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New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22


dryslot
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32 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Working in PWM, I'm rather surprised how much snow was lost this week. There's quite a few patches of grass and not much to show for last wknd's event.

That fluff that we got late Saturday settled very quickly, and there were bare spots due to the wind. Now it's getting annihilated by this swampy airmass. 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

I could see the sfc verifying cooler, but I think the nam wins the mid level warmth. So I’m tossing the gfs. We’ll get the typical slow transition of RA to FZRA to PL to SN. Maybe 2-4” of frozen glop while Gene pulls over a foot in Bridgewater. 

Yeah I'm going to be tossing the model that is dumping 15+ for my backyard still.

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

The problem is the midlevel press is still from the NW. 750mb dgiaf about the NE ageo flow. 

I definitely could see this just being more of a mess vs rain, but I think I'm selling the totals south of our transition zone.

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19 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

I wonder if weather model pages are pulling the HRRR ptype right from its own algorithm. Because it pretty much shows sleet and freezing rain as overlapping in all areas where there is either...possible that the graphics are pulilng fzra if it's present. Some areas that it shows fzra would definitely be sleet-heavy. For example, the ptype graphics show this as fzra on TT, whereas in reality it is probably a solid mix of ip/fz.

hrrr_2022020312_fh31_sounding_42.40N_71.

That's probably pure sleet with pixie dust mixed in....the cold layer is -10C on that which can actually form dendrites and the warm layer looks +3C-ish.....in addition the cold layer is really deep.

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55 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Working in PWM, I'm rather surprised how much snow was lost this week. There's quite a few patches of grass and not much to show for last wknd's event.

The blizzard left some weird snow cover around town. My yard had big near bare spots and once temps warmed up those melted out quick and infected the rest of the pack around my place. I lost half my depth yesterday with a T of liquid.

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