New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22

[OceanStWx]

8 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

All the models (even the globals) really like the Hudson River drain and into W CT too. 

I could see the last place to warm being the hills in between the valley and the pseudo-backdoor front/barrier jet.

[powderfreak]

43 minutes ago, das said:

A little nowcast obs from up here in NW VT.  36ºF with light showers.  The cold press is certainly delayed.  Just now seeing the first evidence of it crossing the border.  This is 2+ hours behind hi-rez guidance, which had already delayed it 4-6 hours starting last night.

We flipped to snow at 1,500ft about 20 minutes ago.  Definitely was a couple hours later than I was thinking.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I've noticed over the past couple years some of the HREF members tend to be a bit too cold at 2m and can over-do the low level drain down the valleys here in CT. 

But it is definitely interesting seeing the 12z HREF mean solidly below freezing in Hartford at 12z while HRRR/3km NAM (which are both HREF members) much slower. Shows you how frigid those other members are.

I'm hoping by later today we have a better sense of where that weak wave forms to our southwest and where the front sets up. 

There is significant timing of the wave itself too....some of those frigid members shut the precip off in early afternoon while the warmer ones might delay the cold, but they are precipitating well into afternoon and even evening.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

is that on schedule?

NAM had it nearly to the hour. GFS probably had QPF in there too early, but had snow forecast a couple hours ago.

[PhineasC]

17 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

wHo wOn?

GFS ass-kissers are kinda quiet this morning.

[CT Rain]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I could see the last place to warm being the hills in between the valley and the pseudo-backdoor front/barrier jet.

Hate to see it. 32F at BDL with 50F and snow eating fog at KTOL by 8z?

[dendrite]

GFS trimming back the southern edge again, but still barely dumps here.

[PhineasC]

GFS is also almost 2" liquid.

[CoastalWx]

Maybe some light snows SE ORH to HFD tomorrow night? S/W is sharp.

[JC-CT]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Maybe some light snows SE ORH to HFD tomorrow night? S/W is sharp.

I've been waiting for a model to try to do that. It's been dragging along a little bit more energy each run for a while.

[Lava Rock]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

GFS trimming back the southern edge again, but still barely dumps here.

I'm not much further north latitude wise, but we're frcst for 8-12". Not sure if that will pan out, but how is your area paltry?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

GFS is also almost 2" liquid.

Ass kisser.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS trimming back the southern edge again, but still barely dumps here.

Man I hate this model

Date: 18 hour GFS valid 6Z FRI  4 FEB 22
Station: 43.43,-71.62
Latitude:   43.43
Longitude: -71.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   151                                                                 
SFC  986   267  -1.4  -1.8  97  0.4  -1.6  11   5 272.9 273.4 272.3 282.1  3.40
  2  950   559  -3.2  -3.3  99  0.2  -3.3  35  14 274.0 274.5 272.6 282.5  3.14
  3  900   986  -3.3  -3.4  99  0.1  -3.3  77  19 278.1 278.7 275.3 287.3  3.31
  4  850  1441  -1.0  -1.1  99  0.1  -1.0 172  18 285.1 285.8 279.9 296.8  4.15
  5  800  1926  -0.1  -0.2 100  0.1  -0.1 213  51 291.1 291.9 283.3 304.7  4.73
  6  750  2444   0.1   0.1 100  0.0   0.1 218  72 296.7 297.6 285.9 311.8  5.13
  7  700  2995  -1.8  -1.9  99  0.1  -1.9 224  77 300.5 301.4 287.0 314.8  4.74
  8  650  3582  -4.6  -4.9  98  0.3  -4.7 230  79 303.8 304.5 287.5 316.3  4.09
  9  600  4209  -7.5  -7.9  97  0.4  -7.7 239  82 307.4 308.0 288.2 318.4  3.51
 10  550  4883 -11.0 -11.5  96  0.5 -11.2 246  77 311.1 311.6 288.8 320.3  2.89
 11  500  5610 -14.8 -15.2  97  0.4 -14.9 241  76 315.0 315.4 289.6 322.7  2.35

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, dendrite said:

