40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I was briefly thinking you might score on this one....but you get porked again being too far south for good snow. You might get a lot of ZR/IP though....lol. Your area will likely drain the cold in the low levels pretty efficiently. It's okay. I've learned to expect it...not even complaining. Maybe next year- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro is definitely all by itself on the surface/BL cold pressing in very weakly. The recent NAM runs hint though. TT's rendition of the 2-meter temperature, the model's taking until 12 Z to get the 0C isotherms to a rough Springfield-Nashua line, and 18Z to get it to south of the Boston-Hartford/Willimantic. Which I find a tad annoying. It's a high resolution hydrostratic model - which means ( in theory) it is integrating theta-e into the column. It should 'detect' the weight of the air, when the fresh low DPs flood east of the Whites...setting off the 'tuck' intrusion by the pressure rises in east of the Whites/CNE -->coast. It's failing to induce the ducting ('burrier') jet, so no SW tuck once the pressures rises in earnest from BGR-PSM. That fails both convention and climate to me. I mean... climate -haha. It's like, "rules: they're meant to be broken," and so too "behavior climatology" doesn't mean aspects will obey. But this is true for all models... The Euro could nail that frontal position, but blow it on these particulars. I think it is possible enough that the E end of Mohawk Trail in Massachusetts... somewhere E of North Adams and probably Orange east, might see the 0C isotherm a correct S of present synoptic scale detection. But earlier on not just sagging but growing toward the S-SW perhaps 4 to 6 hours sooner. I hate to say but the ICON ( oh Jesus-) looks more indicative.. hell, it even has the CAD nose +delta over central and NE Massachusetts prior to the other guidance, and that really fits convention and climate when considering all. At larger synopsis ... the NAM also tends to NW biases beyond 48 hours. It is possible the mean frontal position corrects SE as we get closer in, in which case 'IF' the above aspects are now-cast verifying, they may also get accelerated by that, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I'm liking this one for the potential for wintry weather. You can keep the ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I'm glad I hedge conservatively with my first map last night....I knew this one would bump back north. Consistent with the binary theme of either south or north of me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Enjoy the sposh it’s the only sposh you’ve got. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/sposh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You can keep the ice Don't look out the window... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 12z GFS still has the cold press south, Better then 06z actually, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: The recent NAM runs hint though. TT's rendition of the 2-meter temperature, the model's taking until 12 Z to get the 0C isotherms to a rough Springfield-Nashua line, and 18Z to get it to south of the Boston-Hartford/Willimantic. Which I find a tad annoying. It's a high resolution hydrostratic model - which means ( in theory) it is integrating theta-e into the column. It should 'detect' the weight of the air, when the fresh low DPs flood east of the Whites...setting off the 'tuck' intrusion by the pressure rises in east of the Whites/CNE -->coast. It's failing to induce the ducting ('burrier') jet, so no SW tuck once the pressures rises in earnest from BGR-PSM. That fails both convention and climate to me. I mean... climate -haha. It's like, "rules: they're meant to be broken," and so too "behavior climatology" doesn't mean aspects will obey. But this is true for all models... The Euro could nail that frontal position, but blow it on these particulars. I think it is possible enough that the E end of Mohawk Trail in Massachusetts... somewhere E of North Adams and probably Orange east, might see the 0C isotherm a correct S of present synoptic scale detection. But earlier on not just sagging but growing toward the S-SW perhaps 4 to 6 hours sooner. I hate to say but the ICON ( oh Jesus-) looks more indicative.. hell, it even has the CAD nose +delta over central and NE Massachusetts prior to the other guidance, and that really fits convention and climate when considering all. At larger synopsis ... the NAM also tends to NW biases beyond 48 hours. It is possible the mean frontal position corrects SE as we get closer in, in which case 'IF' the above aspects are now-cast verifying, they may also get accelerated by that, too. The difference on the NAM though was that it clearly had the sfc front much further north than the euro...once it gets south of us, it drains pretty quick....the weird thing about the Euro was that it wasn't cooling the BL very fast when the sfc reflection was pinned down at he south coast and we had this monster arctic high to the north....where's the floodgates opening up for the ageo drain? It's like it wasn't there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS might actually be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: 12z GFS still has the cold press south, Better then 06z actually, Yeah kind of surprising to see it actually coming in colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah kind of surprising to see it actually coming in colder. Still has more of a "fropa" look than it did on some of those earlier runs though. It is interesting to see the high res/mesoscale models all over the place. Seems like the front placement and where (if?) we get a wave along it will be key. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah kind of surprising to see it actually coming in colder. If my memory is right, The GFS usually handles these types pretty well, It does have some Hi res mesos on its side too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The difference on the NAM though was that it clearly had the sfc front much further north than the euro...once it gets south of us, it drains pretty quick....the weird thing about the Euro was that it wasn't cooling the BL very fast when the sfc reflection was pinned down at he south coast and we had this monster arctic high to the north....where's the floodgates opening up for the ageo drain? It's like it wasn't there. Something off with the Euro. It's either too far south with the front, or too slow to bleed the arctic cold in behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 If it wins then we need to crown it and call it the king. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 30 minutes ago, dryslot said: And just think, All these cereals everyone eat daily, These grains that go to the mills, I'm sure there is a few people sitting there picking the insects off the wheat before there ground............ They probably just grind them into the cereal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: If it wins then we need to crown it and call it the king. The GFS also had 20" of snow for some of us 2 days ago. It hasn't been perfect either. The GFS/Euro debate is sort of funny now that the GFS has improved some and the Euro has done some weird things of late. Seems like in almost all of these cases a blend between the two (even 50/50) with a nod to the mesoscale models when appropriate is a really good way to go. