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New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22


dryslot
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4 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Bit more 40 degree drizzle than I expected or care for, but finally getting rolling now. 

Tomorrow looks interesting. BTV 4km WRF has us subcritical and strongly blocked for 10 hours after the synoptic snows end.  Simulated returns are only like 15dBZ so it will be interesting to see what the ground truth actually is.

BTV4 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_BTV4_20220203_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 02/03 12Z 0.76 2428  98  89  -1 0.00
Thu 02/03 13Z 0.73 2525  99  80  -2 0.00
Thu 02/03 14Z 0.69 2523  99  82  -2 0.01
Thu 02/03 15Z 0.62 2521  99  86  -2 0.02
Thu 02/03 16Z 0.50 2518  99  89  -2 0.02
Thu 02/03 17Z 0.42 2516  99  93  -2 0.02
Thu 02/03 18Z 0.38 2614  98  94  -2 0.03
Thu 02/03 19Z 0.30 2612  97  94  -3 0.03
Thu 02/03 20Z 0.21 2709  97  95  -3 0.03
Thu 02/03 21Z 0.13 3007  96  97  -4 0.03
Thu 02/03 22Z 0.07 3206  96  96  -4 0.04
Thu 02/03 23Z 0.03 3406  95  96  -5 0.04
Fri 02/04 00Z 0.01 0006  95  96  -5 0.04
Fri 02/04 01Z 0.03 0106  94  96  -5 0.03
Fri 02/04 02Z 0.05 0206  94  96  -5 0.04
Fri 02/04 03Z 0.07 0306  94  97  -5 0.05
Fri 02/04 04Z 0.08 0406  94  97  -5 0.06
Fri 02/04 05Z 0.09 0506  94  97  -5 0.08
Fri 02/04 06Z 0.10 0507  93  97  -5 0.09
Fri 02/04 07Z 0.11 0507  93  96  -6 0.11
Fri 02/04 08Z 0.14 0608  93  96  -6 0.11
Fri 02/04 09Z 0.15 0609  93  96  -6 0.10
Fri 02/04 10Z 0.16 0609  92  96  -6 0.11
Fri 02/04 11Z 0.16 0610  92  96  -6 0.10
Fri 02/04 12Z 0.17 0710  92  96  -7 0.08
Fri 02/04 13Z 0.16 0610  92  96  -7 0.06
Fri 02/04 14Z 0.15 0609  92  96  -7 0.05
Fri 02/04 15Z 0.14 0608  92  96  -7 0.03
Fri 02/04 16Z 0.11 0606  92  95  -8 0.01
Fri 02/04 17Z 0.08 0505  93  93  -8 0.01
Fri 02/04 18Z 0.05 0304  94  90  -8 0.00
Fri 02/04 19Z 0.02 0004  95  91  -9 0.00
Fri 02/04 20Z 0.03 3405  94  92  -9 0.00
Fri 02/04 21Z 0.06 3206  93  92 -10 0.01

 

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5 minutes ago, PWMan said:

And of course, the line almost perfectly bisects PWM. This could be one of those where I end up with virtually nothing and it's 6" by the time I get to Falmouth.

I'm expecting not much more than 1-3" and much of that could be sleet. But I may drive into a pounding snow on my way to GYX tomorrow morning.

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks...god stuff, Chris. Is Albany just NW of that?

ALB is nearly due east of the radar. A hair north if getting technical. But it's south of the melting layer for sure.

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And of course, the line almost perfectly bisects PWM. This could be one of those where I end up with virtually nothing and it's 6" by the time I get to Falmouth.
yup, looking like a wet sloppy cold miserable wretched good for nothing 24 hrs+ in Yarmouth on Casco Bay

Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I don’t really hear about backlash snow anymore since Bruce Schwoegler left. Lol. He loved that

It was more a product of poor resolution in the models. They used to love showing light QPF on the back side of lows when the grid spacing was large. In reality the QPF was more for upslope locations with only flurries SE of there. 

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40 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Tomorrow afternoon is looking sort of gnarly. NAM nest is upper 20s by 18z for N CT with an additional 0.25" of liquid between 18z and 00z. Seems like a pretty nasty glaze/pingers. 

A lot of the morning drive we may rot around 33F. 

I'm actually wondering what the schools will do

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18 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

P&C is now 16-24. LOL

Mind you I hate the P&C wording, but I could see someone pulling 20s. That banding could support 1+ an hour for much of the event. Probably the only limiting factor is that I'm not sure we're going to have the fluffiest ratios.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

BOS will be nasty tomorrow IMHO....they go right below freezing at some point during the morning. So whether it is the morning commute or the PM school commute, it could be really nasty.

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking too. Even if the morning is okay down here, no guarantees on getting them home

 

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah, that's what I'm thinking too. Even if the morning is okay down here, no guarantees on getting them home

 

I think there’s more liability risk too when there’s ZR involved. Do you really want a bunch of school kids walking on skating rink sidewalks and stairs? Nevermind potential for traffic accidents. 

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