Man I hate this model

Date: 18 hour GFS valid 6Z FRI  4 FEB 22
Station: 43.43,-71.62
Latitude:   43.43
Longitude: -71.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   151                                                                 
SFC  986   267  -1.4  -1.8  97  0.4  -1.6  11   5 272.9 273.4 272.3 282.1  3.40
  2  950   559  -3.2  -3.3  99  0.2  -3.3  35  14 274.0 274.5 272.6 282.5  3.14
  3  900   986  -3.3  -3.4  99  0.1  -3.3  77  19 278.1 278.7 275.3 287.3  3.31
  4  850  1441  -1.0  -1.1  99  0.1  -1.0 172  18 285.1 285.8 279.9 296.8  4.15
  5  800  1926  -0.1  -0.2 100  0.1  -0.1 213  51 291.1 291.9 283.3 304.7  4.73
  6  750  2444   0.1   0.1 100  0.0   0.1 218  72 296.7 297.6 285.9 311.8  5.13
  7  700  2995  -1.8  -1.9  99  0.1  -1.9 224  77 300.5 301.4 287.0 314.8  4.74
  8  650  3582  -4.6  -4.9  98  0.3  -4.7 230  79 303.8 304.5 287.5 316.3  4.09
  9  600  4209  -7.5  -7.9  97  0.4  -7.7 239  82 307.4 308.0 288.2 318.4  3.51
 10  550  4883 -11.0 -11.5  96  0.5 -11.2 246  77 311.1 311.6 288.8 320.3  2.89
 11  500  5610 -14.8 -15.2  97  0.4 -14.9 241  76 315.0 315.4 289.6 322.7  2.35

 

brutal

[klw]

8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

is that on schedule?

I think so, it seemed like it was light and mixed thoughout the day and not really getting to be snow at home until sunset.

Here is the BTV AFD:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Minor changes made to the forecast for this 915 AM update,
mainly to massage hourly temperatures based on current
observations. Still seeing spotty precipitation across the
region, some rain and some snow, likely some mix of rain and
snow as well. Reports of slippery untreated roads as colder air
moves into the region, though not yet seeing a sharp drop in
temperatures. Cold front is continuing to slowly push across our
area, as it does precipitation will change to all snow and
temperatures will continue to fall. Previous discussion follows.


The main event remains on track to begin this evening as the
cold front dips south of the forecast area by 00Z, and a weak
surface low currently taking shape over the Ozarks rides
northeastward along the boundary passing just to our south
Friday morning. Deep moisture and a swath of enhanced 850mb
frontogenesis lifting into central/southern portions of the area
will produce a period of moderate to heavy snow tonight into
Friday morning with snowfall rates of up to 1"/hr expected from
midnight to sunrise from the Adirondacks eastward through all of
Vermont. Unfortunately trends do continue to point towards a
brief low-level warm nose lifting into far southern Rutland and
Windsor counties where soundings support sleet mixing in, which
will cut down on snow totals a little bit before a changeover
back to snow during the pre-dawn hours. After sunrise, snow will
gradually taper off from west to east, but with extremely
blocked northerly flow it will probably take until the afternoon
to completely shutoff in the Champlain Valley.

When it`s all done by sunset Friday, total snow accumulations
are expected to be 7-10" in the St. Lawrence Valley and 8-14"
eastward except in far southeastern Windsor County where only
5-9" is expected due to sleet. The main impacts from the event
are expected to be travel related, but with the slightly wet
nature of the snow in southern Vermont there could be some
isolated power outages.

 

Prior AFD:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1

Previous Discussion...Overall, no major changes made to the
previous forecast but some minor modification have been made
based on latest observational and hi-res model trends. Surface
cold front is on the doorstep of the St. Lawrence Valley
currently while aloft temperatures have dropped below freezing
over much of the area. As such, many areas east of the
Adirondacks are seeing rain as the dominant ptype with snow
observed westward. At the summit levels snow is falling as well
per area webcams with already almost an inch noted above 3000
feet on Mount Mansfield. As the surface front slowly sags
southeastward today, periods of light rain and snow are expected
with a transition to all snow this afternoon. Owing to the
light nature of precipitation during the daylight hours, snow
accumulations will be generally low with the highest amounts
west of the Champlain Valley in the 1-3" range, while eastward
only a dusting to 2" is expected.