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Windows open Thursday night? Early install. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The GFS also had 20" of snow for some of us 2 days ago. It hasn't been perfect either. The GFS/Euro debate is sort of funny now that the GFS has improved some and the Euro has done some weird things of late. Seems like in almost all of these cases a blend between the two (even 50/50) with a nod to the mesoscale models when appropriate is a really good way to go. The final solution very well might be a 50/50 compromise between GFS/Euro from about 2 days ago (assuming the 12z NAM isn't correct....if it is, then the Euro wins). GFS was clearly winning at this point yesterday, but since then we've seen more of a drift north, so now we're more like 50/50 compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The difference on the NAM though was that it clearly had the sfc front much further north than the euro...once it gets south of us, it drains pretty quick....the weird thing about the Euro was that it wasn't cooling the BL very fast when the sfc reflection was pinned down at he south coast and we had this monster arctic high to the north....where's the floodgates opening up for the ageo drain? It's like it wasn't there. Well all else aside ... ( was trying to be multi-faceted in the missive heh) ... that bold, right there, is precisely agreed and why it is 'annoying'. I don't get it... As far as the NAM ...yeah, that's why I mentioned at the end about it tending to a NW bias with fronts and cyclone tracking at range beyond 48 hours. I did say the exact same thing ( too ) that if the the NAM were to correct for that coming in closer range, it would accelerate - yup ... so there we go. I guess I feel this situation has a shot at lower end warning ice, but I feel the gradient being expressed over very short distances, while pushing S in time, will probably limit ice to upper advisory, and the snow to upper advisory, but neither actually in warning? ...if you get my meaning... Sometimes you get a kitchen sink event that forces the Warning hand from multi-variate impact spectrum... sumpin like that. I think it would be a lot easier of you lived N of ALB to PWM ...as that region may straight up no-contendo snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A lot of the hi-res meso models have a mesolow that goes out toward Cape Cod overnight tomorrow night and it drives the sfc cold down into MA....that's something that would have to be watched as it would create a big icing problem if it verified. 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: The GFS also had 20" of snow for some of us 2 days ago. It hasn't been perfect either. The GFS/Euro debate is sort of funny now that the GFS has improved some and the Euro has done some weird things of late. Seems like in almost all of these cases a blend between the two (even 50/50) with a nod to the mesoscale models when appropriate is a really good way to go. We joke but it used to be 70/30 euro so the fact we have moved to a more 50/50 split is a nod to the gfs camp. The thing is, we can use the gfs bias more easily since it typically will be n stream dominate and too far se while the euro may be too amped happy, it's not a clear cut nw bias though because it will bounce around a bit after it ticks se...more than it used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, ineedsnow said: 2008 Nah, nobody will get anything like 2008 ice unless this breaks absolutely "perfect" which it won't. Probably not enough QPF for that and the icing zone is pretty narrow...too much sleet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The final solution very well might be a 50/50 compromise between GFS/Euro from about 2 days ago (assuming the 12z NAM isn't correct....if it is, then the Euro wins). GFS was clearly winning at this point yesterday, but since then we've seen more of a drift north, so now we're more like 50/50 compromise. Yeah obviously there are some storms where there will be a clear "winner"... but in general I think the differences are overplayed and taking a blend is a pretty good approach more often than not. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The final solution very well might be a 50/50 compromise between GFS/Euro from about 2 days ago (assuming the 12z NAM isn't correct....if it is, then the Euro wins). GFS was clearly winning at this point yesterday, but since then we've seen more of a drift north, so now we're more like 50/50 compromise. I think you mentioned that may happen yesterday or the day before... if memory serves - something like, 'the game is not over though, if the GFS comes back tomorrow, even though it is winning now the result will shift more 50/50' LOL forgive me if I don't present a photographic memory but it was very close to that. Anyway, we might be seeing that... But, I also agree with Ryan's modulating in the meso tact, but would also add that some that has to be now-casted as even these higher resolution tools might not see 'tuck' jets. ( clearing I'm obsessing over this latter factor, I know heh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 CMC trending colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I think you mentioned that may happen yesterday or the day before... if memory serves - something like, the 'the game is not over though, if the GFS comes back tomorrow, even though it is winning now the result will shift more 50/50' LOL forgive me if I don't present a photo-tactic memory but it was very close to that. Anyway, we might be seeing that... But, I also agree with Ryan's modulating in the meso tact, but would also add that some that has to be now-casted as even these higher resolution tools might now see 'tuck' jets. ( clearing I'm obsessing over this latter factor, I know heh) Yes, I did mention that....and we often see late shifts north on these. The most "interesting" aspect of the storm in SNE is now all about the frontal boundary at the surface.....if we meso-low this thing with a finger of low pressure over the Cape and into the waters east of BOS, then it's going to be a lot of icing (sleet may cut down though?).. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 actually much colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, JC-CT said: Patience, grasshoppers Needs more salsa - a lot more. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 2008 Keep in mind that the major icing occurred overnight in 2008. This past Christmas it took awhile for the ice to accumulate because it was during the day. I think it would have been different if the xmas icing event had occurred later in the afternoon or evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Great Snow 1717 said: Keep in mind that the major icing occurred overnight in 2008. This past Christmas it took awhile for the ice to accumulate because it was during the day. I think it would have been different if the xmas icing event had occurred later in the afternoon or evening. doesnt make much difference I dont think day or night this time of year... a couple weeks from now maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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