dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: doesn't that seem kind of early? I'd have expected to wake up to them tomorrow morning. No, You can lock these in quite early Mahk, Its a SWFE. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, IowaStorm05 said: You're actually really freaking me out too dude. This model run isnt funny and fortunately I still think it is unlikely but this would be really bad. Sorry bud, I'll try not to post anything that might scare you. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: No, You can lock these in quite early Mahk, Its a SWFE. Loveses them. Thank you for that, it’s clicked in now. Gonna be some pack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just based on the snow maps, doesn’t look like GYX or BTV are buying the more southerly GFS solutions. Cutoff for good snow is in central to southern NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, PhineasC said: GFS looks great for a lot of people. Nice runs at 18z so far. Looks good for you northern guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said: You're actually really freaking me out too dude. This model run isnt funny and fortunately I still think it is unlikely but this would be really bad. Really? C’mon chief, grow a pair. Do you really think you’re gonna get an inch of ice? That almost never ever pan’s out. Don’t you worry about that happening, cuz It’s not happening. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Just based on the snow maps, doesn’t look like GYX or BTV are buying the more southerly GFS solutions. Cutoff for good snow is in central to southern NH. I like Rutland to Dendy and northward. ICON actually looked about my thoughts for the main snow line despite the model and it’s history. Could get some latent heat burps north too in the last 36 hours. The south push has stopped and she starts ticking back north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, das said: 4" of sleet in MD (2.9" liquid equivalent) in late February lasted until mid-April back in the 90's. It was glorious. 2-3:1 ratios, Imagine that as snow. 9 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Sorry bud, I'll try not to post anything that might scare you. Naked and afraid? 6 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Just based on the snow maps, doesn’t look like GYX or BTV are buying the more southerly GFS solutions. Cutoff for good snow is in central to southern NH. I'll make a believer out of you yet, Your just a stubborn Terrapin......... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Naked and afraid? I'll make a believer out of you yet, Your just a stubborn Terrapin......... Maybe a little conservative unless there’s significant non-snow. 1.25-1.5 qpf here. A little low for a swfe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Just based on the snow maps, doesn’t look like GYX or BTV are buying the more southerly GFS solutions. Cutoff for good snow is in central to southern NH. I noticed that too. They went out of their way to carve coastal York County and SNH out of the watch area, and only show about 4-5" for greater Portland (which does sound about right for a garden-variety SWFE around here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Totals will be uniform over a vast area too, Not like last weekends blizzard..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Totals will be uniform over a vast area too, Not like last weekends blizzard..........lol only longitude-wise, bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 47 minutes ago, JC-CT said: pretty nasty for NW CT verbatim yeah I'm not liking the ice solutions, believe we'll have more sleet than IP here, then maybe a couple inches on top of SN, but not liking the trends, do like where I am compared to the rest of CT, these SWFEs usually follow a path along 84 with the line, we'll see if the press wins out, hard to forecast these 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Really? C’mon chief, grow a pair. Do you really think you’re gonna get an inch of ice? That almost never ever pan’s out. Don’t you worry about that happening, cuz It’s not happening. If you don't show me the heartwarming respect I deserve I am going to the Franklin Zoo and shall climb into the gorilla enclosure at once and beat my chest profusely while naked and making hoot sounds. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, tavwtby said: yeah I'm not liking the ice solutions, believe we'll have more sleet than IP here, then maybe a couple inches on top of SN, but not liking the trends, do like where I am compared to the rest of CT, these SWFEs usually follow a path along 84 with the line, we'll see if the press wins out, hard to forecast these yeah and they are usually sleet. In swfe-heavy years, I'm the sleet capitol of the world. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, IowaStorm05 said: If you don't show me the heartwarming respect I deserve I am going to the Franklin Zoo and shall climb into the gorilla enclosure at once and beat my chest profusely while naked and making hoot sounds. just don't tease the bear 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Maybe a little conservative unless there’s significant non-snow. 1.25-1.5 qpf here. A little low for a swfe I would not expect them to go balls in out of the gate, Ratios won't be real high in this especially from the start but should get better as we get colder thru the column but how much precip falls before that is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: only longitude-wise, bro Up here its will be Lat driven with its trajectory, Last weekends was more Longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: yeah and they are usually sleet. In swfe-heavy years, I'm the sleet capitol of the world. ALY hoisted WSW for like Rutland north, has me at .1-.25" of ZR, and less than an inch of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Where do you guys come up with these weenie intermediate runs of the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Where do you guys come up with these weenie intermediate runs of the Canadian? meteocentre 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: meteocentre Jesus. Too many models and runs of them lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Where do you guys come up with these weenie intermediate runs of the Canadian? You nee a P.O box in Canada to view. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Jesus. Too many models and runs of them lol. True, but the 18z rgem is no better than the 18z ggem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, JC-CT said: True, but the 18z rgem is no better than the 18z ggem. Duh, Yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Duh, Yeah Well I see mets referring to the 6z/18z rgem all the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Well I see mets referring to the 6z/18z rgem all the time The GGEM is just what runs down the RGEM's leg after hr 84 out to 240. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Well I see mets referring to the 6z/18z rgem all the time It’s just because it’s hi res. I’m not sure intermediate runs of the GGEM will ever improve a forecast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 27 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Loveses them. Thank you for that, it’s clicked in now. Gonna be some pack 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 you would think the snow pack would help with the low level cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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