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New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22


dryslot
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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You’re talking snow though right? A lot of us here are pulling for ice 

My guess is ice zone is probably pretty narrow in this system. That said, it’s possible that narrow zone ends up over SNE. NAM might be pretty icy at least for a chunk of SNE if we extrapolated another frame….but worthless endeavor on the NAM

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

That's further south than  12z

Congrats 

A little bit…not that there’s a 90hr NAM, but yeah, there was more suppression in NNE pre-overrunning. 
 

Nammy has a warm layer H8-75 as well. I’m not really worried about specifics, but this would be the type of system to be concerned about a warm tongue aloft while the CAA undercuts it.

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1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

arent you 50 miles or so north of that mixing line

Where Merrimack Co meets Belknap. My point is there’s not a lot of wiggle room if it shifts north. For giggles I looked at my 84hr sounding and it was near 0C around 800mb. But it’s the nam at 84 so who really giaf. lol

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

A little bit…not that there’s a 90hr NAM, but yeah, there was more suppression in NNE pre-overrunning. 
 

Nammy has a warm layer H8-75 as well. I’m not really worried about specifics, but this would be the type of system to be concerned about a warm tongue aloft while the CAA undercuts it.

H85 and H92 looked ok up this way that run.

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

My guess is ice zone is probably pretty narrow in this system. That said, it’s possible that narrow zone ends up over SNE. NAM might be pretty icy at least for a chunk of SNE if we extrapolated another frame….but worthless endeavor on the NAM

So you’re thinking rain or snow and not much ice ? Hopefully ice and snow sinks south 

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I’m less concerned about that layer…especially 925. Maybe 850 is a problem in a euro scenario. 

That could be if we get a stronger push aloft of some warmer air, But if it stays below freezing, That will be a lot of precip riding up and over.

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So you’re thinking rain or snow and not much ice ? Hopefully ice and snow sinks south 

There will be ice, just a relatively narrow zone that gets more than transitional ice. In scenarios where this gets pressed more, most locations would see ice during the transition to snow but only a small area will see prolonged icing. 
 

Anyways, we have another couple cycles to figure out where this is honing in on. Trends today were pretty incoherent. 

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