ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Some of these mesos at 12z are obscenely frigid tomorrow AM. This is going to be an interesting nowcast....because while model bias may be to cool the midlevels too quick, the surface/BL is a different story. The typical bias on model guidance is to cool too slowly when you have a meso-low out east....particularly if a weak barrier jet forms over SW ME and SE NH and then that will just rip right down the corridor east of ORH hills. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Mentioned this yesterday, but the modeling disagreement with this, and this year is astounding. Never a consensus this season. WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 2:50 PM, ORH_wxman said: Some of these mesos at 12z are obscenely frigid tomorrow AM. This is going to be an interesting nowcast....because while model bias may be too cool the midlevels too quick, the surface/BL is a different story. The typical bias on model guidance is to cool too slowly when you have a meso-low out east....particularly if a weak barrier jet forms over SW ME and SE NH and then that will just rip right down the corridor east of ORH hills. Expand If we're lucky, might even get enough to do this 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 1:38 PM, Ginx snewx said: Happy anniversary Expand Those were the days . Man do we miss that 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 A little nowcast obs from up here in NW VT. 36ºF with light showers. The cold press is certainly delayed. Just now seeing the first evidence of it crossing the border. This is 2+ hours behind hi-rez guidance, which had already delayed it 4-6 hours starting last night. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 2:50 PM, ORH_wxman said: Some of these mesos at 12z are obscenely frigid tomorrow AM. This is going to be an interesting nowcast....because while model bias may be to cool the midlevels too quick, the surface/BL is a different story. The typical bias on model guidance is to cool too slowly when you have a meso-low out east....particularly if a weak barrier jet forms over SW ME and SE NH and then that will just rip right down the corridor east of ORH hills. Expand Yeah some mesos have that and others do not. I guess it comes down to whether or not a weak low forms near the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 NAM and high-res guidance is all 1.7"-ish liquid or more. 3k NAM and FV3 would be 20"+ here at 10:1. The band of Friday afternoon and evening looks more and more like high-ratio fluff here; that could tack on 5" in a hurry as the system departs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 1:29 PM, Ginx snewx said: I already told you but my feeling is you get the high end of your expectations. Expand Still feel that same way about my area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 2:50 PM, ORH_wxman said: Some of these mesos at 12z are obscenely frigid tomorrow AM. This is going to be an interesting nowcast....because while model bias may be to cool the midlevels too quick, the surface/BL is a different story. The typical bias on model guidance is to cool too slowly when you have a meso-low out east....particularly if a weak barrier jet forms over SW ME and SE NH and then that will just rip right down the corridor east of ORH hills. Expand yea the WRF-ARW / NSSL aren't backing down .. similar to 0z runs from last night gets the sub freezing air to the pike by ~7z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 2:57 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Those were the days . Man do we miss that Expand Photo taken by a polaroid camera covered with contact paper? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 2:50 PM, ORH_wxman said: Some of these mesos at 12z are obscenely frigid tomorrow AM. This is going to be an interesting nowcast....because while model bias may be to cool the midlevels too quick, the surface/BL is a different story. The typical bias on model guidance is to cool too slowly when you have a meso-low out east....particularly if a weak barrier jet forms over SW ME and SE NH and then that will just rip right down the corridor east of ORH hills. Expand You can just see the cold press coming hard and faster now . Happens everytime. Pegged to the coast by 6:00 AM 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 2:55 PM, WinterWolf said: Mentioned this yesterday, but the modeling disagreement with this, and this year is astounding. Never a consensus this season. WTF? Expand Too many models, too many cycles, too high resolutions, and too many weenies digesting them. