mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: It probably will be too. The forcing is intense but incredibly stable in location. Whoever gets under it will be several hours of 1"+/hr. I think most model sites are going to include sleet as snowfall because it is frozen. So naturally Kuchera or 10:1 will be way too high. Pivotal tries to separate out sleet and so the gradient is sharp but not quite as extreme. Thank you. Even there both Brian and I are in the 8 to 10 inch range and Gene 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, wx2fish said: Pretty nasty run for BOS. 32F around 12z with close to .5-.75" qpf after Yeah the BOS-ORH corridor I mentioned to Chris earlier is a tough forecast....it could be REALLY nasty between 12z and 18z there with a lot of QPF falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: It probably will be too. The forcing is intense but incredibly stable in location. Whoever gets under it will be several hours of 1"+/hr. I think most model sites are going to include sleet as snowfall because it is frozen. So naturally Kuchera or 10:1 will be way too high. Pivotal tries to separate out sleet and so the gradient is sharp but not quite as extreme. clicking around on soundings the cutoff does look pretty crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Any ballparks on how much sleet N ORH could see? 2-3" seems possible Fitchburg schools already closing for Friday Hard to say....3" of sleet sounds high, though not impossible. I think we'd need to have the BL cool by about 10-11Z to have that much.....it would take at least 1 inch of QPF to get 3" of sleet, and 3 to 1 is kind of aggressive for sleet ratios, though by the time we get -10C in the cold layer, the sleet ratio would become higher because of pixie dust probably mixing in....but before that, it's going to be IP/ZR mix and that will have ratios well below 2 to 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: clicking around on soundings the cutoff does look pretty crazy I think it will be, but it isn't going to go from double digits to zero. More like this relatively wide swatch of 2-4 types stuff with a lot of sleet contribution before you jump into the big totals. But given how stable the forcing is aloft, just north of the mid level front is going to pound town. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 38 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The cold push is looking less and less impressive around here tomorrow morning. Seems like we sort of rot at 32/33F for a while. Definitely not a flash freeze look. I think we may see a sea-saw in correction behavior. Like slow-ish on the frontside, but when those BD ageostrophic kinematics kick in, that may get a kind of ... call it last giggle, not laugh, but it may be colder than 32 stagnating. It's just long years of experience when it's low 20s in RUT-CON-PWM with 30 mph NE wind gusts .. little sarcastic but we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I think it will be, but it isn't going to go from double digits to zero. More like this relatively wide swatch of 2-4 types stuff with a lot of sleet contribution before you jump into the big totals. But given how stable the forcing is aloft, just north of the mid level front is going to pound town. Yeah those sharp cutoff snow maps are not shoing the relatively wide area of sleet accumulation....and some of that will be mixing with snow too...esp when you have such a narrow warm layer plus 900-925mb temps in the -10 to -12C range.....soundings like this: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Ryan will have to point out on his broadcast tomorrow morning if ORH is like 27F while BDL is just getting to freezing and Tolland is still near 50F.....a lot of meso guidance shows this. The ORH hills are blocking the cold from getting over and into NE CT while it drains down the CT Valley to the west 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ryan will have to point out on his broadcast tomorrow morning if ORH is like 27F while BDL is just getting to freezing and Tolland is still near 50F.....a lot of meso guidance shows this. The ORH hills are blocking the cold from getting over and into NE CT while it drains down the CT Valley to the west All fun and games until this happens on April 20th 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: HRRR takes forever to sink the sfc front from the pike region to N CT....it takes like 4-5 hours. DIT just pounded two more beers in disgust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 18z Nam even warmer, Oye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Ugh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Yeah NAM a little slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah those sharp cutoff snow maps are not shoing the relatively wide area of sleet accumulation....and some of that will be mixing with snow too...esp when you have such a narrow warm layer plus 900-925mb temps in the -10 to -12C range.....soundings like this: If I had full control of the forecast today I would not be congratulating Dendrite. I would bring the sleet up that far for a time. There an old rule of thumb that the heaviest snow is along the 850 mb -4C isotherm. That is pretty consistently around a LEB-Skowhegan line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 "Regularly scheduled NAM freakout" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 That s/w is sharpening, might be why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: All fun and games until this happens on April 20th We’ll be too high that day to care. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Ryan will have to point out on his broadcast tomorrow morning if ORH is like 27F while BDL is just getting to freezing and Tolland is still near 50F.....a lot of meso guidance shows this. The ORH hills are blocking the cold from getting over and into NE CT while it drains down the CT Valley to the west Scooter below freezing before Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We’ll be too high that day to care. Lol that wasn't even unintentional. Just saying, mocking the blockage of backdoor fronts is a dangerous game to play when spring is around the corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 46 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z HRRR has me just below freezing at 6am tomorrow but crawled its way there That model has been abysmal. It’ll be below freezing south of HFD by 7 AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: HRRR takes forever to sink the sfc front from the pike region to N CT....it takes like 4-5 hours. The same model that took the wave up over MA last night. Just terrible. Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3k is pretty far north with the snow hope its wrong for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Lol that wasn't even unintentional. Just saying, mocking the blockage of backdoor fronts is a dangerous game to play when spring is around the corner Ditty will be in his tight jean shorts washing his truck singing his favorite country song with a beer in hand while Will is stuck under a cloudy 35F playing angry heavy metal while kidding his kids toys around the house. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That s/w is sharpening, might be why. Might give us a bit of snow at the end as a consolation. The sharper that shortwave trends, the more moisture it will try and hang back. GFS kind of showed this better, NAM wasn't as enthusiastic, but that is a sharp s/w....maybe have to watch for tomorrow night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 The Nams are a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Ditty will be in his tight jean shorts washing his truck singing his favorite country song with a beer in hand while Will is stuck under a cloudy 35F playing angry heavy metal while kidding his kids toys around the house. Do you honestly think the HRRR is correct ? And Secondly. JC - CT laughs at every single one of your posts . Even when they are just obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Might give us a bit of snow at the end as a consolation. The sharper that shortwave trends, the more moisture it will try and hang back. GFS kind of showed this better, NAM wasn't as enthusiastic, but that is a sharp s/w....maybe have to watch for tomorrow night. 15z RAP was super weenie with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 KRUT crashed from 39 to 32 and flipped light rain to light snow over the past half hour, and KALB is now around the NW for the last hour, tho their temp/dp have yet to respond. KGFL also N with a 39 to 34 fall over the last half hour. Seems the front slices SW-NE across the Capital District of eastern N - S VT but gets crumbled up and lost in the terrain of N NH to keep Brian from getting cold. KSLK is 21 with snow and ice-fog, nasty. It's comin' ... KCAR was 37 at noon ...now 25 gusting N at 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Do you honestly think the HRRR is correct ? "a lot of meso guidance shows this" -Will, 12 minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Glad your getting sh it canned. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now