JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: actually much colder needs to be put in the context of how much a complete torch it was at 0z/6z, or it's not particularly useful information. The most extreme model on either side should be expected to adjust towards the center. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: doesnt make much difference I dont think day or night this time of year... a couple weeks from now maybe Just based on past experiences the worse icing events in the Merrimack Valley area have occurred during late afternoon and into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: actually much colder Figured it had to break towards the consensus position eventually. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yes, I did mention that....and we often see late shifts north on these. The most "interesting" aspect of the storm in SNE is now all about the frontal boundary at the surface.....if we meso-low this thing with a finger of low pressure over the Cape and into the waters east of BOS, then it's going to be a lot of icing (sleet may cut down though?).. 15z RAP shows you how it's done. Cold air from the north, meet warm air from the south. Hello ice. Tolland-approved. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Separate 'operational' question... At what point ( also ) do we begin to justly questioning the Euro due to performance? The impetus for 'needing to ask' is because it's spent 20 years as the MVP model - it's kind of institutional. The last 2 of which ...particularly, 1 years, have begun to shake the foundation ( maybe?). Or, the other model skills have elevated and are competitive. So there may be some relativity to it.. Plus, the last system and this one have 0 comparative synoptic root causality ... other than the fact that they both are occurring in Terran atmosphere. Heh. I mean ... should the old adage of 'past performance doesn't justify present response' apply? I think it does though in some sense. If a model is getting increasingly untrustworthy ... you'd better still modulate that into one's reasoning... Duh. The other aspect is the verification scoring method - I don't know... Is that done as a globally integrated qualitative thing...? Or is x-y-z model also examined in quadrature. Like, maybe the Euro is so flawless out over the open expanse of the Saharan African continent, that it soars its average ( sarcasm...), but just between ORD-BOS and the Del Marva, it has a weird weakness that it doesn't carry on with anywhere else on the planet. Man, the way I remember the last storm: the Euro had no clue for the first 4 days of the thing.. Then, suddenly, at D5 or 6 ( so I guess it gets a pass?) it sees it hugely and slams the EC with a history blah blah blah... Then, it insists that way for 3 days... while the GFS never was that emphatic. It had weaker, stress coherence low organization... with problems extending impacts N-W ... sometimes even missing altogether, which has its own concern ... But in the end, the Euro demonstrated clear, over all poorer performamce consistency, and ultimately .. wrongness - sorry it just did. The GFS was not perfect, but it scored better in my anecdotal recall - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 15z RAP shows you how it's done. Cold air from the north, meet warm air from the south. Hello ice. Tolland-approved. We'll see how the rap performs. it does zr/ip quite a bit after 1" of rain but we're also still digging out from it's Saturday performance out here when it was dumping 18-24" at nowcast time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Hey JC' ... do you have the top panel at the 850 mb by any chance ( same prodcut source ? ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We'll see how the rap performs. it does zr/ip quite a bit after 1" of rain but we're also still digging out from it's Saturday performance out here when it was dumping 18-24" at nowcast time. Sure, I'm just pointing out a model that happens to show the scenario 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Hey JC' ... do you have the top panel at the 850 mb by any chance ( same prodcut source ? ) That's not the 3rd image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: That's not the 3rd image? Maybe he wants temps and not dewpoints....here's temps 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That's not the 3rd image? Uh sorry - helps to scroll huh lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe he wants temps and not dewpoints....here's temps Actually I wanted to see the wind ... which he's right the lower panel had that. I was thinking their might be more N component over Maine but it's interesting light and E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 35 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: actually much colder Looks a tick cooler, about it. But it was so far warm, it had nowhere to go but down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 ukie is warm now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 This thing is a total disaster….models all over the place. Flip a coin for god sakes. Model disaster this season…zero agreement/continuity. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This thing is a total disaster….models all over the place. Flip a coin for god sakes. Model disaster this season…zero agreement/continuity. I blame the atmosphere! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This thing is a total disaster….models all over the place. Flip a coin for god sakes. Model disaster this season…zero agreement/continuity. And it's terrible weather for us too. It isnt fun like snow. Its cold rain or even worse, ice and other nasties. I fear the horrible prospects of the need to travel at the height of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I'd like to get this out of the way asap. I don't find chasing frontal boundaries very exciting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Seems like the real uncertainty is between the lakes region NH and adjacent maine and the notches for sleet vs snow totals. Do some of the mid levels get porked south of the white mountains or not for longer than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I can’t wait for this thing to be in the rear view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hazey said: I'd like to get this out of the way asap. I don't find chasing frontal boundaries very exciting. careful for what you wish for. May not have many bullets left down this way, anyway. We'll take the ice/rain/snow and enjoy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 When i see these warm post i think the front is still in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: I can’t wait for this thing to be in the rear view. the GFS looks to have the same thing from the 14th to the 16th lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: When i see these warm post i think the front is still in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: the GFS looks to have the same thing from the 14th to the 16th lol Two weeks out …ya don’t bet on it. OP runs ftl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 href ice potential 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 And snow for those up north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: href ice potential It's also not done by then 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: href ice potential more after that to if you look at the 3 hourly maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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