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New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22


dryslot
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2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

NAM dropping 3-5" of sleet on my noggin, with a dusting of snow at the end.

Fun

5” of sleet would be insane, driving on secondary roads would be treacherous at best. 
Misery to clean up, snow blower won’t like it but can’t really let it sit and freeze on the driveway.  

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Just now, mahk_webstah said:

 I have a golden retriever who is a tick magnet so your freaked me out lol.

Is it a tick better enough?  That HRRR has  me and you with a foot with Penacook and Concord, and probably south Boscawen by the river, getting less than 6"

Toss the HRRR with the GFS right into the trash. Don't even bother trying to compost.

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There doesn't appear to be an obs thread for this ordeal ..

Looking at rad obs the the rain/snow transition appears to be moving ESE across upstate NY, ... about 45 mi W of ALB. But it's been marching steadily so. If the recent hour's progress were to continue, ALB ptype on rad starts cat pawing by noon.  But these transition lines can both hesitate and accelerate, as they 'wobble' along their journeys.   That looks like a metric for the position of the main frontal boundary, too, as though it were moving steadily along - but the most recent sfc analysis provided by WPC ( 8:44 this last hr) shows it west of this axis by some 70 or mi, so perhaps a sloppy metric to go by.  The SFC obs at Ucar aren't loading and I'm too lazy to find another source... Wunder' winds are never going to represent reality, do to site nuance, either..

Anyway, in this situation, where ever the front succeeds, it's not going back the other way - no way!  Whatever happens aft the frontal passage, notwithstanding.  I think that's the key now-cast focus for the next 18 hours. 

It 'looks' like the cold is maybe ahead of guidance based on these coarse observation methods.  I think what we need is ground truth reports about the sky conditions... If there's a defined NW motion over a given spot, the fronts gone by.

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