78Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ICON was a solid tick warmer too....pretty clear 18z trend so far. Looks like a lot of sleet on the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: looks like the gfs, i don't think it is though. href? It's the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Yeah Icon was lots of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 58 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Hard pass on ice. Bring me all the sleet. 4" of sleet in MD (2.9" liquid equivalent) in late February lasted until mid-April back in the 90's. It was glorious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Ryan is throwing this out there Looks like a blend of the GFS, Euro and UK at that hour. Ignoring CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Dryslot Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 I'm thinking rain to 2" IP to 2-4" SN for south of the pike for right now. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 40 minutes ago, JC-CT said: this is...odd looking It as if a whole bunch of hot air is eminating from central Connecticut. How could that be? 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Icon was still pretty cold. Esp low levels but it was definitely warmer than 12z. I can envision the midlevel warmth winning out but low level cold oozing down so that we end up with a bit more IP/ZR than currently modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Icon was still pretty cold. Esp low levels but it was definitely warmer than 12z. I can envision the midlevel warmth winning out but low level cold oozing down so that we end up with a bit more IP/ZR than currently modeled. That’s my thought. Little bit of cold rain then ice . Ends as 1-3” snow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 well let's hope 0z is better i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18zGFS making the expected march northward here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 pretty nasty for NW CT verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 18zGFS making the expected march northward here. wHiCh MoDeL wOn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Seems overdone, but @Damage In Tollandmust be besides himself. That is, if he even looks at models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: wHiCh MoDeL wOn? Wasn’t much of a move north. A little bit lol….we’ll see if the euro tries to come south again but it seems like 18z is the trend north cycle today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Wasn’t much of a move north. A little bit lol….we’ll see if the euro tries to come south again but it seems like 18z is the trend north cycle today. It was sort of more north through like 66, and then slunk down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Wasn’t much of a move north. A little bit lol….we’ll see if the euro tries to come south again but it seems like 18z is the trend north cycle today. Goal posts are narrowing and it’s all about the uncertain fate of the chickens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 It certainly does seem like it’s a trend a little back to the north but I’ve noticed on many of the model runs today people have been saying “more amped up, warmer“. But then in the end it’s not that warm. That says to me that we might get the best case scenario with a amped up short wave and a strong cold press. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, JC-CT said: pretty nasty for NW CT verbatim And NE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, Modfan2 said: And NE CT Well it kind of looks like during the fzra period for NE CT, it comes in a shorter burst of heavier precip than NW CT. So I'd guess accretion wouldn't be as bad even though qpf falling as fzra might be comparable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 GFS looks great for a lot of people. Nice runs at 18z so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: GFS looks great for a lot of people. Nice runs at 18z so far. Looks great for the Ohio River Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Seems overdone, but @Damage In Tollandmust be besides himself. That is, if he even looks at models. No thank you. Not interested in this outcome. Let's get that warm air up to at least Norwich. Kevin can have all the ice he wants. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 28 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Seems overdone, but @Damage In Tollandmust be besides himself. That is, if he even looks at models. I see your dry January has kicked off Feb very wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 That would be an interesting storm. Low level profile is such that is would be a mix of OES and pellets lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I see your dry January has kicked off Feb very wet No, actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 CMC might be a tick colder at 18z hard to tell though either way it would be a heck of a ice storm here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 47 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: CMC might be a tick colder at 18z hard to tell though either way it would be a heck of a ice storm here Like the previous storm this will waver north/south and end up being a nowcast at the end of the week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Seems overdone, but @Damage In Tollandmust be besides himself. That is, if he even looks at models. You're actually really freaking me out too dude. This model run isnt funny and fortunately I still think it is unlikely but this would be really bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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