RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, JC-CT said: In lower levels, models are starting to converge as NAM/ECMWF have trended colder, albeit not quite as cold as GFS. Forecast soundings show very favorable signal for a rapid transition from rain to sleet (perhaps a brief period of freezing rain but that would be very short lived). Note the warm nose aloft (+2 to 3C) and a deepening near surface cold layer (-8 to -10C) up to 950 mb. Models also show a good slug of QPF once the transition occurs, so this could be one of those rare cases where sleet persists for several hours before changing to snow as warm nose eventually cools. How fast this all takes place is key as to how long it takes for sleet to change to snow and obviously impacts accumulations of each. At this point, we are becoming more confident that higher snow/sleet accumulations will be north of Mass Pike, especially along and north of Route 2 where 2-4" totals are possible. Totals should lower to 1- 3" along Mass Pike and 1" or less farther south, but keep in mind these totals may need to be bumped up a little in subsequent forecasts should colder trend continue on models. It`s also possible that we see more sleet vs snow along and south of Mass Pike, perhaps as much as 1-2" of sleet alone. The combination of rapidly falling temperatures Friday could result in a flash freeze and the transition to snow/sleet is expected to result in hazardous travel. Since timing is centered around the morning commute and into afternoon, and could have a significant impact, we will issue a Winter Storm Watch for our northern CT, northern RI, and all of our MA zones except south coast, Cape Cod, and Islands (including the larger metro areas). Note that icing from any freezing rain should be minimal (just a few hundredths) and we do not expect any impacts from ice accretion on trees or power lines. The flash freeze is legit. That would be cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: 6z euro temps Cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Cold! lol ok well could you share if 32f Isotherm is further north or south v 0z euro for Friday 6z/12z times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: lol ok well could you share if 32f Isotherm is further north or south v 0z euro for Friday 6z/12z times Slightly north, 6z 3hr is out on TT now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: How are you washing away 12-15” of snow with temps near 40 for a few hours? You’re better than this I don’t think you wash away 0% chance for you. I’m more worried down in southern ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 @ORH_wxman What’s the precedent with heavy rain and temps 35-40? How effective is that a pack eating ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 33 minutes ago, JC-CT said: 36 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Aloft it is. The surface is different I think. If anything, might be more setup for ZR there, if these trends aloft hold. Yeah that’s been my point.. I’m talking surface . Meaning more ice. I don’t think south of 90 sees much snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: @ORH_wxman What’s the precedent with heavy rain and temps 35-40? How effective is that a pack eating ? The 38 dewpoint is the magic number. Dews under that aren’t a huge damager for short periods 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah that’s been my point.. I’m talking surface . Meaning more ice. I don’t think south of 90 sees much snow Ice meaning IP? BOX is saying it will cool quickly up to 950mb = sleet, not fzra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah that’s been my point.. I’m talking surface . Meaning more ice. I don’t think south of 90 sees much snow The models have been slower overall with the cold push. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: The model ma still have been slower overall with the cold push. Yeah - definitely a warmer solution overnight in the low levels too. A much slower cold push outside of the GFS. Really would like so see some of the hires modeling get a bit colder sooner today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: @ORH_wxman What’s the precedent with heavy rain and temps 35-40? How effective is that a pack eating ? It eats pack like Pac-Man eats ghosts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah - definitely a warmer solution overnight in the low levels too. A much slower cold push outside of the GFS. Really would like so see some of the hires modeling get a bit colder sooner today. Your boy says it trended colder overnight. I don’t know who to believe… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Your boy says it trended colder overnight. I don’t know who to believe… lol that's not a difficult one. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Your boy says it trended colder overnight. I don’t know who to believe… Believe in me, my boy. Believe in me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: lol that's not a difficult one. Box did too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Box did too You always say they are terrible so… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 whew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Believe in me, my boy. Believe in me. I do papi, I do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You always say they are terrible so… We shall see if your 1-2 plain rain and 50’s work out. Maybe you’ll be right. I know where my money is not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: We shall see if your 1-2 plain rain and 50’s work out. Maybe you’ll be right. I know where my money is not lol your wouldn't-get-the-cold-press-wrong NAM is disgusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Congrats Dendrite 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We shall see if your 1-2 plain rain and 50’s work out. Maybe you’ll be right. I know where my money is not lol I hope I am wrong with over 1” of rain and upper 30s. If I could sign for mostly sleet, I would. I just don’t see the cold push until late in the game and by then, it’s not that eventful. I do think the flash freeze potential is real though and something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 For south of the pike, it probably matters less how warm it is initially and more how heavy the precip is after the cold push gets going...but this is certainly not a cold start to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 35 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: @ORH_wxman What’s the precedent with heavy rain and temps 35-40? How effective is that a pack eating ? Its all about the dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: For south of the pike, it probably matters less how warm it is initially and more how heavy the precip is after the cold push gets going...but this is certainly not a cold start to 12z. The orientation is more SW-NE, which limits the cold press coming in prior to precip. meh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 we melt on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: For south of the pike, it probably matters less how warm it is initially and more how heavy the precip is after the cold push gets going...but this is certainly not a cold start to 12z. I wouldn’t mind a more amped initial push to keep the rains nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Maybe we get a cold push today by that arctic front? Would be nice to see. Not much has gone right here these late two systems, so apologies for some of the negativity. But I’m not encouraged currently with the trends. Maybe that changes today? I’ll sell any real ice that’s for sure. That is always very elusive. Sleet more probable. The possibility is there that the Euro could be way wrong again with this system, like it was here for Saturday’s storm. 14 hrs before Saturday’s storm started, it gave me a raging blizzard with 18+ Inches coming, then 6 hrs later it pulled the rug. I suppose it could go the other(opposite) way with this too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Its all about the dews. I'll show you my dews if you show me yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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