The main event remains on track to begin this evening as the cold
front dips south of the forecast area by 00Z, and a weak surface low
currently taking shape over the Ozarks rides northeastward along the
boundary passing just to our south Friday morning. Deep moisture and
a swath of enhanced 850mb frontogenesis lifting into
central/southern portions of the area will produce a period of
moderate to heavy snow tonight into Friday morning with snowfall
rates of up to 1"/hr expected from midnight to sunrise from the
Adirondacks eastward through all of Vermont. Unfortunately trends do
continue to point towards a brief low-level warm nose lifting into
far southern Rutland and Windsor counties where soundings support
sleet mixing in, which will cut down on snow totals a little bit
before a changeover back to snow during the pre-dawn hours.

[JC-CT]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe some light snows SE ORH to HFD tomorrow night? S/W is sharp.

 

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I've been waiting for a model to try to do that. It's been dragging along a little bit more energy each run for a while.

[dryslot]

I think 3-18" is a good range.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

I think 3-18" is a good range.

what a time to be alive

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, dryslot said:

I think 3-18" is a good range.

Lock it up. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

brutal

I mean that’s snow, but I don’t believe it. 

[Lava Rock]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I think 3-18" is a good range.

I'd take the high end since we got relatively screwed last wknd.

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Man I hate this model

Date: 18 hour GFS valid 6Z FRI  4 FEB 22
Station: 43.43,-71.62
Latitude:   43.43
Longitude: -71.62
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   151                                                                 
SFC  986   267  -1.4  -1.8  97  0.4  -1.6  11   5 272.9 273.4 272.3 282.1  3.40
  2  950   559  -3.2  -3.3  99  0.2  -3.3  35  14 274.0 274.5 272.6 282.5  3.14
  3  900   986  -3.3  -3.4  99  0.1  -3.3  77  19 278.1 278.7 275.3 287.3  3.31
  4  850  1441  -1.0  -1.1  99  0.1  -1.0 172  18 285.1 285.8 279.9 296.8  4.15
  5  800  1926  -0.1  -0.2 100  0.1  -0.1 213  51 291.1 291.9 283.3 304.7  4.73
  6  750  2444   0.1   0.1 100  0.0   0.1 218  72 296.7 297.6 285.9 311.8  5.13
  7  700  2995  -1.8  -1.9  99  0.1  -1.9 224  77 300.5 301.4 287.0 314.8  4.74
  8  650  3582  -4.6  -4.9  98  0.3  -4.7 230  79 303.8 304.5 287.5 316.3  4.09
  9  600  4209  -7.5  -7.9  97  0.4  -7.7 239  82 307.4 308.0 288.2 318.4  3.51
 10  550  4883 -11.0 -11.5  96  0.5 -11.2 246  77 311.1 311.6 288.8 320.3  2.89
 11  500  5610 -14.8 -15.2  97  0.4 -14.9 241  76 315.0 315.4 289.6 322.7  2.35

 

We are almost there exept for the 750-800 levels, and that is 1am.  It will get colder from there.  This is totally out to lunch?

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

I mean that’s snow, but I don’t believe it. 

And a lot of it too.

[dryslot]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

I'd take the high end since we got relatively screwed last wknd.

Your more likely to get screwed again.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I mean that’s snow, but I don’t believe it. 

We just don't normally win when we are on this kind of edge.  Can you remember a time where CON had 3-4 and you had 12-15?

[das]

16 minutes ago, klw said:

light snow mixing in here in downtown Burlington (BTV), most of the pack is toast here but survived without much of a dent at home.

Snowpack here in Charlotte went from 6" to 3" overnight.  That remaining 3" is very dense and water logged.  It'll be a foundational glacier here in the next 24 hours.

[PhineasC]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ass kisser.

Glad to see it caught on to the northern solutions finally at least. Goofus got a clue.

[bristolri_wx]

GFS has been gradually catching up.  I'm not sure it's been dramatically out-to-lunch at this one.  Not really defending it, but it's been correcting northward gradually each run. JMO...  All the hi-res guidance looks great for NNE...

[klw]

temp at BTV has dropped from 40 at 8am to 35 at 11.

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBTV.html

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

We just don't normally win when we are on this kind of edge.  Can you remember a time where CON had 3-4 and you had 12-15?

I can, but it’s been awhile.