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New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22


dryslot
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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Lotta ice 

I'm selling big ice....seems the 900-925 layer cools very quickly behind the surface....that says pellets to me. I want to see the atmospheric profile more sloped for ice. There will be a narrow area of decent glaze, but it likely won't be crippling.

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52 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The Ensembles have been pretty damn consistent for 3 days now.

12z GEFS 6"+ probabilities.  BUF to BTV to BML steady as she goes.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-neng-snow_ge_6-4192000.thumb.png.e120dd39d15319b4edc1840d24c3eb08.png

I have somewhat unrealistic dreams where a 1000 mile wide and 200 mile deep derecho comes at me from the northwest and the last radar frame I see before my roof peels off looks a lot like this.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm selling big ice....seems the 900-925 layer cools very quickly behind the surface....that says pellets to me. I want to see the atmospheric profile more sloped for ice. There will be a narrow area of decent glaze, but it likely won't be crippling.

Where are you thinking that zone is? Maybe southern 2/3 CT?

Ryans cousin here

 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Where are you thinking that zone is? Maybe southern 2/3 CT?

No, prob shifted north now...maybe N CT to S MA...but it's also possible it just never really materializes....if 900-925 hugs the below-freezing sfc air pretty close, then it will just be a brief period of ZR and then pellets (or a mix of both which will also cut down on accretion) and then mostly rain south of where that line slows down.

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6 minutes ago, eekuasepinniW said:

I have somewhat unrealistic dreams where a 1000 mile wide and 200 mile deep derecho comes at me from the northwest and the last radar frame I see before my roof peels off looks a lot like this.

I’ll trade this snowstorm for that derecho.  Let’s do it.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No, prob shifted north now...maybe N CT to S MA...but it's also possible it just never really materializes....if 900-925 hugs the below-freezing sfc air pretty close, then it will just be a brief period of ZR and then pellets (or a mix of both which will also cut down on accretion) and then mostly rain south of where that line slows down.

I think most folks here realize the cold press will win. They always rip in faster than even the coldest models show. Just a suspicion, but the folks calling for all rain dews and full pack loss are going to be doing some WTF’s come Friday morning 

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think most folks here realize the cold press will win. They always rip in faster than even the coldest models show. Just a suspicion, but the folks calling for all rain dews and full pack loss are going to be doing some WTF’s come Friday morning 

Even the coldest meso (ARW) gives you 1" of rain before flipping to below 32 at the surface.

I also haven't seen folks calling for "all rain" but maybe I missed it.

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