ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You’re talking snow though right? A lot of us here are pulling for ice My guess is ice zone is probably pretty narrow in this system. That said, it’s possible that narrow zone ends up over SNE. NAM might be pretty icy at least for a chunk of SNE if we extrapolated another frame….but worthless endeavor on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: That's further south than 12z Congrats 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: That's further south than 12z Congrats Yeah once the NAM starts trending, it never reverses course. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: arent you 50 miles or so north of that mixing line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Lava Rock said: Skiing Saddleback Friday Heading up tomorrow. Figured it might be the best day of the week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: That's further south than 12z Congrats A little bit…not that there’s a 90hr NAM, but yeah, there was more suppression in NNE pre-overrunning. Nammy has a warm layer H8-75 as well. I’m not really worried about specifics, but this would be the type of system to be concerned about a warm tongue aloft while the CAA undercuts it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: arent you 50 miles or so north of that mixing line Where Merrimack Co meets Belknap. My point is there’s not a lot of wiggle room if it shifts north. For giggles I looked at my 84hr sounding and it was near 0C around 800mb. But it’s the nam at 84 so who really giaf. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 My friend's high school daughter and her friends are driving to North Conway on Friday. They're going to have their hands full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: A little bit…not that there’s a 90hr NAM, but yeah, there was more suppression in NNE pre-overrunning. Nammy has a warm layer H8-75 as well. I’m not really worried about specifics, but this would be the type of system to be concerned about a warm tongue aloft while the CAA undercuts it. H85 and H92 looked ok up this way that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 NAM was a bit weaker down south this time, which helps. Nice trend to start the 18z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: H85 and H92 looked ok up this way that run. Yeah I’m less concerned about that layer…especially 925. Maybe 850 is a problem in a euro scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: My guess is ice zone is probably pretty narrow in this system. That said, it’s possible that narrow zone ends up over SNE. NAM might be pretty icy at least for a chunk of SNE if we extrapolated another frame….but worthless endeavor on the NAM So you’re thinking rain or snow and not much ice ? Hopefully ice and snow sinks south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 NAM looks great for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Yeah I’m less concerned about that layer…especially 925. Maybe 850 is a problem in a euro scenario. That could be if we get a stronger push aloft of some warmer air, But if it stays below freezing, That will be a lot of precip riding up and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: NAM looks great for NNE. Yeah, That looked like it would be good right down into CNE too, It was just getting going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Don't remember the last time we had a rain to ice to snow that was significant on the frozen end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: So you’re thinking rain or snow and not much ice ? Hopefully ice and snow sinks south There will be ice, just a relatively narrow zone that gets more than transitional ice. In scenarios where this gets pressed more, most locations would see ice during the transition to snow but only a small area will see prolonged icing. Anyways, we have another couple cycles to figure out where this is honing in on. Trends today were pretty incoherent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: NAM looks great for NNE. Yeah if this is before the synoptic wave moves through would be nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 lol at the RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: lol at the RGEM. Parakeets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 ICON is more amped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 43 minutes ago, Digityman said: Heading up tomorrow. Figured it might be the best day of the week. We could switch tix to Sat, but cold (likely 0-5F) and wind, despite sun is still very cold. Skied that mtn many times in the past and it's a cold place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ICON is more amped Barely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Gfs will come in warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Gfs will come in warmer early on but looks that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 30 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: lol at the RGEM. That’s the fear for sure that it goes back to more of a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 24 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: ICON is more amped That's a decent difference too with the wave. Absolutely croaks RT 2 in Mass and into NNE. Greenfield to HubbDave to Ray and up to Dendrite is 14-16". 12z vs. 18z at the same time: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: early on but looks that way This is going to wipe out all the snowpack . These always continue amping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS actually looks colder through 54h. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I will be proud of NNE if they score a good one, even if it eats my pack. Go NNE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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