  An even deeper snowpack back then (generally 30-40"), plus not as late in the season, plus the airmasses themselves were a bit colder.  Some areas saw several nights of lows in the -40s to -50s.

This was the heart of the cold in I-Falls back in 1996. State record of -60 was recorded in Tower, MN during this time, Feb 2 I believe. Actually, not much rebounding with highs in the -10's & -20's. I worked in a sawmill here in town back then. We had to shut down because the heaters in the mill couldn't keep up, and the hydraulic systems turned to jelly. Rural coop sites at that time were recording -50's for lows with similar highs.

1996-01-30   -12    -32    
1996-01-31    -12    -35    
1996-02-01   -25    -43    
1996-02-02   -22    -45    
1996-02-03   -10    -30

EDIT: Here's Tower 2S records for that time. Better rebounding there in the highs.

1996-01-30    0    -35    
1996-01-31    -7    -55    
1996-02-01   -6    -58    
1996-02-02  -16    -60    
1996-02-03  -19    M    
1996-02-04   -4    -46    
1996-02-05    0    M

[beavis1729]

^ Those are incredible stats. Wisconsin also set its all time record low back then…I believe it was -55 in Couderay. 

[Hoosier]

Was thinking about beavis' comment about summer wx being more reliable in JJA in contrast to winter wx not being as reliable around Chicago.  I think there's some merit to that.  Think about it.  Summer months and months that are adjacent to summer have a tighter range of temperature anomalies than what can occur in winter.  It simply cannot get as far above or below average in summer.  Around Chicago, a few degrees below average in summer still feels reasonably summer-like, but a few degrees above average in winter means you are probably going to start melting any snowcover that you have, and it has been a struggle to build up any decent snowcover this winter especially north/west of the city. 

Chicago is better than a lot of other places for wintry wx, but it's still kind of living on the margins with not a whole lot of room for error.

[madwx]

snowpack held us in the lower 30s today but still plenty of melting in the full sunshine.   finally was able to get most of the ice off my driveway from the ice storm on Tuesday

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Was thinking about beavis' comment about summer wx being more reliable in JJA in contrast to winter wx not being as reliable around Chicago.  I think there's some merit to that.  Think about it.  Summer months and months that are adjacent to summer have a tighter range of temperature anomalies than what can occur in winter.  It simply cannot get as far above or below average in summer.  Around Chicago, a few degrees below average in summer still feels reasonably summer-like, but a few degrees above average in winter means you are probably going to start melting any snowcover that you have, and it has been a struggle to build up any decent snowcover this winter especially north/west of the city. 

Chicago is better than a lot of other places for wintry wx, but it's still kind of living on the margins with not a whole lot of room for error.

Yeah - that's a good summary, imo.

It's getting at the idea that you can’t really have a meaningful winter season (landscape, frozen ponds, reliable snow cover, etc.) without cold. Actual liquid precip averages during the cold season really don’t matter that much in the end. Of course, more precip is better, all else being equal...but cold is the key.
 

The concept is “sacred” winter days. In other words, if you were dropped into a town on a specific calendar date (say Feb 5th), would you be able to count on the fact that it would look and feel like winter? There could be many definitions of this...but in my mind, it means a 90% chance of a high temp of 35F or lower AND 2”+ snow cover on a specific date. No anxiety about the weather pattern being a certain way, etc.; you just know it will be wintry outside, in line with what it’s supposed to be because the calendar says it’s winter.
 

Sure, you could have an anomalous pattern every so often (like March 2012)…which is why I am only using a 90% threshold instead of 100%.

Using this definition, nearly all non-mountainous locations in the lower 48 south of 44N have zero sacred winter calendar dates. There is a huge gradient of this metric across the upper Midwest…because far northern MN probably has close to 100 sacred winter calendar dates…whereas southern WI has zero. This is a great illustration of why I get so frustrated in winter here - because the gradient is so extreme, as the crow flies. So close, yet so far. But in some ways, the gradient is also good news - because hopefully those of us who want more sacred winter dates can move only a bit further north to get it.  That's my plan when I hopefully retire from day-to-day work in the next 5 years.
 

