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New England Overrunning Event 02/03-02/04/22


dryslot
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The low level cold is pretty robust and filtering in throughout the storm.  This seems to be the recipe for a significant ice event for someone if it comes in ahead of the precip which seems to be the solution models are converging upon.  Details on location TBD but seems to be CT up to Rt 2 is the corridor to watch.  Hopefully it's IP and not ZR.

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Interesting, Euro looks like it would be a lot of ice and then a few inches of snow around my area and then more snow to the north. I thought for sure the outlier gfs would move to the Euro, but it looks like the goalposts are narrowing, but closer to a colder gfs solution than the warmer ideas. Maybe I should be a little more open minded towards it like many of you said. 

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GFS is winning the battle so far, but it's not over.

If we look at the past 24 hours....the GFS has only come north about 40-50 miles from the 12z solution yesterday while Euro has come south about double that amount.

But all it takes if for the Euro to hold steady next run and the GFS jumps north 40 miles, and we're about tied with a 50/50 compromise.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is winning the battle so far, but it's not over.

If we look at the past 24 hours....the GFS has only come north about 40-50 miles from the 12z solution yesterday while Euro has come south about double that amount.

But all it takes if for the Euro to hold steady next run and the GFS jumps north 40 miles, and we're about tied with a 50/50 compromise.

Viewership for this storm is on the low side... NCEP "weather executives" are preparing the NAM for a region wide dump of snow at 18z followed by a cutting the low through Toronto at 00z to "spice things up." ;)

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27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

And know the GFS coming back towards the euro last 3 runs, In the end its going to be in the middle ground give or take.

trend-gfs-2022020100-f096.sn10_acc.us_ne.gif

I'd say middle ground will be 65%gfs coldest solution and 35% euro warmest solution.. so more a a cave to GFS unless gfs and euro both go north til game time.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is winning the battle so far, but it's not over.

If we look at the past 24 hours....the GFS has only come north about 40-50 miles from the 12z solution yesterday while Euro has come south about double that amount.

But all it takes if for the Euro to hold steady next run and the GFS jumps north 40 miles, and we're about tied with a 50/50 compromise.

We hear that often...blend the two there you go!  How often does that really pan out and verify?

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is winning the battle so far, but it's not over.

If we look at the past 24 hours....the GFS has only come north about 40-50 miles from the 12z solution yesterday while Euro has come south about double that amount.

But all it takes if for the Euro to hold steady next run and the GFS jumps north 40 miles, and we're about tied with a 50/50 compromise.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is winning the battle so far, but it's not over.

If we look at the past 24 hours....the GFS has only come north about 40-50 miles from the 12z solution yesterday while Euro has come south about double that amount.

But all it takes if for the Euro to hold steady next run and the GFS jumps north 40 miles, and we're about tied with a 50/50 compromise.

And in the end, I think this is where it will be, You could have said this even yesterday as you had the goal post of GFS south and Euro north, I think you had said or Scott said somewhere in the middle.

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36 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

People get too stuck on one model having to cave to another, when usually they are all moving around in different ways trying to find a solution.

People love the horse race. 

32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What if GFS goes north? Who is King?

We’re evolving. Monarchy is so 2012.

Coalition government ftw.

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