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New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22


dryslot
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26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Shabbs brought up good point on text . TX last Feb. Said euro got destroyed by all other models. Had them torching and we know how that one ended up . All depends on position of arctic front 

From what I've seen over the years, Euro can be slow to the party in cold press events... If fact, historically, true cold presses with solid arctic high pressure involved, tend to press more than modeled unless associated with a much stronger low than modeled right now.  Back in the day, the old retired NGM was the model of choice in cold press setups...

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49 minutes ago, drstuess said:

A concern, but we are a little more resilient to cold temps than ERCOT (tx). Their nat gas generation and supply fell off line due to cold temps, while we are weatherized however just constrained from a supply perspective (pipeline capacity, competition with heating, etc). Most of our generators are dual fuel which means we can run on oil, making us sensitive financially (running on oil is expensive) but less from a generating capacity and resiliancy side. That speaks nothing to the distribution side of the grid where we suck, but that is different from blackouts and load shedding like ERCOT had to do.

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
 

I'd be more comfortable if we had the 1998 version of Central Maine Power - they were absolute champions in that winter's ice storm.  However, they've now become a dumpster fire, with the flames ignited by the practices of their over-the-ocean owners.

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6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

From what I've seen over the years, Euro can be slow to the party in cold press events... If fact, historically, true cold presses with solid arctic high pressure involved, tend to press more than modeled unless associated with a much stronger low than modeled right now.  Back in the day, the old retired NGM was the model of choice in cold press setups...

Sure hope that’s the case with this. We don’t want 12-30” of snow pack wiped out in less than a day 

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I think the Euro is way too amped given the high is strong 

 

Again, the high strength itself isn't the question....it's the orientation of it...does it press down to the east prior to the wave gaining latitude? The Euro says not enough outside of NNE.

It might be too amped, but don't make the mistake of just citing the high strength...it doesn't mean much if it's not established over our region prior to the storm. If that high was sitting up over Quebec City prior to the storm, then I'd say it matters way more.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Again, the high strength itself isn't the question....it's the orientation of it...does it press down to the east prior to the wave gaining latitude? The Euro says not enough outside of NNE.

It might be too amped, but don't make the mistake of just citing the high strength...it doesn't mean much if it's not established over our region prior to the storm. If that high was sitting up over Quebec City prior to the storm, then I'd say it matters way more.

He may mean its likely to press more aggressively given its strength.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah but press where? Yeah, it might might press more, but it does it press BEHIND the storm and not in front of it?

Obviously I mean more in front of it....hence "aggressively". Waiting for the storm to pass isn't aggressive. I'm not saying I expect this, just trying to get where he is coming from.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Obviously I mean more in front of it....hence "aggressively". Waiting for the storm to pass isn't aggressive. I'm not saying I expect this, just trying to get where he is coming from.

Yeah I know what he was talking about....but it doesn't really mean anything. Strong highs don't have to press more than models show them. Models could just be overdoing the high.

I tend to put more stock in the high strength and magnitude of cold when it's already established over us. Once they get established, they are VERY hard to move. IF this one can get established out in front, then its not going to be rain....but we obviously don't know if it gets established or not.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I know what he was talking about....but it doesn't really mean anything. Strong highs don't have to press more than models show them. Models could just be overdoing the high.

I tend to put more stock in the high strength and magnitude of cold when it's already established over us. Once they get established, they are VERY hard to move. IF this one can get established out in front, then its not going to be rain....but we obviously don't know if it gets established or not.

Well, that's the thing...but if they aren't, then perhaps Tippy's correction faster is faster arrival. Personally, I don't feel good about it with the euro that amped. Sure, its probably too amped, but closer to reality than your 90's soft jazz.

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The Euro/GFS have totally different evolutions in the northern stream and where to set up the confluence. To Will's point the high on the GFS is able to develop over QC with enhanced confluence at H5... while the Euro is far more amplified with the jet and the entire thing goes north and the high never presses into New England. Tough forecast.

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

The Euro/GFS have totally different evolutions in the northern stream and where to set up the confluence. To Will's point the high on the GFS is able to develop over QC with enhanced confluence at H5... while the Euro is far more amplified with the jet and the entire thing goes north and the high never presses into New England. Tough forecast.

always seems to be the case lately 

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

If anything the EPS is further north than 6z on the 12z run.

Keeps Phin and I barely in the southern snow zone in the mean... but definitely more NW members keeping the main snow axis in the St Lawrence River Valley.

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Members 19 and 35 have the right idea.     :snowing:

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10 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

The Euro/GFS have totally different evolutions in the northern stream and where to set up the confluence. To Will's point the high on the GFS is able to develop over QC with enhanced confluence at H5... while the Euro is far more amplified with the jet and the entire thing goes north and the high never presses into New England. Tough forecast.

Yep... With this setup and modeled differences, no need for anybody across SNE to suggest a confident forecast for a couple more days.  At this time, I'm just running with the range of possibilities; suggesting a transition event, but pretty strongly staying away from an all or mostly snow event.

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