Looking at sacred winter days in Chicago as an example - the coldest calendar dates in the year (mid-Jan) only have a 65% chance of a high temp 35F or colder. Adding the 2” snow cover condition reduces the % even more. So, it falls well short of the 90% threshold. And in early Feb, temps start warming up, even as there’s a somewhat higher chance of 2” snow cover…but then we just run out of time as the winter season fades away later in February. 
 

This all reminds me of Jonger's post from several years ago, showing a loop of snow cover during several winters in a row...where it sort of "pulses" down to 40N, then back up to 45N, then back down to 40N, maybe 38N occasionally.  But MBY (42.2N) is always on the edge, when you view a quick time-lapse of seasonal snowcover. The big exception is 1978-79...a 1-in-100+ year event where MBY had snow cover on 110 consecutive days, and Chicago had snowcover for 100 consecutive days.

Like you said, it's seasons in seasons - we can always count on essentially every calendar date in July and August (at a minimum) to be summerlike, but we can’t count on any specific calendar dates in winter to be winter-like. I actually like all seasons - I just want them to be equal in length.  90 days of sacred summer, and 90 days of sacred winter.  And having highs in the 20s - 40s most days, with occasional snow cover, isn’t winter. Of course, everything is personal preference in the end.

You basically need average high temps in Jan to be 20-25F (and Dec & Feb with averages no warmer than 25-30F) in order to have a true wintry climate with consistent snow cover, in order to have a decent # of sacred winter calendar dates. That way, when you do get the occasional mild pattern, you don't torch (meaning no days over 40F). Unfortunately, Chicago's winter average temps are about 10 degrees too warm for that. 

Not saying there needs to be 4 feet of snow on the ground...but a reliable 5-10+" would be nice during most of DJF.  A White Christmas is key - but at ORD, I think it's only about a 40% probability.

 

[michsnowfreak]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Was thinking about beavis' comment about summer wx being more reliable in JJA in contrast to winter wx not being as reliable around Chicago.  I think there's some merit to that.  Think about it.  Summer months and months that are adjacent to summer have a tighter range of temperature anomalies than what can occur in winter.  It simply cannot get as far above or below average in summer.  Around Chicago, a few degrees below average in summer still feels reasonably summer-like, but a few degrees above average in winter means you are probably going to start melting any snowcover that you have, and it has been a struggle to build up any decent snowcover this winter especially north/west of the city. 

Chicago is better than a lot of other places for wintry wx, but it's still kind of living on the margins with not a whole lot of room for error.

I have to continue to play the devil's advocate. And as a reminder, I much prefer Winter over summer. This Winter has not been great but it has certainly not been a crap Winter either. Ice on the lakes has been quite thick as this is the coldest January/February combo we've had since 2015. I counted my "beavis" Winter days of snow depth of 2"+ and a high of 35 or colder and I got 31 days.  I've also had many additional days with snow on the ground either less than 2" or 2"+ but the high was 35+, and several additional days with the high below 35 but less than 2" of snow on the ground.  When you take away the stats, I've seen people ice fishing frequently and there has been snow on the ground most of the time. In fact, one time I was sledding with my cousins and a facebook friend of mine who lives in Oklahoma said her friends just can't fathom what it's like to play in the snow for weeks when it has not just freshly fallen. And how she misses Michigan winters.

 

So here's my question. What do we give the summer folks for their metrics?  Because let me tell you, I have many friends/family who annoyingly can't wait to vacation south to get out of our cold weather by late winter and our summers are just not hot enough for them outside of heatwaves.  I mean, our summers are plenty hot for me, but I'm talking about the average Joe. You can't give Winter these specific metrics and then just say "oh it's warm in summer".  Chicago averages the same amount of days per year (45) with the high at or below 32 and a high at or above above 84.  Many summer folks love to consider 90 as their magical threshold. They can easily say, "how unfair, we get 45 days a year with a high below freezing but we can only get 16 days a year with a high above 90".  Chicago averages the same amount of days per year with the high at or below 22ﾟ as they do with the high at or above 90ﾟ.  If you take the absolute dead of Winter or dead of summer, Chicago has an ever so slightly greater chance of having a high at or below 79ﾟ on July 26th as they do having having a high at or above 40ﾟ on January 26th. 

