JC-CT Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: HREF FRAM Poor tolland county tho. Washed with dews, or pelting with sleet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: HREF FRAM we take! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Looks to be a significant winter storm event from the Lakes Region north. QPF in the 1.5-2" range. Not much in the DGZ, but 12-18" looks likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1011 mb low over mid Atlantic and 1042 mb high over southern Quebec at 6z Friday, with meso lows to my southeast. Winds are ripping out of the northeast in my backyard and…the mesos say…rain? And the GFS has the surface low moving south of the cape. A non-event? What’s especially interesting about this up here, is it’s not your typical cold drain. It’s a literal switch—more similarities to a strong back door in eastern New England than a run-of the mill front. Once that high builds into southern Ontario the CAD is northeasterly, NOT northwesterly. Big difference imo. The latter means non-event—we cool as the precip moves out. Either the GFS is completely OTL on these larger scale features or I’m frigid by 6z Friday with a sig frozen (mostly snow) event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 1011 mb low over mid Atlantic and 1042 mb high over southern Quebec at 6z Friday, with meso lows to my southeast. Winds are ripping out of the northeast in my backyard and…the mesos say…rain? And the GFS has the surface low moving south of the cape. A non-event? What’s especially interesting about this up here, is it’s not your typical cold drain. It’s a literal switch—more similarities to a strong back door in eastern New England than a run-of the mill front. Once that high builds into southern Ontario the CAD is northeasterly, NOT northwesterly. Big difference imo. The latter means non-event—we cool as the precip moves out. Either the GFS is completely OTL on these larger scale features or I’m frigid by 6z Friday with a sig frozen (mostly snow) event. ya GFS is insanely cold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, jbenedet said: 1011 mb low over mid Atlantic and 1042 mb high over southern Quebec at 6z Friday, with meso lows to my southeast. Winds are ripping out of the northeast in my backyard and…the mesos say…rain? And the GFS has the surface low moving south of the cape. A non-event? What’s especially interesting about this up here, is it’s not your typical cold drain. It’s a literal switch—more similarities to a strong back door in eastern New England than a run-of the mill front. Once that high builds into southern Ontario the CAD is northeasterly, NOT northwesterly. Big difference imo. The latter means non-event—we cool as the precip moves out. Either the GFS is completely OTL on these larger scale features or I’m frigid by 6z Friday with a sig frozen (mostly snow) event. SO….you’re again saying all modeling is out to lunch except the GFS? And this trends colder as we move in to tomorrow morning?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 This is interesting, I’m plain rain at this hour and raining several hours after according to NAM, on strong northeast winds. It’s as if there’s a back door front that the mesos don’t care to resolve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Where are you again... nw of Portland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Damn this looks like a great event in NNE. Wish I was tucked away I a lil cabin up there glued to a window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Advisory went up down here… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I could see the sfc verifying cooler, but I think the nam wins the mid level warmth. So I’m tossing the gfs. We’ll get the typical slow transition of RA to FZRA to PL to SN. Maybe 2-4” of frozen glop while Gene pulls over a foot in Bridgewater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: That makes me ragey. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 To my mind there should be a more north/south orientation of the ptype in eastern New England as the northeast CAD presses southwest. If the airmass to our north wasn’t cold, I’d understand a lag—but it’s not…it’s very cold…all models agreed on that… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Where are you again... nw of Portland? Where it says auburn, I'm just to the east near 495. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: That makes me ragey. I'm with you on this, I'm actually right on the fence by just a few miles and i'm talking just a few, It could go either way here, It'll be a nowcast deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Looking at everything from last night and this morning so far, The only 3 models that have me with more sleet then snow is the 12 Nam and GGEM/RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStick Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: Right where we need it! Trails should be awesome next few weeks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The problem is the midlevel press is still from the NW. 750mb dgiaf about the NE ageo flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It will be wiped out. These two days got much warmer than expected. Already into the 40’s. Runaway and others get their wishes It’s not our wish. We can’t will the weather to our liking. One day when you’re older, wiser, and posting past 830pm…you will begin to forecast objectively yourself. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Pretty quiet AM shift in here… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think that’s gone too. It was like summer out there running earlier. Just drenched in sweat.. thick snow eating fog and warm Sw winds blowing. It’s amazing how fast snow can melt in these conditions. To think snow lovers on the board take pleasure in pack wipeouts makes you sick . lol. Pack-eating fog, temps, and rain are awful, but there's nothing that can be done... ...unless we can get a hold of that TSCWCT (Top-Secret-Chinese-Weather-Changing-Technology) and push the cold temps and snow over the top of us for the duration of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Raining here Bye snow pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: The problem is the midlevel press is still from the NW. 750mb dgiaf about the NE ageo flow. As you mentioned before, makes most sense that the surface temps are too warm. So corrections from less rain to more ice much more likely than less rain to more snow… I don’t like seeing all that plain rain on mesos on northeast winds. Makes me think column is warm everywhere but the surface, which is below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s not our wish. We can’t will the weather to our liking. One day when you’re older, wiser, and posting past 830pm…you will begin to forecast objectively yourself. You love when our snow east of river melts. You chew to it 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Looks like a scalping here Friday morning. Meh…hopefully we can flip to a burst of snow at the end.l for a quick inch to freshen things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Raining here Bye snow pack Same. It’s amazing how quickly we lost this pack. We’ll be down to patches by late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You love when our snow east of river melts. You chew to it You’re hungover and clearly in rage right now so I’ll let you go. I wish you a speedy recovery and minimal pack loss. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Amazing how 40 degrees feels like 65 after the month we just had, and a the first 40 degree day in autumn feels like below zero, cold rain here, but as I said feels warmer than 40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, tavwtby said: Amazing how 40 degrees feels like 65 after the month we just had, and a the first 40 degree day in autumn feels like below zero, cold rain here, but as I said feels warmer than 40 Alaskan shorts weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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