Feburary 2nd-4th Winter Storm Thread

[John1122]

It's becoming more and more likely that at the minimum, western forum area members see a dangerous ice event as the week unfolds. 

The modeling is currently trending towards heavy ice accumulation for West Tennessee, moderate to heavy for the mid-State and Kentucky,  and light to moderate over the Plateau areas. 

These ice amounts would be devastating for trees and the power grid. West Tennessee is actually one of the most  freezing rain prone areas in the United States and these massive ice storms happen there. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Latest runs (6z GFS/ NAM/ RGEM) look pretty similar wrt to track to what John posted above. 

NAM and GFS are a little southeast of the RGEM. 6z Euro should be out in about 45 minutes and I will update with that as well. 

[Carvers Gap]

The NWS has added more counties in western TN to the WSW.  There are now some counties in NW MS in addition to the northern 2/3 of Arkansas.  I wold suspect there will be more counties in TN added.  For folks in those areas, time to make sure to have a backup heating source and power source.  Looks like the ice portion of the storm will run the Mississippi River and also along the Ohio.

[Carvers Gap]

From the NWS Office in Memphis:

National Weather Service Memphis TN
516 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

.UPDATE...

Updated 12z Aviation Discussion.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Tue Feb 1 2022/

DISCUSSION...
Well it looks like we will be dealing with a fairly significant
icing event for the Mid South later on this week. Today will be
another great day for the region as we warm into 60s again. Today
will be a great day to enjoy the weather as things will go down
hill Wednesday through Friday as a front will approach the region.
A few showers will develop tonight and should continue into
Wednesday. There could be a small break Wednesday before things
really go left. The arctic front will start to nose into the NE
AR/Mo Bootheel late in the day and temps there will start to fall.
Wednesday night through Thursday night is when the greatest chance
for impactful winter weather across the region.

Guidance is coming in more aggressive with the cold air and that
in turn is causing forecast ice accumulations to go up. Soundings
look very messy for the Mid South with several hours of Freezing
rain and sleet across the area. Some of the total are downright
nasty, but some of that is sleet. We have expanded the Winter
Storm Watch to include more of W TN, E AR, and a small portion of
MS. I am very concerned with the icing issues that this system
could pose as it could be fairly significant with numerous power
outages and very hazardous driving conditions. We will have to
monitor for the upgrade to Ice Storm Warnings and Winter Storm
Warnings...in all likelihood they would be Ice Storm Warnings as
snow will not be the dominant precip type. We are looking at the
possibility of 0.1 up to a half inch of ice possible across
portions of the Mid South when its all said and done. Again, the
time frame for the most significant icing looks to be late
Wednesday night through the day on Thursday. Please stay tuned to
the forecast because this is a very conditional situation and any
fluctuations in temperature or placement of the arctic front will
be the difference in you seeing a very cold rain or a significant
ice storm. Please stay weather aware as we try to sort out all of
the details over the next 24 hours.

Before all of the icing issues we will have heavy rainfall on the
warm side of this system. Up to 3 inches of rain over a good
portion of the area during the course of this event which may
cause localized flooding. Precipitation will taper off Thursday
night with temps in the 20s by morning under a brisk north wind.
Below normal temps and dry weather expected for the remainder of
the forecast period with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the
teens and 20s.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

34 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Latest runs (6z GFS/ NAM/ RGEM) look pretty similar wrt to track to what John posted above. 

NAM and GFS are a little southeast of the RGEM. 6z Euro should be out in about 45 minutes and I will update with that as well. 

Looks like the 6z Euro is more in the RGEM camp. 

[Carvers Gap]

As we watch what the 6z GFS had this morning in the LR...it might be worth again noting that the GFS nailed this storm in the d14-16 range.  It would waffle around a lot in terms of placement, but just an impressive job by the GFS.  It is simply uncanny how close that looks to what was placed in the banter thread about 2 weeks ago.  Hats off to American modeling this winter.

[Weathertree2]

59 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The NWS has added more counties in western TN to the WSW.  There are now some counties in NW MS in addition to the northern 2/3 of Arkansas.  I wold suspect there will be more counties in TN added.  For folks in those areas, time to make sure to have a backup heating source and power source.  Looks like the ice portion of the storm will run the Mississippi River and also along the Ohio.

I would imagine that there will be more changes with the 12z model suite

[Carvers Gap]

32 minutes ago, Weathertree2 said:

I would imagine that there will be more changes with the 12z model suite

It looks pretty locked in...I could be wrong.  I could see the transition line between rain and ZR move around 50 miles or so.  I think the threat to western areas is fairly dialed in.  Now, if that line pushes into BNA...that is the question.

[Weathertree2]

33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

It looks pretty locked in...I could be wrong.  I could see the transition line between rain and ZR move around 50 miles or so.  I think the threat to western areas is fairly dialed in.  Now, if that line pushes into BNA...that is the question.