 

If a day with a high in the teens and below zero wind chills but only 1" of snow on the ground is not winter, then i guess an overcast summer day isnt summer, even if humid. Or a "comfortable" day with low humidity, even if its in the 80s, is not summer. It's all relative....if you legit want 4 seasons the area this sub covers is primo.

[michsnowfreak]

As another snowy February comes to a close, the sun angle is rearing it's ugly head as snow just gets zapped in the sun. Met winter stats to come after tmrw.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

As another snowy February comes to a close, the sun angle is rearing it's ugly head as snow just gets zapped in the sun. Met winter stats to come after tmrw.

You can literally draw a straight line of snowcover/no snowcover in my backyard based on which area gets sun.  Always funny.

[michsnowfreak]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You can literally draw a straight line of snowcover/no snowcover in my backyard based on which area gets sun.  Always funny.

It is. Also, it's crazy to see the difference between the beginning of February and the end of February when it comes to that. I roll my eyes when it's early February and someone comments how their air fluff snow melted in the sun (undoubtedly with plenty of salt nearby) but it's legit at the end of February. That's why unless you have a deep glacier in place ala 2014 or 2015, snow cover season longevity has come to a close and now it's all about getting the storms. A storm with good rates always can overcome the sun angle in March and April.

[madwx]

major overperformance in temps for a second day in a row,  closing in on 50 here after tagging 42 yesterday.   The HRRR was the only model to sniff this out,  as always the NAMs do horrible with temps coming out of winter and into spring.

[Hoosier]

49 minutes ago, madwx said:

major overperformance in temps for a second day in a row,  closing in on 50 here after tagging 42 yesterday.   The HRRR was the only model to sniff this out,  as always the NAMs do horrible with temps coming out of winter and into spring.

The HRRR will almost never miss days like this.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, madwx said:

major overperformance in temps for a second day in a row,  closing in on 50 here after tagging 42 yesterday.   The HRRR was the only model to sniff this out,  as always the NAMs do horrible with temps coming out of winter and into spring.

RIP snow cover, we hardly knew ye.

[weatherbo]

High of 24 here today with a little over 2 inches of snow.  Off and on light snow chances and well below freezing temps for the rest of the week.

After the 40 inches of snow last week, a more tranquil pattern has been welcome.  Spent the past few days moving snow.  I did end up taking a good deal of snow off the roof.  Heading into March, systems can become much wetter and I was concerned about the potential for a cold rain or heavy/wet snow event that the roof snow would just soak up rather than shed.  On average there is still another 50 inches of snow here... better safe. 

[Snownado]

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

High of 24 here today with a little over 2 inches of snow.  Off and on light snow chances and well below freezing temps for the rest of the week.

After the 40 inches of snow last week, a more tranquil pattern has been welcome.  Spent the past few days moving snow.  I did end up taking a good deal of snow off the roof.  Heading into March, systems can become much wetter and I was concerned about the potential for a cold rain or heavy/wet snow event that the roof snow would just soak up rather than shed.  On average there is still another 50 inches of snow here... better safe. 

That's crazy that you have another 50" left to go on average. Marquette only has another 22" left on average. How far from Marquette are you ?

[weatherbo]

48 minutes ago, Snownado said:

That's crazy that you have another 50" left to go on average. Marquette only has another 22" left on average. How far from Marquette are you ?

MQT(Negaunee) averages 29.4 in March and 17.6 in April, not sure where the 22 inches is from.  

I'm roughly a half hour nw of Marquette the city.