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 2:57 PM, PhineasC said: NAM and high-res guidance is all 1.7"-ish liquid or more. 3k NAM and FV3 would be 20"+ here at 10:1. The band of Friday afternoon and evening looks more and more like high-ratio fluff here; that could tack on 5" in a hurry as the system departs. Expand And, the blocking here in the CPV looks more and more impressive for tomorrow afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 2:57 PM, das said: A little nowcast obs from up here in NW VT. 36ºF with light showers. The cold press is certainly delayed. Just now seeing the first evidence of it crossing the border. This is 2+ hours behind hi-rez guidance, which had already delayed it 4-6 hours starting last night. Expand Yep. 37 here, Alex is 46 (!!). Cold is slow to arrive. Not precipitating here yet. No clue if this means anything for down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 2:57 PM, das said: A little nowcast obs from up here in NW VT. 36ºF with light showers. The cold press is certainly delayed. Just now seeing the first evidence of it crossing the border. This is 2+ hours behind hi-rez guidance, which had already delayed it 4-6 hours starting last night. Expand Yeah, GFS has already busted hard. Euro seems more on track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 2:57 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah some mesos have that and others do not. I guess it comes down to whether or not a weak low forms near the Cape. Expand 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaizzo Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 37/38 going back and forth down here in the Naugatuck Valley. 40s all around just tossing it out there’s not expecting much but was expecting it to be warmer by now here (Ansonia) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I haven't seen any updates from the 30" blizzard zone. How is the pack holding up so far there? Curious if some can survive this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Euro dominating the cold push , 10am rtma vs fv3 which is the coldest model and euro at 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 3:02 PM, JC-CT said: Yeah, GFS has already busted hard. Euro seems more on track. Expand GFS was actually pretty good near PIT this morning (had to forecast there last night). GFS was a couple degrees too warm but showed the arrival of 32F better than hrrr. Doesnt mean it right here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 3:00 PM, PhineasC said: Yep. 37 here, Alex is 46 (!!). Cold is slow to arrive. Not precipitating here yet. No clue if this means anything for down south. Expand Cold rain won't be quite as cold for a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 3:15 PM, wx2fish said: GFS was actually pretty good near PIT this morning (had to forecast there last night). GFS was a couple degrees too warm but showed the arrival of 32F better than hrrr Expand How was the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 3:05 PM, ORH_wxman said: Expand How will we know the meso forms? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 wHo wOn? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 2:50 PM, ORH_wxman said: Some of these mesos at 12z are obscenely frigid tomorrow AM. This is going to be an interesting nowcast....because while model bias may be to cool the midlevels too quick, the surface/BL is a different story. The typical bias on model guidance is to cool too slowly when you have a meso-low out east....particularly if a weak barrier jet forms over SW ME and SE NH and then that will just rip right down the corridor east of ORH hills. Expand I've noticed over the past couple years some of the HREF members tend to be a bit too cold at 2m and can over-do the low level drain down the valleys here in CT. But it is definitely interesting seeing the 12z HREF mean solidly below freezing in Hartford at 12z while HRRR/3km NAM (which are both HREF members) much slower. Shows you how frigid those other members are. I'm hoping by later today we have a better sense of where that weak wave forms to our southwest and where the front sets up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 3:27 PM, CT Rain said: I've noticed over the past couple years some of the HREF members tend to be a bit too cold at 2m and can over-do the low level drain down the valleys here in CT. But it is definitely interesting seeing the 12z HREF mean solidly below freezing in Hartford at 12z while HRRR/3km NAM (which are both HREF members) much slower. Shows you how frigid those other members are. I'm hoping by later today we have a better sense of where that weak wave forms to our southwest and where the front sets up. Expand I've noticed it seems easier to bring that cold down the valley vs the NE hills. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 3:29 PM, CoastalWx said: I've noticed it seems easier to bring that cold down the valley vs the NE hills. Hmmm. Expand All the models (even the globals) really like the Hudson River drain and into W CT too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 3:21 PM, JC-CT said: How was the euro Expand It was decent too, maybe a hair slow, esp south of PIT. There was less disagreement there than there than here. Tough and interesting call around here. If we do get a meso going and solid NE flow, it may very well tuck better into E MA than further west, atleast initially. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 light snow mixing in here in downtown Burlington (BTV), most of the pack is toast here but survived without much of a dent at home. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 On 2/3/2022 at 3:37 PM, klw said: light snow mixing in here in downtown Burlington (BTV) Expand is that on schedule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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