Yea, i am closer to the KY than i am BNA has me cautiously optimistic that we miss ice but going to be close

[nrgjeff]

All the silly NWP precip algorithms aside, it's a fairly simple forecast. One inch of liquid qpf falling in below freezing air. Soundings favor freezing rain over sleet - not even close with that deep mild warm nose. 

I figure ice accumulations on trees and power lines averages 1/3 inch. That's much lower than those algos, but major ice storm criteria (>quarter). Half inch amounts will be common. That's a damaging ice storm. Any convective bands gets three-quarters which is truly crippling, but would be isolated to a county or two.

Long duration all freezing rain events, lots of overrunning before last wave, are classic major ice storms. When was that awful Volunteer Electric ice storm, 2015? Several years ago I believe.

Bottom line: First major ice storm in several years, this time West. We dodged a few bullets with scattered impacts a few years ago. I'm afraid this one is going to verify major. Pattern recognition is classic. NWP is far more consistent than the dodges a few years ago. This may be my last post of the event.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Euro looks like it jumped southeast a bit, a little more in line with the GFS than the Euro's 6z run. 

[The unknown]

Doesn’t anyone have the 12z euro maps for the ice event?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

8 minutes ago, The unknown said:

Doesn’t anyone have the 12z euro maps for the ice event?

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

It drops a pretty decent amount of sleet as it ends, so that run of the Euro has less fzr as the .qpf. 

[The unknown]

Thank you and definitely noticed at southeast tick in comparison to yesterday.

[Shocker0]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

All the silly NWP precip algorithms aside, it's a fairly simple forecast. One inch of liquid qpf falling in below freezing air. Soundings favor freezing rain over sleet - not even close with that deep mild warm nose. 

I figure ice accumulations on trees and power lines averages 1/3 inch. That's much lower than those algos, but major ice storm criteria (>quarter). Half inch amounts will be common. That's a damaging ice storm. Any convective bands gets three-quarters which is truly crippling, but would be isolated to a county or two.

Long duration all freezing rain events, lots of overrunning before last wave, are classic major ice storms. When was that awful Volunteer Electric ice storm, 2015? Several years ago I believe.

Bottom line: First major ice storm in several years, this time West. We dodged a few bullets with scattered impacts a few years ago. I'm afraid this one is going to verify major. Pattern recognition is classic. NWP is far more consistent than the dodges a few years ago. This may be my last post of the event.

Yes, February 21, 2015 here in Crossville we had an inch plus of freezing rain. It looked like a tornado came through in places with the high winds on top of it. Hopefully they will somehow get lucky out west with it not being as bad. Almost all of Crossville that could afford to, went to stay in hotels in Cookeville (barely any ice there and all the hotels there quickly became booked up too). The hotels also charged much higher rates than normal due to the influx from the storm.

Then, A few days later when everything started clearing up many people tried returning to Crossville. I-40 was shut down for a bit while powerlines were restored in Monterey so people weary from the ice storm all went to the shoulder to try to exit since the exit ramp was right there, and State Troopers went down the shoulder writing tickets to everyone for doing so. It added insult to injury after the ice storm when people had lost all their food and who knows what else.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I don't know how reliable this person is, or if this sort of bias is normal for the HRRR, or if it even matters, but something to consider I suppose:

 

[dwagner88]

1 hour ago, Shocker0 said:

Yes, February 21, 2015 here in Crossville we had an inch plus of freezing rain. It looked like a tornado came through in places with the high winds on top of it. Hopefully they will somehow get lucky out west with it not being as bad. Almost all of Crossville that could afford to, went to stay in hotels in Cookeville (barely any ice there and all the hotels there quickly became booked up too). The hotels also charged much higher rates than normal due to the influx from the storm.

Then, A few days later when everything started clearing up many people tried returning to Crossville. I-40 was shut down for a bit while powerlines were restored in Monterey so people weary from the ice storm all went to the shoulder to try to exit since the exit ramp was right there, and State Troopers went down the shoulder writing tickets to everyone for doing so. It added insult to injury after the ice storm when people had lost all their food and who knows what else.

 

I was happy to miss this one. It was 33-34 with rain the entire time here. Then we got a beautiful miller A with 8-10" of snow area wide right after.

[Shocker0]

16 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

I was happy to miss this one. It was 33-34 with rain the entire time here. Then we got a beautiful miller A with 8-10" of snow area wide right after.

Yeah it was rare because East of the Plateau was mostly snow while we were freezing rain. And the next storm that came through here that you're talking about only dumped 3 or 4 inches here I believe. Which was plenty due to the problems we already had at that point. Somehow our power was only off for a week here.

[Greyhound]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I don't know how reliable this person is, or if this sort of bias is normal for the HRRR, or if it even matters, but something to consider I suppose:

 

Bio on his main page says he's a forecaster with NWS/SPC............

[Holston_River_Rambler]

5 minutes ago, Greyhound said:

Bio on his main page says he's a forecaster with NWS/SPC............

