Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: It’s been pretty good this year honestly. I want ice and snow pack just as badly as you do. It’s not looking good. It’s looked like rain to start for all of SNE.. perhaps a bit north into CNE.. I’ve never once thought it wasn’t going to rain. I have not agreed with warm 50’s inches of rain and dews wiping out the snowpack to ORH like these guys have happening .We’ve all been on these boards and into wx long enough to know when you don’t have a wrapped up storm and weaker waves the cold drains, presses happen earlier than modeled almost always. I’m not expecting any snow at all except maybe at the tail end unless colder trends continue . For now I’m thinking rain to zr to sleet ending as snow. Is that so far off base? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Colder for freezing rain at end. Warmer for the Pac-Man eating pack. 1"+ of rain before any changeover too, no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: I'm not an expert at all at figuring out sleet vs freezing rain...but this is a pretty deep cold layer, no? ptype algo is showing FZRA but I'm guessing it's an IP/FZ mix. Ya it depends exactly how warm we get too. Outta thread but I almost had a heart attack I thought I loaded the wrong map I thought it was hrrr but it was gfs at hour 300 and it has a major ice storm like 2” of ice. Whoops.. here’s hrrr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s looked like rain to start for all of SNE.. perhaps a bit north into CNE.. I’ve never once thought it wasn’t going to rain. I have not agreed with warm 50’s inches but f rain and dews wiping out the snowpack to ORH. We’ve all been on these boards and into wx long enough to know when you don’t have a wrapped up storm and weaker waves the cold drains, pressed happen earlier than modeled almost always. I’m not expecting any snow at all except maybe at the tail end unless colder trends continue . For now I’m thinking rain to zr to sleet ending as snow. Is that so far off base? It's going to start as rain to Canada. It's literally already raining all along Canadian border in NY state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s looked like rain to start for all of SNE.. perhaps a bit north into CNE.. I’ve never once thought it wasn’t going to rain. I have not agreed with warm 50’s inches of rain and dews wiping out the snowpack to ORH like these guys have happening .We’ve all been on these boards and into wx long enough to know when you don’t have a wrapped up storm and weaker waves the cold drains, pressed happen earlier than modeled almost always. I’m not expecting any snow at all except maybe at the tail end unless colder trends continue . For now I’m thinking rain to zr to sleet ending as snow. Is that so far off base? No that’s what Im thinking you have more wiggle room though maybe a few hours with dews and torch while I may get 4-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya it depends exactly how warm we get too. Outta thread but I almost had a heart attack I thought I loaded the wrong map I thought it was hrrr but it was gfs at hour 300 and it has a major ice storm like 2” of ice. Whoops.. here’s hrrr That's qpf right? Not accretion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s looked like rain to start for all of SNE.. perhaps a bit north into CNE.. I’ve never once thought it wasn’t going to rain. I have not agreed with warm 50’s inches of rain and dews wiping out the snowpack to ORH like these guys have happening .We’ve all been on these boards and into wx long enough to know when you don’t have a wrapped up storm and weaker waves the cold drains, presses happen earlier than modeled almost always. I’m not expecting any snow at all except maybe at the tail end unless colder trends continue . For now I’m thinking rain to zr to sleet ending as snow. Is that so far off base? Nice spin. That's what we all have been saying while you were dead set on a big ice storm and posting zr clowns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: That's qpf right? Not accretion? Correct the href fram output was ominous at 12z though. Already plenty of ice accretion with hours to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya it depends exactly how warm we get too. Outta thread but I almost had a heart attack I thought I loaded the wrong map I thought it was hrrr but it was gfs at hour 300 and it has a major ice storm like 2” of ice. Whoops.. here’s hrrr saw that GFS fantasy on weather.cod that was a crusher but 12 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I'm not an expert at all at figuring out sleet vs freezing rain...but this is a pretty deep cold layer, no? ptype algo is showing FZRA but I'm guessing it's an IP/FZ mix. That's a close call...the warm layer is also pretty fat on that and approaching 5C...gets hard to refreeze into pellets when that happens.....BUT, the cold layer is REALLY cold. It is even harder to NOT refreeze into pellets when your cold layer is -8C. Typically when the cold layer gets to -6C or so, ZR becomes difficult unless the -6C layer is right near the ground, which in this case it is not. So I'd prob say that is a sleet sounding....though maybe sort of a mix of sleet and ZR is possible too, but I'd be surprised if that was mostly ZR. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That's a close call...the warm layer is also pretty fat on that and approaching 5C...gets hard to refreeze into pellets when that happens.....BUT, the cold layer is REALLY cold. It is even harder to NOT refreeze into pellets when your cold layer is -8C. Typically when the cold layer gets to -6C or so, ZR becomes difficult unless the -6C layer is right near the ground, which in this case it is not. So I'd prob say that is a sleet sounding....though maybe sort of a mix of sleet and ZR is possible too, but I'd be surprised if that was mostly ZR. Makes sense - it's both the height of the warm and cold layers, plus how warm and cold they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That's qpf right? Not accretion? FWIW FRAM 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: FWIW FRAM I mean, it's not nothing. Curious why BOX hasn't updated their AFD today, I'd really like to know if they still think very minimal accretion outside of western zones. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 the push is faster on the NAM so far but was really warm at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 That's a nice cold tuck into E MA on the hrrr. If we get the meso oriented like that it's gonna be a violent drop. NE G25-30KT near the NH seacoast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Why does it always seems to be after a big sn storm, within a week there is a rainer. Happened twice in 2017. 26" and 22" storms nearly wiped away a week later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18z HRRR is nasty here on Friday late morning and aftn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Yeah NAM quicker with the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 much colder NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, wx2fish said: That's a nice cold tuck into E MA on the hrrr. If we get the meso oriented like that it's gonna be a violent drop. NE G25-30KT near the NH seacoast. Word! outlined this earlier myself... and no model really is going to 'nail' the lowest 1,000 feet with extraordinary precision wrt floor jets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 NAM's going to savage someone with sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: NAM's going to savage someone with sleet. ya really cold run night and day compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: NAM's going to savage someone with sleet. a lot of people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 all of CT below freezing by hr 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ya really cold run night and day compared to 12z Could be - as in maybe ... - a beginning collapse back SE as it's out ranges get nearer. I have been concerned about this guidance' tendency in the +48 hours to be too far NW with frontal positions and cyclone tracks - just reiterating.. - as plausibly doing so in this overall scenario. not sure.. it's the NAM and it could be giga motions too. Need a couple of more cycles and some help from the GFS ( I'm a little put off by the Euro right now - ) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 heavy snow at hr 45 for me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: heavy snow at hr 45 for me thanks for sharing the particulars of your backyard 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 this is a perfect run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: thanks for sharing the particulars of your backyard hr 48 still heavy snow here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: heavy snow at hr 45 for me I am on mobile, how does Greenfield look? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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