JKEisMan Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: It's also not done by then Yeah, definitely still going beyond that. Will be interesting to see how it looks tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 winter storm watches over to ice storm warnings this afternoon? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Interesting that the herpes definitely sees more cold than its big brothers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The Ensembles have been pretty damn consistent for 3 days now. 12z GEFS 6"+ probabilities. BUF to BTV to BML steady as she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, powderfreak said: The Ensembles have been pretty damn consistent for 3 days now. 12z GEFS 6"+ probabilities. BUF to BTV to BML steady as she goes. That definitely looks north of the first time I recall you posting it though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: winter storm watches over to ice storm warnings this afternoon? Down to the Merritt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The Ensembles have been pretty damn consistent for 3 days now. 12z GEFS 6"+ probabilities. BUF to BTV to BML steady as she goes. Consistent for you maybe lol. Not around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I'm surprised given all the previous discussion of how well the NAM does with thermals there is not much stock being placed in it. Any specific reason for it being tossed aside or is it the frozen precip model output confirmation bias in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Biggest euro run of our lives coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I know some of us have discussed the climo unlikely result of more than 1/2 inch of ice. But how do people behave in this region if we come up to the day before the event and models and forecasts insist this sort of thing is imminent? Do they shut down the state as with a blizzard? I know its a major difference versus driving when youre getting 3 inches of snow. The idea of being stranded someplace in a ravine or on the roads is something nobody wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That definitely looks north of the first time I recall you posting it though. Maybe a tick but in the larger sense of it... BUF to BTV to BML has seen very little change on most ensembles for 3 days. The OPs have had their issues but the means seemed pretty steady, usually north of the colder Op runs. The southern end has been trimmed back for sure. In fact the earliest ones had the highest probs a bit north of here but for a time yesterday settled a bit under here. But we are all going to see it differently, being on the boundary line you see a lot more variance run to run. Sort of like E.MA in the last snowstorm, didn't matter what guidance was it was all consistent there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I'd like to sell those to you. How much are you willing to pay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Biggest euro run of our lives coming up. I have no idea what to think in your area... like miles either way have a huge effect. You'll notice coal miner's burping in PA and pumping heights by a decimal point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: I have no idea what to think in your area... like miles either way have a huge effect. You'll notice coal miner's burping in PA and pumping heights by a decimal point. It depends on which model you want to hug, Some of the mesos have the right idea, As well as the globals, We will see what the euro does here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 TWC has zero ice for us if some of these models are right people wont be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Looks like the 12z Euro is going to tic south here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Looks like the 12z Euro is going to tic south here we press 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Looks like the 12z Euro is going to tic south here Just now, JC-CT said: we press yup who knows though models are still everywhere pretty sad this close in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: we press 21z on the 06z run the 0c line was NW of me, Its SE of me on the 12z run at the same time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Albany County is a Gradient forecast clusterfudge. As are many places. I say we burn the models. They’re witches. . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 I can't toss the Nam again because i already did. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Euro is still dragging ass on the cold, really not exciting at all verbatim. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I know some of us have discussed the climo unlikely result of more than 1/2 inch of ice. But how do people behave in this region if we come up to the day before the event and models and forecasts insist this sort of thing is imminent? Do they shut down the state as with a blizzard? I know its a major difference versus driving when youre getting 3 inches of snow. The idea of being stranded someplace in a ravine or on the roads is something nobody wants. I've had 3/4" of ice here in Enfield with no problems whatsoever. Roads get salted as with a snowstorm and life goes on. Driving slowly and cautiously as in a snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is still dragging ass on the cold, really not exciting at all verbatim. It's right nearby but doesn't want to pay a visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 It's actually a tick warmer or just noise down here compared to 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 21 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: I know some of us have discussed the climo unlikely result of more than 1/2 inch of ice. But how do people behave in this region if we come up to the day before the event and models and forecasts insist this sort of thing is imminent? Do they shut down the state as with a blizzard? I know its a major difference versus driving when youre getting 3 inches of snow. The idea of being stranded someplace in a ravine or on the roads is something nobody wants. 1) The world is ending newscasts 2) Schools close for Friday without even waiting to see if there is any ice/sleet/snow on Friday morning 3) The same people who filled 4 shopping carts with groceries prior to the blizzard do the same tonight or tomorrow. Some may even have groceries left in their vehicles from pre blizzard shopping. 4) Bags of ice melt become worth more than Bitcoin 5) The Weather Channel flies in as many people as possible including people who do not even work for the Weather Channel. 24/7 coverage. Mike Seidel isn't blown over by the wind. 6) Someone on the forum mentions that his wife has thrown him out of the house after his wish for a complete collapse of the power grid has come to fruition. Outside of those it will be a very typical day! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 My pack is getting eviscerated. Currently 48F. This will be back to complete mud by Friday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Yeah the accums gradient bumped decently north. Looks good here for 8-10" though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Increased QPF a bit up north, can't hate it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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