It probably would help if I read his bio lol! Sometimes I see something and I’m like “ooo shiny, must share!” 
 

 

[John1122]

I've often found in these situations the cold creeps further S/E than modeled. JKL crept a little south with their winter storm watch this update. I think OHX will eventually have to issue winter products and that MEG will have to move theirs east. Hopefully our western forum guys aren't in the dark for days on end like some of the big 90s ice storms.

[Weathertree2]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I've often found in these situations the cold creeps further S/E than modeled. JKL crept a little south with their winter storm watch this update. I think OHX will eventually have to issue winter products and that MEG will have to move theirs east. Hopefully our western forum guys aren't in the dark for days on end like some of the big 90s ice storms.

I personally agree with you but OHX is so so hard headed - according to their discussion, main thing to be concerned about is possibly ponding water in areas....

000
FXUS64 KOHX 012040
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
240 PM CST Tue Feb 1 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Today turned out to be a very nice day. Temperatures warmed a bit
more in some place than what was in the grids with some locations
getting to 65/66 degrees across middle TN. This is going to change
as we have been advertising. Rain moves in tonight close to
midnight for the west and will spread east overnight. Rain becomes
definite by tomorrow and heavy at times on Thursday. QPF amounts
have came up a bit at this time from WPC guidance. Still expect
2.5" to 4" from 06Z Wednesday through 12Z Friday. Some locations
could receive locally heavier amounts. Hopefully with it being so
dry lately there will be no real flooding concerns outside of low
lying areas and locations that are prone to flooding. Since the
rain will be falling over a long period of time no type of flood
watch will be need. Middle TN tends to have some flashy
rivers/stream so advisories might be need by Thursday.

As the system is pulling out Thursday night into Friday winterly
weather is still expected. The GFS is the most aggressive with
the cold air...and the other global models not as much. The
northwest will have the best chance for mixed precipitation. The
main concern is freezing rain. With the ground currently warm and
a large warm nose /8 to 10C/ that is a lot of warm air to fall
through. Freezing rain the greatest threat.

It stays cold through the weekend with lows on Saturday in the
teens to low 20s. Highs will climb to around 40. Not quite as cold
Sunday morning...but still below freezing. A short wave moves
across the south Sunday morning and this could bring a very small
chance for rain/mixed precipitation for the plateau.

Once we get through the weekend it will be dry for the beginning
of the next work week with temperatures below climatology for this
time of year...but warming through the week.

[John1122]

The biggest question I have from the OHX statement is that the ground is warm. Not that it matters with freezing rain, as it's biggest threats are to elevated surfaces like limbs, powerlines and bridges. The 5-day average soil temperature just north of Nashville is 31.2. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

There seems to have been a slight trend on the models to push the worst of the FZR to remain NW of I 40 overnight, except for the 6z GFS. But there also seems ot have been a trend to see a little bit more of a secondary piece of energy running the boundary after the main push of precip. 

The RGEM shows this the best:

 

The NAMs seem to have something like this too, but they don't throw as much precip back. Have to wait and see if any other models pick up on this. 

 

[nrgjeff]

Surprised how quiet the thread has become. We don't do ice? I certainly agree ice is by far the worst kind of weather.

Arctic front may surge more into Middle Tenn. OHX has been hinting at teeing up stronger winter / ice messaging after getting the public aware of the flooding first. 

Saw MEM occasionally above 32 on CAMs. Overmixing. Little CAD east of the Ozarks is going to keep the Delta freezing and probably also the Memphis metro. 

Pain. Pain. Pain.

[AMZ8990]

36 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Surprised how quiet the thread has become. We don't do ice? I certainly agree ice is by far the worst kind of weather.

Arctic front may surge more into Middle Tenn. OHX has been hinting at teeing up stronger winter / ice messaging after getting the public aware of the flooding first. 

Saw MEM occasionally above 32 on CAMs. Overmixing. Little CAD east of the Ozarks is going to keep the Delta freezing and probably also the Memphis metro. 

Pain. Pain. Pain.

Yeah, Ice storms are just no fun.  Wish we were gonna see snow like OKC is but that’s just not on the table for us.  Hoping it doesn’t affect us to bad, ice could be crippling for some though depending upon the area.

[Weathertree2]

22 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Surprised how quiet the thread has become. We don't do ice? I certainly agree ice is by far the worst kind of weather.

Arctic front may surge more into Middle Tenn. OHX has been hinting at teeing up stronger winter / ice messaging after getting the public aware of the flooding first. 

Saw MEM occasionally above 32 on CAMs. Overmixing. Little CAD east of the Ozarks is going to keep the Delta freezing and probably also the Memphis metro. 

Pain. Pain. Pain.

Yea, seems kind of odd looking  at the watch/warning map to see the break in OHX territory 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro throws quite a bit of .qpf back towards Nashville and points west, after the 32 degree line has passed:

 

12z Euro FRAM ice map:

[Kentucky]

18z HRRR